从估值角度来看，尽管软件和科技股还未达到传统意义上的低价，但已趋于合理。像主要超大规模云服务提供商(如BNP Paribas published a Research Report stating that the performance of Software and Technology stocks will be poor in early 2025, but Industry valuations have become reasonable, and investment catalysts may emerge in the second half after April.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, BNP Paribas released a research report stating that the performance of the Software and Technology stocks was poor at the beginning of this year; however, the industry valuation has approached a reasonable level, and there may be a turnaround in the second half of the year.
The report points out that at the start of the year, Software and Technology stocks faced a difficult situation. The performance of Software stocks was affected by cautious attitudes towards demand improvement, conservative expectations regarding contributions from Generative AI (GenAI), capacity constraints, and the strong dollar putting pressure on earnings. These factors made it difficult to elevate corporate earnings expectations at the beginning of the year, with some even experiencing downward revisions. As March arrived, new challenges continued, and both investors and corporations entered a 'wait-and-see mode,' awaiting further clarity on tariff policies and economic impacts, as well as the release of the first quarter earnings reports.
From a valuation perspective, although Software and Technology Stocks have not yet reached traditional Low Stock Price levels, they are approaching reasonable valuations. Major hyperscale Cloud Computing Service providers (such as$Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、$Oracle (ORCL.US)$) The non-GAAP PE ratio for 2026 is approximately 20 times, while some Saas companies (such as $Adobe (ADBE.US)$、$Salesforce (CRM.US)$and$Workday (WDAY.US)$The free cash flow yield has reached approximately 6%. The market is concerned about the increasing capital intensity of large Cloud Computing Service providers andROI(Concerns about ROI) still exist, as well as doubts about the seat-based business model of SaaS providers and the disruption caused by GenAI.
Although the overall market performance is poor, the bank believes that attractive valuation opportunities have emerged in the Industry. The momentum in the GenAI field remains strong,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$As company performance shows strong demand for AI, many enterprises have also achieved monetization results in GenAI. However, macroeconomic uncertainties have made investors concerned that the promotion of GenAI applications may be affected.
Looking ahead, the bank expects potential investment opportunities to arise in April. Investors may start to look for catalysts for the second half of the year after the April 2 tariff deadline and the announcement of first-quarter Earnings Reports. On one hand, hyperscale Cloud Computing Service providers, such as Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and Google (GOOGL.US), are expected to achieve accelerated growth due to alleviated capacity constraints; on the other hand, Stocks related to government spending, such as$Accenture (ACN.US)$、$ServiceNow (NOW.US)$and$Intuit (INTU.US)$, if spending cut policies ease, may welcome a rebound.
French bank BNP Paribas rated Google, Microsoft, and Oracle as "Outperform" and maintained a "Neutral" rating on Amazon, but believes that its AWS business may accelerate growth in the second half of the year. In the data sector, the bank is bullish.$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$and$Shopify (SHOP.US)$It believes that their valuations have fallen to attractive levels. In the SaaS sector, it gives Salesforce and Workday an "Outperform" rating.
However, the bank still holds a cautious attitude towards Meta, stating that its GenAI monetization prospects are unclear, and that growth may slow down in the short term, with profit margins potentially decreasing.
Editor/jayden
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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