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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ULCC) 41% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 14 20:38

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULCC) shares have had a horrible month, losing 41% after a relatively good period beforehand. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 22% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Frontier Group Holdings' P/S ratio of 0.3x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Airlines industry in the United States is also close to 0.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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NasdaqGS:ULCC Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 14th 2025

What Does Frontier Group Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Frontier Group Holdings has been doing relatively well. Perhaps the market is expecting this level of performance to taper off, keeping the P/S from soaring. If the company manages to stay the course, then investors should be rewarded with a share price that matches its revenue figures.

Keen to find out how analysts think Frontier Group Holdings' future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

How Is Frontier Group Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

Frontier Group Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 5.2% gain to the company's revenues. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 83% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% per year as estimated by the eleven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 321% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Frontier Group Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Frontier Group Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?

Frontier Group Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

When you consider that Frontier Group Holdings' revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Circumstances like this present a risk to current and prospective investors who may see share prices fall if the low revenue growth impacts the sentiment.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Frontier Group Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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