摩根大通的Positioning Intelligence团队最新报告指出，对冲基金的拥挤交易（crowding）在过去一个月经历了大幅下跌，接近过去几年的最差水平JPMorgan pointed out that the crowded trades of Hedge Funds experienced a significant decline over the past month, nearing the worst levels of the past few years, indicating that much of the market adjustment may have been completed. Although the overall leverage ratio remains high, it has begun to gradually decrease. JPMorgan believes that the most ideal scenario for the market is a steady recovery, with volatility gradually decreasing, thereby providing more room for risk adjustment.
Recently, the US stock market has experienced its fastest and most severe decline since the crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Star Stocks have plummeted over 50% from their historical highs.$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$They have also entered into oversold territory.
However, with the easing of trade wars and tariff tensions, the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine re-emerging, along with robust US economic data, has the market hit the bottom? Is a rebound about to begin? JPMorgan's latest Research Report provides an optimistic forecast.
JPMorgan's Positioning Intelligence team's latest report points out that the crowded trades in hedge funds have seen a significant drop over the past month, approaching the worst levels seen in recent years, indicating that most of the market adjustments may have been completed. Although the overall leverage remains high, it has started to gradually decline. JPMorgan believes that the most ideal scenario for the market is a steady recovery, with volatility gradually decreasing, thereby providing more room for risk adjustments.
The report also indicates that from the perspective of net positions, the net risk of CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) in US Stocks has approached levels seen in October 2023, although still above the lows of 2022. The net flows of hedge funds in North American stocks were relatively negative from late January to mid-February, but have recently turned positive, especially in large technology stocks and the Software Sector. Retail and ETF fund flows have shown mixed results but have not indicated any signs of large-scale sell-offs.
Additionally, it is worth noting that, after nearly a month of intense selling, retail investors do not seem to have been scared off. Data from Goldman Sachs' trading department shows that retail investors are rapidly returning and making large purchases.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、$Tesla (TSLA.US)$、$Netflix (NFLX.US)$and$Ford Motor (F.US)$Otherpopular stocksThis phenomenon indicates that market sentiment is gradually improving, and investors' risk appetite has increased.
At the same time, the performance of hedge funds has started to improve. According to Goldman Sachs Prime data, on Tuesday, the ROI of fundamental long-short strategy hedge funds reached 0.7%, marking the best single-day performance in nearly three years. Although the overall performance year-to-date is still negative, the ALPHA value has turned positive to +0.5%, demonstrating the advantages of hedge funds in asset selection and volatility management.
Despite the improvement in market sentiment, not everyone believes that the bottom has been confirmed.
Goldman Sachs's Lindsay Matcham pointed out that the bottom of the USA economy has not yet fully manifested, for the following reasons:
The influence of DOGE has not yet fully reflected in economic data (including non-farm payroll); the bond market has not yet priced in a recession; the cost of downside protection remains relatively low; credit spreads are still narrow, indicating that rising borrowing costs have not yet had a significant impact on the real economy; the probability of a recession (20%) is still low.
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