此外，国家统计局3月17日发布数据显示，2025年2月份，从环比看，受春节销售淡季等因素影响，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格总体稳中略降，其中一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格上涨。从同比看，各线城市商品住宅销售价格降幅均继续收窄。交银国际认为，行业止跌回稳目标明确，低基数下关注后续“小阳春”楼市表现。Mainland Real Estate stocks rose across the board. As of the time of writing, COUNTRY GARDEN (02007) increased by 5.77%, trading at 0.55 HKD; CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) increased by 3.96%, trading at 2.1 HKD; CIFI HOLD GP (00884) increased by 3.7%, trading at 0.28 HKD.
According to Zhito Finance APP, Mainland Real Estate stocks rose across the board. As of the time of writing, COUNTRY GARDEN (02007) increased by 5.77%, trading at 0.55 HKD; CH OVS G OCEANS (00081) increased by 3.96%, trading at 2.1 HKD; CIFI HOLD GP (00884) increased by 3.7%, trading at 0.28 HKD; AGILE GROUP (03383) increased by 3.23%, trading at 0.64 HKD.
On the news front, on March 16, Shenzhen introduced new provident fund policies, increasing loan limits, lowering down payment ratios, strengthening support for families with multiple children, and increasing interest subsidies to further optimize housing security. It is worth mentioning that the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," clearly stating to "promote the stabilization and recovery of the Real Estate market," and releasing signals to "lower housing provident fund loan interest rates in due course." Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that Shenzhen's new provident fund policy further releases signals for policy easing from the government. Coupled with preliminary stabilization in sales in the first two months before 2025, under more proactive fiscal policies and moderately relaxed monetary policies, stockpiling and urban village transformation work are expected to accelerate, improving the current housing supply-demand relationship and speeding up the process of stabilization.
In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on March 17, showing that in February 2025, on a month-on-month basis, affected by the sales off-season during the Spring Festival and other factors, the sales prices of Commodity Residences in 70 large and medium-sized cities overall remained stable but slightly declined, with first-tier cities experiencing an increase in new Commodity Residence sales prices. Year-on-year, the decline in sales prices of Commodity Residences in all city tiers continued to narrow. BOCOM INTL believes that the Industry's goal of stopping the decline and stabilizing is clear, and under the low base, attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of the housing market in the upcoming "minor spring."
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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