Moody's stated that the tariffs planned by the Trump administration pose "varying degrees of risk" to companies in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with firms in the Autos, Steel, Chemicals, and Business Services Industries being the most susceptible to decreased demand and rising costs.
Moody's report released on Monday indicated that although the exports of Autos to the USA are limited, accounting for about 3% of India's total exports and 1% of Southeast Asia, the suppliers of Auto Parts and luxury car manufacturers selling directly or indirectly to the USA will be affected by tariffs. The report emphasizes that the Steel and Chemicals Industries are vulnerable to indirect impacts from disruptions in trade flows and the potential surge in regional supply, although the direct effects on the companies tracked by the institution are minimal.
Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are likely to redirect the surplus Steel and petrochemical products that were originally destined for the USA to other markets, including Asia, exacerbating the already high supply levels in the region, thus weakening prices and reducing profitability.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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