德意志银行首席策略师Bankhim Chadha认为，Deutsche Bank believes that the sell-off in the USA stock market is not over yet. Morgan Stanley also stated that the market may experience a 'tradeable rebound', but unless 'numerous growth headwinds (Trump's tariff policy) are reversed' or the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, a sustainable rebound to new historical highs is unlikely.
After experiencing a decline of over 10% in less than a month, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ it has risen for two consecutive Trading days.
Investors are concerned whether this market rebound is just a "flash in the pan". Although some Stocks are "cheaper" than a month ago, investors do not see enough compelling reasons to prompt them to enter the market now. A large amount of survey data indicates that there are concerns about how tariffs might impact Consumer and business spending.
Deutsche Bank's chief strategist Bankhim Chadha believes that the sell-off in the USA stock market has not ended.
Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer Mike Wilson also stated that the market might see a "tradeable rebound", but unless "numerous growth headwinds (Trump’s tariff policy) are reversed" or the Federal Reserve resumes cutting interest rates, he thinks a sustainable rebound to new all-time highs is impossible.
The rebound still requires a "catalyst", and tariff policy is key.
Currently, Trump's Trade policy and the resulting concerns about economic growth slowing down have become the main reasons for the market sell-off. Although there is no clear data indicating that the impact has manifested yet, the market's uncertainty about the future is increasing.
Lori Calvasina, head of the USA Stocks strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated that despite the concerning market atmosphere, there are no clear signals indicating whether there are opportunities for reverse arbitrage.
From a corporate perspective, Walmart and Other companies' earnings forecasts suggest that trade tariffs may have a substantial impact on corporate profits. Delta Air Lines has warned that its earnings will be below expectations due to a decline in domestic demand caused by "macroeconomic uncertainty."
However, to fully understand how companies are responding in the current environment, the market will need to wait for the first quarter Earnings Reports starting on April 11.
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could become a key catalyst for the market. Investors are eagerly seeking more clues about whether the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year. If the Federal Reserve takes a dovish stance, the market may experience a short-term rebound. However, if the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a tight monetary policy, the market may face greater pressure.
From a technical perspective, many strategists point out that the S&P 500's rebound has returned to normal levels, without reaching a signal for a Buy opportunity. Deutsche Bank's Chadha mentioned that investor allocation to stocks has significantly decreased over the past month and has not yet touched the bottom levels during the Trump Trade War. He expects that if investors continue to withdraw, the S&P 500 may drop to 5250 points in the future.
In the face of the new round of tariffs that Trump will introduce on April 2, Chadha hopes to see concrete plans that can eliminate market uncertainty:
"If policies can be effectively resolved, the S&P 500 is expected to soar to 7000 points this year. Conversely, if tariff policies fail to adjust, rising concerns about economic slowdown will pose further challenges for the market."
Editor/rice
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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