美国最新公布的零售销售数据令人失望。周一（3月17日），美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国2月零售销售环比0.2%，远不及预期的0.6%，前值由-0.9%下修至-1.2%，引发了人们对消费者支出放缓的担忧。On Tuesday in the Asian market, spot Gold climbed above 3000 dollars per ounce, reporting at 3007.06 dollars per ounce at the time of writing. The USA retail sales fell short of expectations, casting a shadow over the economic outlook, coupled with renewed conflict in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven Gold. So far this year, Gold prices have risen by more than 14%.
On Tuesday, March 18, during the Asian market, the price of Gold rose again, reaching a new record high. This was due to increasing investor concerns over the slowdown of the USA economy and the escalating tensions in the Middle East, which further highlighted the safe-haven appeal of Gold.
As of the time of writing, spot Gold is reported at $3012.67 per ounce. COMEX futures reached a high of $3017.8 per ounce, also setting a new record high.
Weak economic data, sounding the alarm for recession.
The latest retail sales data released by the USA was disappointing. On Monday (March 17), data from the USA Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in February increased by 0.2% month-on-month, far below the expected 0.6%. The previous value was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%, raising concerns over the slowdown in Consumer spending.
Following the data release, the yield on 10-year USA Treasury bonds dropped accordingly, boosting Gold prices. Due to recent economic data showing a decline in Consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations, coupled with the unpredictable tariff policies of USA President Trump, concerns over a recession in the USA are increasing.
The flames of war in the Middle East have reignited, leading to an increase in safe-haven sentiment.
In addition to unsettling economic data, geopolitical risks are also fueling the trend of Gold. Israel announced on Tuesday that it has launched military strikes against Hamas targets in Gaza, which could undermine the fragile ceasefire agreement. Palestinian residents reported multiple Israeli airstrikes in several areas of the Gaza Strip. The escalating geopolitical tensions undoubtedly increase the appeal of Gold assafe-haven assetan investment.
So far this year, Gold prices have risen more than 14%, continuing the strong upward momentum of 2024. In recent weeks, several investment banks on Wall Street have raised their forecasts for Gold prices this year.
UBS Group believes that Gold prices will reach $3,200 per ounce over the next four quarters. Analysts Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo at UBS Group pointed out in their Research Reports that the extensive reciprocal tariffs and additional industry-specific tariffs planned by Trump to be implemented on April 2 will become risk events that stimulate the market's continued search for safe havens.
According to previous reports from Wall Street Insight, a few weeks ago, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price expectations for the end of 2025, forecasting that gold price will reach $3,100 per ounce by the end of 2025, up from the previous prediction of $2,890 per ounce. At the same time, Goldman Sachs' Precious Metals research team reiterated the investment recommendation to 'go long on Gold,' noting that the long-term Bid demand from central banks is a key factor driving the continuous rise in Gold prices.
Editor/jayden
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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