市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，3月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.9%，创2022年以来的最高水平，预期4.3%，2月前值为4.3%。3月的5年通胀预期初值为3.9%，为三十多年来的最高水平，预期为3.4%，前值为3.5%。
In March, the preliminary value of the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index in the USA was 57.9, the lowest since November 2022. The preliminary value of the one-year inflation expectation in March was 4.9%, the highest level since 2022, compared to 4.3% in February; the five-year inflation expectation preliminary value was 3.9%, the highest level in over thirty years, compared to 3.5% previously. Consumers' expectations regarding their own financial situation have dropped to an all-time low.
The preliminary data released on Friday from the Michigan University for March indicates that due to tariffs, consumer confidence in the USA has reached a new low not seen in over two years, and long-term inflation expectations have seen the largest increase since 1993. Additionally, consumers' expectations regarding their own financial situation have fallen to an all-time low.
The preliminary value of the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index in the USA for March was 57.9, significantly below the expected 63, and lower than the expectations of all economists in the media survey, with a previous value of 64.7 in February. In terms of sub-indices, the current index preliminary value was 63.5, falling to a six-month low, with expectations at 64.4, and a previous value of 65.7 in February; the expectations index preliminary value was 54.2, the lowest since July 2022, against an expectation of 63, with a previous value of 64.
Regarding inflation expectations that the market is closely monitoring, the preliminary value of one-year inflation expectations from the Michigan University in March was 4.9%, the highest level since 2022, with an expectation of 4.3%, and a previous value of 4.3% in February. The preliminary value of five-year inflation expectations for March was 3.9%, the highest level in over thirty years, with an expectation of 3.4%, and a previous value of 3.5%.
Recent surveys indicate that inflation expectations among American consumers have broken through the range of fluctuations seen in recent years. For a considerable time, the Michigan five-year inflation expectations generally fluctuated in a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.1%. In June 2022, when US inflation was at this cycle's peak, this inflation expectation preliminary value once reached 3.3%, the highest since 2008. The latest long-term inflation expectations for February and March 2025 have exceeded levels from the two years prior to the pandemic.
Tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices may have significant implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they will not rush to further cut interest rates. The skyrocketing inflation expectations in the USA are indicative of a loosening of long-term inflation expectations; the Michigan inflation expectation data from June 2022 prompted aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and subsequently, inflation expectations fell, greatly alleviating concerns about potential loss of control.
In this Michigan survey, 48% of respondents mentioned concerns regarding tariffs, expressing worries over uncertainty pertaining to policy and economic factors.
Analysis indicates that as the Range of President Trump's tariff policies continues to expand, Consumers are increasingly concerned that additional tariffs will ultimately lead to higher costs. Although the CPI inflation in February has receded, if price pressures continue to rise, households may cut back on non-essential spending.
The survey also showed that Consumer expectations regarding their personal financial situation have dropped to a historic low.
Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey at the University of Michigan, stated:
Many Consumers mentioned the high uncertainty brought by policies and Other economic factors; the frequently changing economic policies make it difficult for Consumers to plan for the future, regardless of their policy preferences. In the survey, 48% of respondents spontaneously brought up tariff issues during the interview. The key point is that these Consumers generally expect tariffs to significantly exert upward pressure on inflation in the future.
The goal of the Trump administration is to correct trade imbalances, stimulate investment in the USA, and promote domestic production of key Commodities and materials. However, Consumers believe that there is a great deal of uncertainty in the economy, government policies, and financial markets.
The decline in Consumer confidence is widespread across various groups. The confidence index for Republicans has dropped nearly 3 points, the index for Democrats has fallen nearly 10 points, and the index for Independents has decreased by 5.4 points.
Consumer confidence affects economic growth in the coming months. Pessimistic consumer sentiment can suppress spending levels, thereby impacting economic recovery, while optimistic consumer sentiment contributes to future economic growth.
Get a sneak peek at important financial events and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Financial Calendar/Selected macro data., seizing investment opportunities!
Editor/lambor
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(2)
Reason For Report