华鑫证券指出，2024年12月，生物安全法案尚未获得美国两院通过，2025年中国CRO企业将获得一些窗口期，而且美国总统更替之后，目前主要是增加关税，对于具备成本优势的中国企业，目前加税幅度并不影响CDMO的竞争优势，而且生物安全法案再通过的概率已显著降低，海外制药企业的顾虑会也会降低。国内订单方面，2024年医药投融资趋势并非好转，但已基本止跌。此外，预计更多CRO企业将积极拥抱AI技术，以寻求在竞争激烈的市场中提升竞争力。As of the time of writing, the CRO Concept has warmed up, with VIVA BIOTECH (01873) rising by 11.89% to 1.6 HKD; WUXI BIO (02269) increasing by 10.3% to 25.7 HKD; PHARMARON (03759) up by 5.67% to 16.04 HKD; and TIGERMED (03347) climbing by 5.86% to 37.05 HKD.
According to Zhitong Financial APP, the CRO Concept is warming up. As of the time of this report, VIVA BIOTECH (01873) is up 11.89%, priced at 1.6 HKD; WUXI BIO (02269) is up 10.3%, priced at 25.7 HKD; PHARMARON (03759) is up 5.67%, priced at 16.04 HKD; TIGERMED (03347) is up 5.86%, priced at 37.05 HKD.
GTJA pointed out that general large models like DeepSeek have surpassed 90% accuracy in protein folding prediction (AlphaFold benchmark test). Coupled with generative AI, efficiency in molecular structure generation has improved by 5-8 times, pushing the integration of AI + CXO into a new stage. The Global demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement among pharmaceutical companies is escalating, combined with the maturity of AI technologies, driving CXO companies to accelerate their intelligent transformation. Leading CXO companies like WUXI APPTEC, PHARMARON, Asymchem Laboratories, and TIGERMED have built AI technological barriers through self-research or collaboration, achieving efficiency improvements in target discovery, patient recruitment, and process optimization. The industry is evolving from being 'labor-intensive' to 'technology-driven.'
Huaxin Securities pointed out that in December 2024, the biological safety bill has not yet been passed by both houses of the USA. In 2025, Chinese CRO companies will receive some window period. Additionally, after the change in the US presidency, the main focus is on increasing tariffs. For Chinese companies with cost advantages, the current tax increases do not impact the competitive advantage of CDMO, and the probability of passing the biological safety bill again has significantly decreased, which will also alleviate concerns among overseas pharmaceutical companies. In terms of domestic orders, the trend of pharmaceutical investment and financing in 2024 is not improving, but it has basically stopped declining. Furthermore, it is expected that more CRO companies will actively embrace AI technologies to seek competitiveness in a fiercely competitive market.
