With only two days left before the deadline, the USA government is facing an imminent shutdown crisis.

As Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer clearly stated on Wednesday that the Democrats would reject the House's funding bill, negotiations between the White House and Congress over budget issues have reached an impasse, greatly increasing the risk of a government shutdown this Friday.

Meanwhile, Schumer hopes to buy more time with a one-month short-term funding bill. However, it remains unclear whether Schumer will be able to gain the support of moderate Democrats to carry out this threat, let alone maintain the costs of extending the 'shutdown'—which could lead to political chaos and harm already struggling federal workers.

In the Senate, 60 votes are needed to overcome procedural hurdles, and the Republicans have only 53 senators in the Senate. Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn stated that he believes Schumer is bluffing:

"We will not create a short-term bill."

The question before all parties is whether a compromise can be reached at the last moment in the context of severe bipartisan division. If an agreement cannot be reached, the USA government will face the embarrassment of a shutdown.

The opposition voices of Democratic senators.

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives narrowly passed a temporary funding resolution with a vote of 217 to 213, aimed at providing funding for the government to operate until the end of September.

However, this move has not eased tensions between the two parties; instead, it has intensified the conflict. The bill was mainly drafted by Republicans and was almost entirely in line with Republican wishes without consulting the Democrats. The bill received support from only one Democrat.

According to a report by CNBC on the 13th, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer clearly stated on Wednesday that the Democrats would reject the House's funding bill. He believes that the Republicans completely excluded Democrats from the drafting process, which is unacceptable.

Schumer called for a one-month short-term funding bill to allow more time for negotiation and to reach an agreement. He stated:

"Our core group was in agreement on the CR (Continuing Resolution) from April 11, which will keep the government open and give Congress time to negotiate bipartisan legislation that can be passed.

"I hope our Republican colleagues can join us to avoid a shutdown on Friday."

Despite this, it remains uncertain whether Schumer can garner enough support from moderate Democrats. A prolonged shutdown could trigger political backlash and harm the interests of federal workers who are already in a difficult position.

New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen stated that she believes some Senate Republicans are dissatisfied with the House's bill and may agree to this short-term measure. Nevertheless, Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski expressed that she "hates" the House's bill, but does not believe a short-term bill can pass Congress.

The Republican response: to hold firm on positions while seeking compromise.

At the same time, the Republican Party seems unwilling to make concessions.

They tend to stick to the six-month continuing resolution passed by the House and hope to resolve the issue promptly to focus on advancing Trump's legislative agenda, including border security and tax reform.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that if the Democrats agree to hold all final votes on the House bill before the deadline, he is willing to allow a vote on a short-term spending bill by the Democrats. Thune said:

"Ultimately, we want to fund the government. We hope they do too. The way to achieve that is through a CR (continuing resolution proposed by the House). If they want to set up some kind of agreement for us to vote on, we can take a look at it."

However, Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn believes Schumer is bluffing. "We will not pass a short-term bill," he stated.

The dilemma of a government shutdown: to accept or reject?

There are also divisions within the Democratic Party.

Some Democrats, especially grassroots voters, hope to limit Trump's and Musk's efforts to cut federal Institutions through confrontation. Senator TIM Kaine stated that the Democrats had no involvement in the bill and hoped for the opportunity to vote on amendments, which became their position.

However, many moderates prefer to wait and let Trump fail on economic issues without intervening in his actions. A government shutdown may also shift certain responsibilities for the increasingly unstable economy onto the Democrats. Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman explicitly stated that he would never vote in favor of shutting down the government, arguing that doing so would "punish millions or risk an economic recession."

Some analyses suggest that Democrats have historically been more reluctant than Republicans to threaten a government shutdown, partly because the party ideologically places a high value on government services and public welfare. However, there are also concerns that not drawing a clear line now would set a precedent for the Republicans to implement Musk's cuts (targeting fiscal year 2026) in a larger confrontation in the fall.

Overall, due to the stalemate between the two parties on the spending bill, the risk of the US government shutting down this Friday has significantly increased. Although both sides are seeking compromise, there remains uncertainty about whether an agreement can be reached. Market participants are closely monitoring the situation, as a government shutdown could have negative impacts on financial markets and the US economy.

Editor/ping