During the European trading session, US bonds began to strengthen, but then showed two-way fluctuations after the Fed's economic data, with short-term bonds under pressure and long-term bonds strengthening. Multiple data points weakened market confidence in the US economy, with February retail sales only increasing by 0.2% month-on-month, far below the expected 0.6%, and the previous value was significantly revised down. Despite better-than-expected data excluding autos and RBOB Gasoline, the market remains concerned about slowing consumer spending.

The New York Fed's manufacturing PMI was significantly below expectations, new orders declined, and payment prices rose, indicating pressure on the manufacturing sector and persistent inflationary pressures. At the same time, US homebuilder confidence fell to a seven-month low. The job-hopping rate in the USA is close to a four-year low, signaling a slowdown in the labor market. Additionally, a New York Fed survey indicated an increased risk of consumer loan rejections. The US Treasury Secretary warned last Sunday that avoiding a recession cannot be guaranteed. The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next.

In terms of trade, the White House reiterated that the tariff plan will take effect on April 2, but the US Trade Representative seeks to implement it 'orderly' to reduce uncertainty. The Trump administration may change its recent chaotic approach of announcing the intention to implement tariffs and then repeatedly postponing or escalating actions, consulting with the US industry before announcing further actions, which has helped to widen the gains in US stocks.

Trump's tariff comments have temporarily subsided, and the market is closely watching global central bank meetings. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Powell's speech is crucial, as he has emphasized multiple times this year that there is no hurry to cut interest rates. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates at 0.50%; if hints of a rate hike are made, it could push up the yen. The market is attentive to the results of the German Bundestag's vote on the German reform proposals on Tuesday, with a 58% probability of the European Central Bank cutting rates by 25 basis points next month.

Geopolitical tensions are escalating. The market is focusing on Trump's call with Putin on Tuesday. Oil prices rose after US forces attacked Houthi militants in Yemen over the weekend. Trump warned Iran that if the Houthis strike again, the US will respond strongly and blame Iran. Risk aversion has increased, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets.

At the start of US trading, investors are attempting to recover from last month's significant sell-off by purchasing undervalued tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 and semiconductor stocks mostly rising at the beginning. However, during the session, tech stocks briefly soared before retreating, but the improvement in risk sentiment ultimately drove a rebound in US stocks, with the Real Estate and Energy sectors leading the way. The China Concept Index rose over 4% to create a new closing high in over three years.

The three major US stock indices saw an overall increase.

• The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.65%. The Dow rose 0.85%. The Nasdaq increased by 0.31%. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.55%.

• The Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the Nasdaq 100 technology components, closed up 0.25%.

• The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index rose by 1.19%. The Fear Index VIX fell by 5.83%, reporting at 20.50.

The industry ETFs in the US stock market all rose.

• The Global Aviation Industry ETF increased by 1.85%, the Energy Sector ETF rose by 1.59%, while the GF CSI All-Share Index Consumer Discretionary ETF was the worst performer, gaining just over 0.1%.

Most of the Magnificent 7 stocks declined:

• The Magnificent 7 Index decreased by about 0.8%, while the 'Trump Tariff Losers' Index rose by approximately 1.8%.

• Tesla fell by 4.83%, NVIDIA dropped by 1.76%, Amazon declined by 1.12%, Alphabet A fell by 0.73%, Meta Platforms decreased by 0.44%, while Microsoft increased by 0.04%, and Apple rose by 0.24%.

• Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the B300 release is a key focus of NVIDIA at GTC 2025, with mass production expected in the third quarter.

Chip stocks saw more gains than losses.

• The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed up 1.42%. NVIDIA's two-times leveraged ETF fell 3.34%. Nano Microelectronics rose 6%.

• Intel rose 6.82%, with reports indicating that the new CEO plans a comprehensive reform of the chip business and AI strategy.

• After reports suggested that Google may collaborate with MediaTek to develop AI chips, Broadcom fell over 3.9% before closing down 0.53%.

Most AI concept stocks rose.

• BullFrog AI rose 9.88%, Jet.AI rose 9.53%, Palantir rose 1.29%, and Applovin rose 4.77%.

China concept stocks generally rose.

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.03%, rebounding 6.61% over the last three trading days. The FTSE A50 futures closed up 0.77% at 13,767.000 points.

• Among the ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) rose by 7.21%, the China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 4.11%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 1.73%.

• Among the popular China Concept Stocks, Baidu rose over 9%, Alibaba rose by 4.6%, Yuyuan Sunshine rose by 97.98%, and X3 Holdings rose by 47.91%.

• Regencell Bioscience rose by 46.59%, Renergen rose by 32.77%, Leju Holdings rose by 25%. Niu Technologies rose by 29.04%, and Yatsen rose over 12%.

Quantum Computing Concept stocks had more gains than losses.

• ARQQ rose by 56.93%, QMCO rose by 40.09%, QBTS rose by 10.15%, and QUBT rose by 13.12%.

Aviation stocks rose broadly.

• Embraer ADR rose by 4.38%, American Airlines AAL rose by 4.14%, Alaska Air rose by 2.24%, and Southwest Airlines rose by 1.26%.

Other key stocks include.

• Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares rose 1.63%, marking the second consecutive day of closing at a new high. Berkshire 'promised' to increase its holdings in the five major Japanese trading companies, with an average shareholding ratio close to 10%.

• United States Steel rose 2.85%, as the U.S. Department of Justice plans to extend the deadline for the lawsuit against United States Steel and Nippon Steel with the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment.

• Bakkt fell 52% in Post-Market Trading, as the company applied to delay the release of its 10-K annual report. Bank of America and Webull will not renew/extend their business agreement, with Bank of America accounting for 16% of the company's certified service revenue.

News from the Eurozone is relatively calm, and European stocks rose ahead of the vote on Germany's debt reform. All sectors rose except for the chemical sector:

European stocks:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.78%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.77%.

• The German stock index closed up 0.62%. The French stock index closed up 0.58%. The Italian stock index closed up 0.96%. The UK stock index closed up 0.56%. The Spanish stock index rose 1.09%.

• The reform of the "debt brake rules", a proposal involving amendments to the German constitution, requires the support of two-thirds of the members of the German federal parliament. The German federal parliament is expected to vote on the debt reform on Tuesday.

Industry Sectors:

• European chip concept stocks rose broadly, with German Infineon rising 3.94%.

• UK defense company QinetiQ's stock plummeted nearly 21% after it downgraded its full-year revenue outlook.

• Defense stocks RENK rose 9.83%, and ThyssenKrupp rose 5.85%. Reports indicate that Germany's next round of defense spending tends to favor European companies, with ThyssenKrupp's ships included in Germany's "wish list" for weapons.

• The USA's tariff policy indirectly caused other countries to shift cheap aluminum products to the EU market, and the EU is concerned that this "trade diversion" will impact local industries. Reports indicate that the EU plans to investigate the aluminum market to address this risk.

On the eve of the Federal Reserve's decision, the US bond market shows polarization, with short-term bonds under pressure and long-term bonds strengthening, further inverting the US Treasury yield curve.

US Treasury:

• The yield on the benchmark 10-Year Treasury Notes in the USA fell by 0.78 basis points, reporting at 4.3043%.

• The yield on the 2-Year Treasury Notes in the USA rose by 3.76 basis points, reporting at 4.0546%.

European bonds:

• In the European market's close, the yield on the German 10-Year Treasury Notes fell by 5.7 basis points. The yield on the 2-Year German Treasury Notes rose by 0.4 basis points.

• The yield on the UK 10-Year Treasury Notes fell by 3.7 basis points. The yield on the 2-Year British Treasury Notes rose by 0.2 basis points.

• The yield on the France 10-Year Treasury Notes fell by 8.7 basis points. The yield on the Italy 10-Year Treasury Notes fell by 9.0 basis points.

The shadow of Trump's trade protectionism continues, leading the USD to fall to a five-month low, with most G10 currencies strengthening, particularly the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Due to improved risk sentiment, the Yen is the only currency in the G10 that weakened against the USD. Before the vote on German debt reform, the Euro strengthened close to a five-month high. The offshore Chinese Yuan approached a four-month high.

USD:

• In New York's late trading, the ICE USD fell by 0.33%, reported at 103.374 points.

• The Bloomberg USD Index dropped by 0.29%, reported at 1262.06 points.

Non-USD currencies:

• The Euro rose by 0.40% against the USD, reported at 1.0923. The British Pound increased by 0.44%. The USD fell by 0.49% against the Swiss Franc.

• The Australian Dollar rose by 0.96% against the USD, and the New Zealand Dollar increased by 1.29%, while the USD fell by 0.53% against the Canadian Dollar.

Yen:

• In New York's late trading, the USD rose by 0.36% against the Japanese Yen, reported at 149.18 Yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

• The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the US Dollar rose by 108 points compared to Tuesday's New York close, trading at 7.2271 yuan, marking the second consecutive day of gains, with the day's overall trading range between 7.2447 and 7.2251 yuan.

Cryptos:

• At the New York close, the largest market cap leader Bitcoin fell 0.62% compared to last Friday's close, quoted at 84,310.00 dollars.

• The second-largest Ethereum rose 0.21% at the close, quoted at 1,943.00 dollars.

Trump stated that every shot fired by the Houthi forces would be counted against Iran, causing an increase in Crude Oil Product prices. Brent crude closed up about 0.7%:

WTI April Crude Oil Futures closed up 0.40 dollars, an increase of over 0.59%, quoted at 67.58 dollars per barrel.

Brent May Crude Oil Futures closed up 0.49 dollars, an increase of 0.69%, quoted at 71.07 dollars per barrel.

Trump stated that from now on, every gunshot fired by the Houthi forces will be counted as Iran's Weapons and leadership, and Iran will be held accountable and face 'terrible' consequences.

Last Saturday, the U.S. military launched a large-scale attack against the Houthi forces, with Trump warning Iran to immediately stop supporting the Houthis. U.S. officials stated that this is the most significant military action since the beginning of Trump's second term and is intended to send a warning signal to Iran.

Natural Gas:

• April natural gas futures in the U.S. fell over 2.09%, settling at $4.0180 per million British thermal units.

• TTF benchmark Dutch gas futures dropped 2.01%, closing at €41.375 per megawatt hour.

• ICE UK gas futures fell 2.53%, reported at 101.260 pence per kilocalorie.

Trump has ignited trade concerns, causing spot gold to rise approximately 0.6%, approaching historical highs:

Gold:

• COMEX gold futures increased by 0.30%, reaching $3010.00 per ounce.

• Spot Gold rose 0.57% in the final trading session, closing at $3001.16 per ounce.

• UBS Group raised the Target Price for Gold to $3200 per ounce.

Silver:

• COMEX Silver Futures fell 0.02%, closing at $34.425 per ounce.

• Spot Silver rose 0.23% in the final trading session, closing at $33.8782 per ounce.

London Industrial Metals experienced mixed trading:

• LME Copper Futures rose by $81. COMEX Copper Futures increased by 1.69%, closing at $4.9785 per pound.

• LME Aluminum Futures rose by $6. LME Zinc Futures fell by $14. LME Lead Futures rose by $14. LME Nickel Futures fell by $40. LME Tin Futures fell by $95. LME Cobalt Futures remained flat.

Editor/jayden