Guidance (see "Disclaimer and Forward-Looking Statements" below)
For 2025, the Company's full year expectations are calculated based on anticipated net premiums earned of approximately $184 million, and are as follows:
| Guidance Metrics | 2025 - Current | 2025 - Previous | ||||
| Core Business2 direct premiums written growth | 15% to 25% | 15% to 25% | ||||
| Combined ratio | 81% to 85% | 82% to 86% | ||||
| Net income per share - basic | $1.90 to $2.30 | $1.60 to $2.00 | ||||
| Net income per share - diluted | $1.75 to $2.15 | $1.45 to $1.85 | ||||
| Return on equity | 27% to 35% | 24% to 32% |
The following reflects the impact of dilution to total shares outstanding for the year ended December 31, 2024 and full year 2025 guidance:
| Common Stock Metrics | Year Ended | 2025E | ||||||
| (shares in millions) | December 31, 2024 | |||||||
| Weighted average shares outstanding - basic | 11.5 | 13.3 | ||||||
| Weighted average shares outstanding - diluted | 12.4 | 14.2 | ||||||
| Total shares outstanding as of end of period - basic | 12.9 | 13.6 | ||||||
| Total shares outstanding as of end of period - diluted | 14.1 | 14.7 | ||||||
| All changes to total shares outstanding - basic and diluted assumed for 2025 are primarily from the vesting of restricted shares and stock issued under our "at the market" offering. | ||||||||
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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