另外，麥格理將海螺水泥2024至2026財年盈利預測分別下調34%、22%及25%，以反映銷量預測下調，對其目標價由25元上調至27.2元。該行亦將華潤建材科技(01313.HK)今明兩年的盈利預測下調25.6%及26%，並引入2027年淨利潤預測為28億元人民幣；維持對其目標價2.4元。該行維持對上述兩隻個股「跑贏大市」評級。Macquarie published a Research Report indicating that construction activities in the mainland rebounded after the Spring Festival, matching historical levels, with leading Indicators such as construction Machinery showing strong growth. Cement companies in East China raised cement prices at the beginning of March, while South China also experienced two rounds of price increases in the past few weeks. The bank believes that the increase in cement prices is mainly due to the re-implementation of supply control measures from the second half of last year, with leading companies agreeing to differentiate their production after intense price wars, as well as the rebound in construction activities after the Spring Festival off-season.
In addition, the bank mentioned that CONCH CEMENT's (00914.HK) General Manager Zhu Shengli recently visited Guangxi cement companies to discuss the outlook for supply-side control. The bank expects that supply control will continue in the future, supporting cement prices, with low inventories in the Southwest, Western, and Northern regions contributing to the increase in cement prices.
Macquarie stated that the central government's support policies for the domestic property market effectively reduced the decline in new home sales, but substantial improvements have yet to be seen. From January to February this year, new construction volume still fell by 29% year-on-year. At the same time, the central government's debt reduction measures may improve local governments' balance sheets and provide space for growth in Infrastructure investment, but the current impact is minimal.
Additionally, Macquarie has lowered its profit forecasts for CONCH CEMENT for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026 by 34%, 22%, and 25% respectively, to reflect the downward revision of sales forecasts, raising its Target Price from 25 yuan to 27.2 yuan. The bank also lowered the profit forecasts for CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313.HK) for this year and next year by 25.6% and 26%, and introduced a net profit forecast for 2027 of 2.8 billion yuan; maintaining its Target Price at 2.4 yuan. The bank maintains an "outperform" rating on the above two stocks.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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