威廉姆斯预计，受移民减少拖累劳动力扩张影响，今年美国经济增速将较2024年放缓。Williams stated that the impact of the trade, immigration, and regulatory policies of the Trump administration is still unclear, which has intensified the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.
On Friday, New York Fed President Williams stated that the rapid changes in immigration, trade, and fiscal policy have a high degree of uncertainty regarding their impact on the economy, but the current MMF stance is appropriate and provides sufficient flexibility for the Federal Reserve to respond to changing circumstances.
At the Bahamas Macroeconomic Econometrics Conference, Williams pointed out: "Given the strong labor market and inflation still slightly above the 2% target, the current moderately restrictive MMF is completely appropriate. This allows us to adjust our policies calmly to ensure the achievement of our dual mandate." This statement echoes the remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this week, indicating that employment and growth are solid, and long-term inflation expectations are anchored.
Williams expects that the slowdown in US economic growth this year, compared to 2024, will be affected by reduced immigration dragging down labor force expansion. He also warned that the turning effects of the Trump administration's trade, immigration, and regulatory policies remain unclear, adding to the uncertainty of the economic outlook.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive week, after having cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points by the end of last year. Policymakers raised inflation expectations for this year and lowered growth forecasts, but maintained the median expectation of a 50 basis point cut within the year. The dot plot shows that eight officials support a maximum of one cut or no cuts this year.
The Federal Reserve announced that starting in April, it will reduce the limit for MMF reduction from $25 billion per month to $5 billion, while maintaining the mortgage-backed securities reduction size at $35 billion. Williams called this move a "natural step" in the balance sheet reduction process, emphasizing that it does not affect the MMF stance.
Earlier this month, Williams stated that tariffs could raise inflation, but the final tax rate and economic response are in doubt. The market is concerned that the new round of tariffs that Trump plans to announce next month will suppress growth.
As the policy fog clouds the market, the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see mode" is undergoing multiple tests.
Editor/Somer
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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