医药零售业务稳健增长，中药材等营收增长有所承压。2024 年前三季度，公司医药零售业务收入60.13 亿元，同比增长2.54%，占总营收的89.28%。Operating income continues to grow, and operating profits are under pressure in the short term. Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.735 billion yuan, up 3.63% year on year; net profit to mother was 0.101 billion yuan, down 63.79% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.097 billion yuan, down 64.28% year on year. Among them, the third quarter of 2024 achieved operating income of 2.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and net profit to mother of 0.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 68.46%; the company issued an annual performance forecast for 24, and the company's net profit to mother is expected to drop 65.50%-68.78% in '24. We believe that the decline in the company's profit side in 24 was mainly due to factors such as increased market and industry competition, continued implementation of pharmaceutical reform policies, reduction in health insurance accounts, delays in the implementation of coordinated health insurance, and strong health insurance supervision.
Self-built+merger and acquisition of two-wheel drive, the scale of the store continues to expand. The company had a net increase of 385 stores in the first three quarters of 2024. The total number of stores reached 5501 at the end of the period, an increase of 7.53% over the number of stores at the beginning of the year, and an increase of 16.77% over the previous year.
Among them, 288 self-built stores, acquired 122 stores, and closed 25 stores due to development plans and business strategy adjustments. The total number of stores in the Yungui area is 2,939; the total number of stores in the Sichuan, Chongqing and Gui regions is 1,255; and the total number of stores in the Jiliao area is 976.
The pharmaceutical retail business is growing steadily, and revenue growth from Chinese herbal medicines etc. is under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's pharmaceutical retail business revenue was 6.013 billion yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year, accounting for 89.28% of total revenue.
Among them, Proprietary Chinese Medicine's revenue was 4.844 billion yuan, up 4.34% year on year, accounting for 76.79% of the pharmaceutical retail business. Revenue from Chinese herbal medicines, health foods, and medical devices decreased by 8.68%, 3.71%, and 8.83%, respectively.
Convenience retail revenue was 0.302 billion yuan, down 1.20% year on year.
The three cost controls are stable, and the operating capacity is constantly improving. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's expenses rate for the period was 33.62%, an increase of 3.71 pp over the previous year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 29.28% (+2.92pp), the management expense ratio was 2.79% (+0.70pp), and the financial expense ratio was 1.55% (+0.10pp). In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's consolidated gross margin was 36.19%, an increase of 0.31pp over the previous year. Among them, the gross margin of the pharmaceutical retail business was 34.91%, an increase of 0.38pp over the previous year. The gross margin of the convenience retail business was 16.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72pp. We believe that the increase in the company's overall gross margin is mainly due to the steady increase in sales revenue of proprietary Chinese and Western pharmaceuticals and the increase in sales of branded products.
Profit forecast: Jianzhijia continues to implement the “self-build+acquisition” two-wheel drive model, maintain a rapid and steady pace of expansion, and continue to advance the “based in Yunnan and deeply cultivate the southwest” strategy. We expect the company's net profit to be 0.14, 0.275, and 0.332 billion yuan in 2024-26, with growth rates of -66.2%, 96.2%, and 20.8% respectively. According to comparable company estimates, the company was given 14-17 times PE in 2025, with a reasonable value range of 24.50-29.75 yuan. The first coverage gave it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of tightening health insurance policies, the risk of store expansion falling short of expectations, and market competition increasing the risk.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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