瑞银表示，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划在4月2日征收广泛的对等关税和额外的特定行业关税，这是一个迫在眉睫的风险事件，可能刺激整个市场持续的避险需求。上周五，金价有史以来首次突破了每盎司3000美元的关键心理关口。金价也将受益于美国经济前景的恶化，交易员们目前预计，随着对经济衰退的担忧加剧，美联储将进一步降息。UBS Group has become the latest bank to raise its Gold price forecast, due to the increasing likelihood of a prolonged Global trade war.
According to Zhito Finance APP, UBS Group has become the latest bank to raise its Gold price forecast, due to the increasing likelihood of a prolonged Global trade war. UBS Analysts expect this situation will continue to drive investors to Buy more Gold, the ultimate safe haven.safe-haven assetUBS has raised its Gold price forecast for the next four quarters to $3,200 per ounce.
UBS Analysts, including Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo, stated on Monday that as the escalating trade conflict highlights Gold's role as a store of value during uncertain times, the trading price of Gold for the next four quarters will reach $3,200 per ounce, an increase from the bank's previous long-term forecast of $3,000.
UBS stated that the imminent risk event of President Donald Trump planning to impose extensive reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on specific Industries starting April 2 could stimulate persistent safe-haven demand across the market. Last Friday, Gold prices broke through the key psychological barrier of $3,000 per ounce for the first time in history. Gold prices are also expected to benefit from the worsening outlook of the USA economy, as traders currently anticipate that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates amid growing concerns about an economic recession.
UBS Analysts stated: "In other words, we are witnessing a shift from 'Trump Put Options' to 'Federal Reserve Put Options.' We still believe that from a long-term diversification perspective, allocating about 5% of a balanced portfolio to Gold is the best choice."
Several Other banks have also recently raised their gold price expectations. Last week, Macquarie predicted that Gold prices would soar to $3,500 per ounce in the second quarter, while BNP Paribas expects average Gold prices to be well above $3,000.
UBS Analysts noted that more funds are beginning to flow into Gold Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs), with ongoing demand for these investment tools being a key condition for further increases in Gold prices. Analysts also mentioned that strong demand from major Banks will continue to play a "critical" structural support role and pointed out that there are signs indicating that Gold purchases "may again approach recent levels—about 1,000 tons per year."
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(1)
Reason For Report