Source: Wall Street Journal.

The phone call between the presidents of the USA and Russia lasted 90 minutes, reaching a partial ceasefire agreement, but a full ceasefire is still distant. Putin supports 'not striking energy targets within 30 days', and the USA side stated it would immediately initiate comprehensive ceasefire negotiations, partially easing the earlier tensions caused by instability in the Middle East, leading to a drop in oil prices.

The German parliament has broken through the traditional debt ceiling, passing a historic financial plan that unlocks higher defense spending and initiates a €500 billion Infrastructure Fund. ZEW data shows that fiscal stimulus has boosted economic confidence beyond expectations. Analysts predict that Germany's defense spending will increase GDP by 0.2%-0.3% annually over the next five years, and infrastructure investment will further raise demand by 0.2%-0.3%. Defense stocks rose, German bond yields increased, Thyssenkrupp gained 12.66%, and Rheinmetall rose 5.67%.

Reports indicate that Trump’s team is exploring a simplified reciprocal tariff plan. Additionally, due to better-than-expected US housing indicators and industrial production data, along with import and export prices surpassing forecasts, the Atlanta Fed revised its Q1 GDP forecast for the USA from -2.1% to -1.8%. However, a series of positive factors, combined with NVIDIA's failure to boost US stocks at the GTC 2025 event, led to another wave of selling in the US stock market, further widening the gap with other markets, with the valuation of the seven giants reverting to levels at the launch of ChatGPT.

Concerns over geopolitical issues and Trump’s trade war escalated, leading to a softening of the US stock market, with all three major indices turning negative for the year. Tesla fell 6.6% intraday due to intensified competition, Meta completely gave back its gains from the beginning of the year and turned negative, and NVIDIA dropped 3.35% on the first day of the GTC 2025 event.

The three major indexes in the USA experienced widespread declines.

• The S&P 500 Index closed down 1.06%. The Dow closed down 0.62%. The Nasdaq closed down 1.71%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 1.66%.

• The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, fell by 1.66%.

• The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index declined by 0.88%. The Fear Index VIX rose by 5.80%, closing at 21.70.

US industry ETFs generally declined.

• The Global Aviation Industry ETF dropped by 1.81%, the Internet Stock Index ETF fell by 1.79%, the Consumer Discretionary ETF declined by 1.78%, the Penghua Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF decreased by 1.55%, while the Energy Sector ETF rose by 0.2%.

On the investment research strategy front.

• A Bank of America Securities survey in March shows that global fund managers' expectations for the Chinese economy continue to improve, with a net proportion of respondents expecting continued improvement in China's economy reaching 28%, rising for the second consecutive month. At the same time, the net proportion of respondents bullish on the US economy fell to -71%, the lowest since May 2023.

• In terms of hot trades, the percentage of respondents 'bullish on Chinese technology stocks' increased from 4% last month to 9%, matching the heat of 'bullish on Cryptos', second only to 'bullish on the seven giants of American technology stocks' (40%) and 'bullish on European stocks' (23%). This survey was conducted from March 7 to 13, with a total of 171 fund managers participating, managing total assets of 426 billion dollars.

The "Technology Seven Sisters" generally fell:

• The Magnificent 7 Index fell by 2.11%, while the "losers from Trump's tariffs" index dropped by 1.31%.

• BYD has launched an electric vehicle that charges as quickly as refueling a gasoline vehicle and has had its target price lowered by RBC, while Tesla declined by 5.34%.

• Meta fell by 3.73%, NVIDIA dropped by 3.35%, Google A fell by 2.2%, Amazon dropped by 1.47%, Microsoft declined by 1.33%, and Apple fell by 0.61%.

• Google will acquire the cybersecurity company Wiz for $32 billion in an all-cash transaction.

Chip stocks faced a general decline.

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed down by 1.61%. The NVIDIA two-times leverage ETF fell by 6.63%.

• Intel rose by 0.9%, Broadcom fell by 3%, and Wolfspeed dropped by 9.32%.

AI concept stocks generally declined.

• BigBear.a dropped 14.9%, Super Micro Computer fell 9.63%, Applovin decreased by 9.13%, and Palantir fell by 3.96%.

China Concept Stocks declined overall with more falling than rising.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.18%. The FTSE A50 Index futures closed down 0.10% at 13636.000 points.

• Among ETFs, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 1.20%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 0.96%, and the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) closed down 0.36%.

• Among popular China Concept Stocks, Xiaomi Group ADR rose 3.9% to set a new closing historical high. Last year's net income increased by 41.3% year-on-year to reach a record high, with a gross margin of 20.4% in Q4 for its automotive business, aiming for a delivery target of 0.35 million units this year.

• Xpeng Motors fell 7.82%, with Q4 revenue growing by 23.4% year-on-year and gross margin significantly increasing to 14.4%, accelerating its AI strategy deployment.

• NIO rose 3.18%, and Contemporary Amperex Technology is advancing a strategic investment of not more than 2.5 billion yuan in NIO Energy.

• Tencent Music rose 15.54%, with revenue of 7.46 billion yuan in the fourth quarter last year, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year.

• Fangdd Network fell by 9.57%, while Tiger Brokers rose by 21.58%.

Other key stocks include.

• Novo-Nordisk A/S rose by 1.04% and, after being suspended from membership for two years for violating the UK's pharmaceutical industry code of conduct, is once again a member of the UK pharmaceutical industry association.

• NVIDIA announced a joint development of autonomous vehicles with General Motors, while MobilEye fell by 3.48%.

Germany's historic debt reform plan has been approved, deepening the upward momentum in the European market, with European stocks broadly in the green:

European stocks:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed up by 0.61%. The Eurozone STXX 50 Index closed up by 0.72%.

• The German stock index closed up by 0.98%. The French stock index closed up by 0.50%. The Italian stock index closed up by 1.31%. The UK stock index closed up by 0.29%. The Spanish stock index rose by 1.58%.

Stocks:

• Siemens rose by 1.15%, as it plans to lay off 6,000 employees globally, affecting its automation and electric vehicle charging businesses.

The strong performance of the 20-year Treasury auction and the risk-averse bids driven by the decline in US stocks have pushed Treasury yields lower. The bullish effect of the approved German defense spending plans was short-lived, as the sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain in the eurozone rose by less than 1 basis point:

US Treasury:

• The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury notes fell by 1.74 basis points to 4.2812%.

• The yield on the 2-year US Treasury notes decreased by 0.65 basis points to 4.0377%.

European bonds:

• At the end of the European market, the yield on the German 10-year Treasury notes dropped by 0.8 basis points, while the yield on the 2-year German notes fell by 1.7 basis points.

• The UK 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield rose by 0.7 basis points. The 2-Year UK bond yield increased by 1.0 basis points.

• The France 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield rose by 0.6 basis points. The Italy 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield increased by 0.8 basis points.

The USD weakened, while the yen experienced a V-shaped reversal, briefly recovering the 149 mark. Investors are focused on Germany's fiscal spending plans, with the euro rising by 0.2%. Despite Canadian CPI data coming in above expectations, market attention remains on Trump's tariff policy, causing the Canadian Dollar to fall by 0.1%.

USD:

• At the end of trading in New York, the ICE USD Index fell by 0.13%, closing at 103.233 points.

• The Bloomberg USD Index decreased by 0.04%, closing at 1261.93 points.

Non-USD currencies:

• The euro rose by 0.20% against the USD, trading at 1.0945. The British Pound fell by 0.12% against the euro. The USD fell by 0.42% against the Swiss Franc.

• The Australian Dollar fell 0.35% against the US Dollar, the New Zealand Dollar remained roughly flat against the US Dollar, and the US Dollar rose 0.10% against the Canadian Dollar.

Yen:

• In late trading in New York, the US Dollar rose 0.07% against the Japanese Yen, closing at 149.31 yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

• The offshore Renminbi (CNH) fell 6 points against the US Dollar compared to Tuesday's New York close, reporting 7.2277 yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day of gains, with intraday trading overall in the range of 7.2215 - 7.23783 yuan.

Cryptos:

• In late trading in New York, Bitcoin, the largest market cap leader, fell 3.08%, closing at 82,000.00 dollars.

• Ethereum, the second largest, fell 2.11%, closing at 1,901.00 dollars.

Earlier, oil prices rose to a two-week high due to concerns that instability in the Middle East might reduce oil supply, and hopes that Germany's economic stimulus plan could boost demand. However, a temporary ceasefire in energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine may offset concerns about instability in the Middle East, causing oil prices to pull back:

US Oil: WTI April crude oil futures closed down $0.68, a decline of over 1.00%, at $66.90 per barrel.

Brent Oil: Brent May crude oil futures closed down $0.51, a decline of 0.71%, at $70.56 per barrel.

Natural Gas:

• US April natural gas futures closed up more than 0.84%, at $4.0520 per million British thermal units.

• TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures fell 1.39%, at €40.725 per megawatt-hour.

• ICE UK natural gas futures fell 0.96%, at 99.970 pence per kilocalorie.

Concerns about a US recession combined with instability in the Middle East have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like Gold, pushing gold prices up over 1.1% to a new historical high. Spot gold is approaching $3040, futures gold has reached $3047, and New York copper has risen back above the $5 mark:

Gold:

• COMEX Gold Futures rose by 1.15%, reported at $3,040.70 per ounce, climbing to $3,047.50 at 21:30, a new intraday historical high.

• Spot Gold closed up 1.13%, reported at $3,034.42 per ounce, hitting a new historical high of $3,038.33 intraday.

Silver:

• COMEX Silver Futures increased by 0.97%, reported at $34.640 per ounce.

• Spot Silver closed up 0.47%, reported at $34.0208 per ounce.

London Industrial Metals experienced mixed trading:

• LME Copper closed up $43. COMEX Copper Futures rose by 0.87%, reported at $5.0020 per pound, breaking through the psychological barrier of $5 for the first time since May 21, 2024.

• LME Aluminum Futures fell by 32 dollars. LME Zinc Futures rose by 5 dollars. LME Lead Futures rose by 12 dollars. LME Nickel Futures fell by 181 dollars. LME Tin Futures rose by 53 dollars. LME Cobalt Futures remained flat.

Editor/jayden