他在X上发帖表示，由于市场流动性下降，比特币牛市失去动力，预计未来6到12个月内价格将持续下跌或横盘整理。① The price of Bitcoin has dropped from an all-time high of 109,000 USD to around 83,000 USD, with industry executives claiming that a bear market has begun; ② Several Analysts in the crypto industry warn that the continued weakness in the USA stock market may exacerbate the bearish pressure in the Cryptos market; ③ The price of Bitcoin generally plummets by 77% to 86% after a shift from bull to bear, with some Analysts predicting that this round of adjustments will reach a low of around 40,000 USD.
According to the Financial Association, on March 19 (edited by Ma Lan), after the inauguration of USA President Trump, Cryptos experienced an epic bull run, however, this trend has paused in recent weeks. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ The price has dropped from its historic high of $109,000 to around $83,000 currently.
Recently, some industry insiders are worried that the Bitcoin bull market has reversed. Ki Young Ju, the founder of crypto research firm CryptoQuant, is one of the executives in the crypto industry holding a bearish view.
He posted on X that due to a decline in market liquidity, Bitcoin's bull market is losing momentum, and prices are expected to continue to fall or consolidate sideways over the next 6 to 12 months.
He pointed out that there is no new capital inflow on-chain, Blackrock's Bitcoin spot ETF has seen Outflow for three consecutive weeks, and even though trading volume is huge, there has been almost no movement in Bitcoin's price recently. Without new liquidity to offset large sell-offs, this will be a clear Put signal.
CryptoQuant also pointed out in its latest report that Bitcoin may return to the $63,000 mark, with key Indicators indicating that Bitcoin's current trend aligns with a deeper adjustment or the beginning of a bear market.
Has the bear market arrived?
Recently, several analysts in the crypto industry have warned that under economic uncertainty and heightened Global tensions, the persistent weakness in the USA stock market may exacerbate the Put pressure on the crypto market.
Famous crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen also claims that the historical correlation between Bitcoin and the Fed's policy indicates that the token may re-enact the downward trend of 2019. In 2019, the Fed continuously implemented Algo tightening, which is very similar to the current cycle's direction.
He added that the Atlanta Fed recently published a negative forecast for the USA's first-quarter GDP. When this expectation is combined with concerns about inflation and tariffs, it is not difficult to see that the bullish momentum of Bitcoin has completely vanished.
CryptoQuant Analysts set the bullish Resistance for Bitcoin between $75,000 and $78,000. Polymarket bettors believe that the probability of Bitcoin's price being between $81,000 and $87,000 by the end of this week is 51%, while the probability of reaching $75,000 by the end of the month is 31%.
Others analyze that historically, Bitcoin bull markets usually last between 742 to 1,065 days, roughly 2 to 3 years. In contrast, bear markets last between 364 to 413 days, about a year. Due to Bitcoin's rapidly growing Market Cap, each cycle's bull market is weaker than the previous one.
Moreover, Bitcoin's price generally plunges by 77% to 86% after transitioning from bull to bear. Given this recurring trend, some believe that the end point of this round of Bitcoin adjustment will be around $40,000.
Editor/Rocky
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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