华尔街分析师认为，美联储主席鲍威尔本周在新闻发布会上的讲话至关重要，投资者希望从中寻找美联储后续降息的最新信号。
Source: Brokerage China
Author: Zhou Le
The Global market is about to welcome a significant moment.
This week, the global financial market will usher in the highly anticipated 'Super Central Bank Week,' where major central banks such as those in the USA, Japan, and the United Kingdom will successively hold monetary policy meetings. The market generally expects that in the context of the uncertainties brought by Trump's policies, 'caution' may become the common policy keyword for global central banks, and the Federal Reserve will most likely 'stand pat'.
Wall Street Analysts believe that the speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the press conference this week is crucial, and investors hope to find the latest signals about the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts from it.
In addition to 'Super Central Bank Week,' another highlight of the global market this week is,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$the GTC conference, which focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, graphics technology, and humanoid robots. JPMorgan expects that NVIDIA will launch the Blackwell Ultra chip (GB300) and may also reveal some details about the next-generation AI Chip platform 'Rubin'; humanoid robots and physical AI may also become highlights of the conference.
"Super Central Bank Week" is coming.
According to the schedule, at 2 AM on March 20 (Thursday) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the March interest rate decision and the latest interest rate dot plot. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the announcement.
The current market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates, while investors hope to find policy signals regarding the next rate cut in this meeting.
Against the backdrop of uncertainty brought by Trump's policies, Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% during the March policy meeting.
Morgan Stanley believes that in the current context of high policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve will not rush to act. The March meeting is likely to opt to remain steady, continuing to respond cautiously to the highly uncertain economic environment based on data. The future direction of monetary policy will depend on policy choices that have yet to be made and their cumulative effects.
"The U.S. stock market is trying to find any clues about when the Federal Reserve will be ready to implement the next rate cut," said Dominic Pappalardo, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at Morningstar Wealth. "I believe that the headlines from the White House and the impact of new policies will not stop anytime soon."
Wall Street analysts believe that Powell's speech at the press conference this week is crucial.
"In the past few weeks, market expectations for the Fed have been repriced," stated Walter Todd, Chief Investment Officer of Greenwood Capital. "If Powell strongly rebuts the market's expectations for rate cuts, it could adversely affect the market."
Morgan Stanley expects that during the press conference after the interest rate meeting, Powell will take a cautiously optimistic stance on economic growth and deflation, but will emphasize that the Federal Reserve will remain patient.
Morgan Stanley points out that the Federal Reserve under Powell tends to be "data-dependent" rather than "prediction-based policy actions," and will continue to focus on incoming data.
Morgan Stanley notes that recent economic data from the USA shows a slowdown in growth with signs of easing inflationary pressures. However, short-term data fluctuations are far from sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's policy direction; future data will be more crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy determination.
Morgan Stanley believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path will remain stable, expecting two rate cuts this year (reducing the rate to 3.9%), followed by another two cuts next year (down to 3.4%). Long-term rate expectations (long-run dot) will also remain unchanged.
In addition to the Federal Reserve, several central banks including Japan, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Sweden will also successively announce their interest rate decisions this week.
Analysts believe that in the face of multiple challenges for the global economy, particularly against the backdrop of uncertainties brought by "Trump's policies," "caution" and "wait-and-see" have undoubtedly become common policy "keywords" among global central banks.
A significant moment in the global technology circle.
In addition to "Super Central Bank Week," another major highlight in the global market this week is the NVIDIA GTC conference, which will last for a week (from March 17 to March 21) and will focus on cutting-edge fields such as AI, graphics technology, and humanoid robots.
As a benchmark conference in the Global AI computing power field, the NVIDIA GTC conference has always been a barometer for technological innovation.
According to the schedule, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a speech at 1 PM EDT on March 18 (1 AM Wednesday Beijing time) and will hold a Q&A session with financial analysts on March 19.
According to official disclosures, the conference will announce multiple technological innovations, including the next generation GB300 and B300 computing power cards, CPO Switch, and NVL288 cabinet solutions. Additionally, key technology upgrades such as energy management, liquid cooling, and high-density Hardware architecture will also become focal points.
During the recent Earnings Reports conference call, Huang Renxun confirmed that the upcoming Blackwell B300 series (codename Blackwell Ultra) is scheduled for release in the second half of 2025.
Another major concern for investors is NVIDIA's next generation GPU - Rubin, which is expected to be released in 2026. Huang Renxun has stated that Rubin will bring "huge, huge, tremendous performance leaps."
It has been disclosed that NVIDIA's next-generation AI Chip is named after the astronomer Vera Rubin who discovered dark matter, indicating its breakthroughs in handling complex computational tasks. Although specific technical details have not been released, combined with NVIDIA's continuous innovations in GPU architecture, this chip is expected to further optimize AI training and inference performance, solidifying its leading position in the computing power market.
JPMorgan expects that NVIDIA will launch the Blackwell Ultra chip (GB300) at the conference and may disclose some details of the Rubin platform. This conference will also focus on the comprehensive upgrade of AI Hardware, including higher performance GPUs, HBM memory, stronger thermal and power management, as well as the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology roadmap.
In addition, JPMorgan also expects that humanoid robots and physical AI will be highlights of the conference—this means that NVIDIA will continue to lead innovations in AI Hardware, and related industry chain companies are likely to benefit. However, investors also need to pay attention to the risks of a slowdown in AI spending in the Datacenter.
Tianfeng's Research Reports indicate that the NVIDIA GTC conference is about to take place. The breakthroughs in AI and graphical perception technologies to be showcased at this conference may suggest a larger-scale widespread application of robots in the future, likely driving major manufacturers to enter the humanoid robot industry.
JPMorgan believes that NVIDIA's CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology roadmap will be another highlight of this GTC conference.
CPO helps improve bandwidth, reduce latency, and lower power consumption, but currently, GPU-level CPO still has significant technological challenges, such as heat dissipation issues (the optical engine generates a lot of heat), reliability, and the risk of deformation of the packaging substrate.
JPMorgan expects that CPO will initially be applied to Switches, specifically the Quantum (InfiniBand) and Spectrum (Ethernet) series, as an optional solution for the Blackwell Ultra platform, with widespread application of CPO on the GPU side expected to be realized at the earliest in 2027 during the Rubin Ultra era.
Get a sneak peek at important financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Financial Calendar/Selected macro data., seizing investment opportunities!
Editor/Rocky
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(0)
Reason For Report