According to Clarksons data, as of the end of February 2025, the Clarksons new ship price Index was reported at 188.36 points, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%, but a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous month. In terms of ship types, container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and liquefied gas carriers all saw a slight decrease compared to the previous month.
According to the Zheshang Research Reports, based on Clarkson data, by the end of February 2025, the Clarkson New Ship Price Index reported 188.36 points, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.54%; it has grown 48.19% since 2021, reaching a historical peak of 98.36% percentile. By ship type, container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and LNG carriers have seen slight month-on-month declines. The number of new orders received in February decreased by 77% year-on-year, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday. It is noteworthy that the government work report in 2025 first mentioned "deep sea technology," with deep-sea equipment expected to experience significant development. China CSSC and its subsidiaries are the main leading units for the design, research, and production of deep-sea equipment in China, and are expected to benefit from enhanced policies.
The main points from Zheshang are as follows:
Monthly ship prices: By the end of February 2025, the new ship price index reported 188.36 points, an approximately 3% year-on-year growth.
According to Clarkson data, by the end of February 2025, the Clarkson New Ship Price Index reported 188.36 points, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%, but a month-on-month decrease of 0.54%; it has grown 48.19% since 2021, reaching a historical peak of 98.36% percentile. By ship type, container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and LNG carriers have seen slight month-on-month declines.
Detailed ship price data by type: The new ship price index for container ships reported 118.31, down 0.27% month-on-month and up 5.26% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 92.16%; the new ship price index for tankers reported 220.98, down 0.86% month-on-month and up 4.54% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 86.54%; the new ship price index for bulk carriers reported 172.69, down 0.25% month-on-month and up 3.96% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 72.07%; the new ship price index for LPG carriers reported 204.17, down 0.82% month-on-month and up 2.05% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 98.3%; the new ship price for LNG carriers reported 0.256 billion USD, down 0.39% month-on-month and down 3.4% year-on-year, reaching a historical peak of 96.6%. Subsequently, tightening ship availability and inflationary pressures are expected to drive ship prices upward.
New Orders: The volume of new orders received in February 2025 decreased by 77% year-on-year, considered mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday.
According to the latest data from Clarksons, in February 2025, the total new Orders for all ship types (over 1000 GT) was approximately 3.7 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 76.9%. Among them, new Orders for container ships were approximately 2.54 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 176%, accounting for 69% of all ship types; new Orders for tankers were approximately 0.6 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 93.7%, accounting for 16%; new Orders for bulk carriers were 0 million deadweight tons; new Orders for LNG ships were approximately 0.28 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 84.4%, accounting for 8%; other ship types had new Orders of 0.28 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 50.2%, accounting for 8%.
Handheld Orders: As of the end of February 2025, the global handheld Orders were approximately 0.367 billion deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%.
According to the latest data from Clarksons, as of February 28, 2025, the handheld Orders for all ship types were approximately 0.367 billion deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 1.93%. Among them, the handheld Orders for container ships were approximately 92.48 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.59%, accounting for 25% of all ship types; for tankers (10k+DWT), the handheld Orders were 97.75 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 79.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.88%, accounting for 27%; the handheld Orders for bulk carriers were approximately 0.111 billion deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.25%, accounting for 30%; for LNG ships, the handheld Orders were approximately 31.8 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2%, accounting for 9%; other ship types had handheld Orders of 34.05 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.28%, accounting for 9%.
Completion and delivery: In February 2025, the global completion and delivery was approximately 4.05 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%.
According to the latest data from Clarksons, in February 2025, the global completion and delivery was approximately 4.05 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%. Among them, the completion and delivery for container ships were approximately 0.117 million TEU, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%; for tankers (10k+DWT), the completion and delivery was approximately 0.543 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; the completion and delivery for bulk carriers was approximately 1.75 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%; the completion and delivery for LNG ships was approximately 0.28 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%.
Investment advice.
Currently, the shipbuilding Industry is experiencing high prosperity, with multiple ship types gradually increasing in production volume. Shipyards' profitability is continuously improving, and the tight supply and demand may drive ship prices to achieve new highs, resulting in high performance elasticity for leading companies. Additionally, new ship Orders are trending towards larger, high-end, and dual-fuel designs, and leading companies are globally ahead in large shipbuilding technology. The future competitiveness for high-quality high-price Orders is strong, with China's high-capacity and high-tech shipyards expected to benefit first.
In terms of competitive landscape, the integration of ship assembly Assets is in full swing, and the competition landscape in the shipbuilding Industry is expected to optimize. Furthermore, the integration of assembly Assets under China CSSC is expected to enhance internal collaboration, improve economies of scale, and strengthen lean management. It is worth mentioning that the 2025 government work report first mentioned "deep-sea Technology," suggesting that deep-sea equipment is likely to usher in significant development. The China CSSC Group and its subsidiaries are the main leaders in the design, research, and production of deep-sea equipment in China, and are expected to benefit from increased policy support.
Regarding the symbols
Key recommendations include China CSSC (600150.SH), China Shipbuilding Industry (601989.SH), China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power (600482.SH), China Marine Information Electronics (600764.SH), Cssc Offshore & Marine Engineering (600685.SH), and Asian Star Anchor Chain (601890.SH), with a focus on Guangdong Songfa Ceramics (603268.SH).
Risk Warning
Shipbuilding demand did not meet expectations; raw material prices are rising; third-party data has not been comprehensively accounted for.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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