品牌升级与产品创新持续推进，关注淡季布局机会。主品牌方面，波司登持续创新升级羽绒服品类，并积极拓展单壳冲锋衣、羽绒服等产品，25 年春夏新品关注度较高、有望带动淡季销售。随着产品多元化和四季化布局持续推进、整体销售表现有望超预期。同时复盘公司历史股价及估值水平，3/4 月股价通常处于全年底部位置，当前市盈率也处于历史较低分位，布局机会值得关注。Actively explore and implement new quality productivity to promote high-quality enterprise development. Recently, Gao Dekang, founder of Bosideng, chairman of the board of directors and president, said in an exclusive interview with the Beijing News that deepening the main business and seeking innovation is the core competitiveness of private enterprises. Bosideng will continue to innovate and improve product quality, enrich product categories, strengthen fashion creativity, expand consumption scenarios, create an integrated ecosystem, and achieve differentiated competition and dislocated development. In terms of cultivating new quality productivity, Bosideng has been striving to deeply integrate next-generation digital technology with the traditional business model of down jackets, and has achieved full-link collaboration of consumer-centered digital “R&D, production, supply and marketing services”, so that the enterprise's operational efficiency, decision-making accuracy, collaborative efficiency, and talent efficiency have been greatly improved. Last year, the first product intelligently designed and implemented by AI, the Bosideng single-shell jacket, had a good response after being introduced to the market. Artificial intelligence technology has greatly improved design efficiency, and sample development time has been reduced from 100 days to 27 days.
Furthermore, Bosideng is concentrating on integrating the concept of sustainable development into the entire industry chain, leading the ESG rating.
Stable performance under high base and external disturbances, showing the company's operational resilience. According to statistics from the “2024 China Climate Bulletin”, the average national average temperature in 2024 was 10.9℃, 1.01℃ higher than year-round. The temperature was high in all four seasons, and the temperature fluctuated greatly in winter, affecting short-term sales of down jacket brands. Affected by high base and temperature disturbances, we expect FY2025 sales brand down jacket business to grow in high orders, OEM branding business will maintain double digit growth, and women's clothing business revenue may decline due to weak terminal demand.
Brand upgrading and product innovation continue to advance, focusing on off-season layout opportunities. In terms of main brands, Bosideng continues to innovate and upgrade the down jacket category, and is actively expanding products such as single-case jackets and down jackets. New products in the spring and summer of '25 received a high level of attention and are expected to drive off-season sales. As product diversification and seasonal layout continue to advance, overall sales performance is expected to exceed expectations. At the same time, the company's historical stock price and valuation level are reviewed. The March stock price is usually at the bottom of the year, and the current price-earnings ratio is also at a historically low level, so the layout opportunities are worth paying attention to.
Profit prediction and investment advice: Since the company's strategic transformation, the down jacket expert system has been consolidated in all aspects, and brand strength and product strength have continued to improve. While the overall consumer environment still faces many challenges and uncertainties, the company's performance in the first half of the 24/25 fiscal year exceeded expectations, demonstrating the company's development resilience. In the second half of the fiscal year, due to weather and consumption conditions, etc., revenue is expected to maintain 10% + steady growth, and gross margin is expected to increase slightly year-on-year (due to business restructuring). We slightly adjust our profit forecast. We expect net profit for FY2025/2026/2027 to 3.52/4.04/4.56 billion (previous value was 3.618/4.127/4.703 billion), respectively, up 14.5%/14.7%/12.9%, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current price is 12/11/10 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The macroeconomic downturn has led to a decline in terminal sales; growth of main brands falls short of expectations due to increased competition; progress in the expansion of new brand stores is lower than expected; dealers are less motivated to pick up goods than expected; public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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