盘面上来看，上周五市场呈现出低位权重蓝筹搭台，题材股来唱戏的行情。其中大消费与非银金融是拉动指数的最大功臣。首先关注的消费方向，虽然传统消费在过去一两年的行情整体平淡，但以港股和A股新消费为标签的部分优质消费个股一直在演绎极度亮眼的行情。而呼和浩特的生育补贴成为导火线，市场沿着该逻辑，延伸至乳业、零售、辅助生殖、白酒等各个细分。Track the entire lifecycle of the main Sector.
Introduction: ① Last Friday, the market saw a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3,400 points, as low-weight blue chips set the stage for thematic stocks; ② In the consumer sector, the fertility subsidy in Hohhot sparked market extensions to the Dairy industry and other segments, with potential policy enhancements over the weekend possibly catalyzing further developments; ③ Last Friday, the non-bank financial sector was active, with frequent news of mergers and restructuring in the Brokerage Industry, but it is still viewed primarily as a tool for Index breakthroughs; ④ With short-term sentiment warming, attention should be paid to opportunities for recovery in Technology stocks such as Siasun Robot&Automation and AI.
Last Friday, the market saw a significant rebound in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing back above 3400 points. After experiencing violent fluctuations in the middle of last week, the market again showed signs of breaking upwards. Although this does not mean that a new round of index-driven market movements will immediately begin, it fundamentally alleviates the concerns over the previous breakdowns, and the subsequent view should still be focused on a structure of oscillation upwards.
Looking at the market, last Friday presented a scenario where low-weight blue chips set the stage while thematic stocks took the spotlight. The CSI Consumer 360 index and non-bank financial sectors were the biggest contributors to the Index. First, regarding the consumer sector, although traditional consumption has been overall flat in the past couple of years, some quality consumer stocks tagged with new consumption on the Hong Kong and A-share markets have consistently shown remarkable performances. The fertility subsidy in Hohhot acted as a trigger, leading the market logic to extend to the Dairy industry, retail, Assisted Reproduction, and Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) sectors.
Over the weekend, policies to boost consumption were further intensified, with the General Office and State Council issuing the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," which includes increasing support for fertility and childcare, studying the establishment of a childcare subsidy system; broadening channels for property income, implementing multiple measures to stabilize the stock market; promoting reasonable growth in wage income, and scientifically and reasonably raising the minimum wage standards; increasing support for the replacement of consumer goods, etc. This may further catalyze the consumer sector. However, it should be noted that the significant volume increase in Dairy stocks last Friday showed noticeable Algo traces; with short-term expectations relatively full, if today's positive news leads to a high opening, short-term divergence may intensify. Therefore, for Consumer stocks, greater emphasis should be placed on the trend opportunities of capacity symbols.
The non-bank financial sector was also active last Friday, with Xinda Securities hitting the daily limit, while Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network and East Money Information both surged significantly. Recently, there have been continuous discussions about mergers and restructuring in the Brokerage industry, including the merger of GTJA and HAITONG SEC to form Guotai Haitong. Xiangcai Securities announced over the weekend its plan to merge with Shanghai DZH Limited through a stock swap, with trading paused for no more than 10 trading days. However, it is necessary to note that after the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassed 3,400 points, financial stocks not only failed to strengthen further but also slightly retreated, indicating that if trading volume cannot continuously increase, great financial stocks might be viewed more as tools for Index breakthroughs, with the market remaining primarily in a state of oscillation and differentiation. However, certain stocks in CNI Xiangmi Lake Fintech Index may also show short-term elasticity combined with other themes.
As the Index strengthens, Technology stocks including Siasun Robot&Automation and AI have welcomed partial recovery. As the two main lines that funds had deeply engaged with earlier, although funds may be affected by diversion to consumption and finance, they are still expected to be repeatedly active with the warming of short-term sentiment, focusing on the sectors or stocks in Technology that start to strengthen first.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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