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US stock market outlook | February PPI and initial unemployment claims were lower than expected! The decline in the three major futures indexes narrowed before the market opened, Intel rose by more than 11% against the trend, and Dollar General increased

Futu News · Mar 13 20:48

热点要闻

周四，2月PPI低于预期，美股三大股指期货跌幅收窄。

美国2月PPI同比增长3.2%，预期增长3.3%，前值由增长3.5%修正为3.7%。美国2月PPI环比持平，预期增长0.3%，前值增长0.4%。

美国至3月8日当周初请失业金人数为22万人，预期为22.5万人，前值由22.1万人修正为22.2万人。

明星科技股盘前多数下跌， $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$跌1.25%，$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$跌0.04%，$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$跌1.96%，$Meta Platforms (META.US)$跌0.81%，$苹果 (AAPL.US)$跌0.45%。

热门中概股盘前涨跌各现， $百度 (BIDU.US)$涨2.63%， $小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$涨0.4%，$蔚来 (NIO.US)$跌近1%。

量子计算概念股上扬，$英特尔 (INTC.US)$涨近12%，$D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ 涨超4%， $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$涨超3%。

美国达乐公司盘前涨超6%，Q4每股收益及营收超出预期

$美国达乐公司 (DG.US)$ 盘前涨超6%，格式发布了第四季度的财报，数据显示，公司营收高于分析师的预期，每股收益超出了分析师的预期。

百度盘前涨近2%，一度涨近4%，特斯拉将与百度合作

$百度 (BIDU.US)$盘前涨近2%，有消息称特斯拉与百度合作，以改进辅助驾驶系统在中国的表现。

台积电盘前跌近3%，台股遭遇史上最严重的外资抛售

$台积电 (TSM.US)$盘前跌近3%，据悉，中国台湾股市遭遇史上最严重的外资抛售，截至周四(13日)全球基金在过去13个交易日内共净抛售总值4145.8亿台币的台股。台湾证券交易所资料显示，周四外资及陆资在台股卖超236.24亿台币，上日为卖超172.1亿台币，连续13个交易日共卖超4145.8亿台币。

英特尔盘前涨超11%，任命陈立武为新CEO 目标重新成为世界级产品公司

$英特尔 (INTC.US)$盘前涨超11%，消息面上，英特尔宣布，其董事会已任命陈立武(Lip-BuTan)担任首席执行官，该任命自3月18日起生效。陈立武在全员信中表示，在其领导下，英特尔将成为一家以工程为中心的公司，“我们将共同努力恢复英特尔作为世界级产品公司的地位，将自己打造为全球顶级代工厂”。

Adobe盘前跌超5%，第二财季业绩指引略低于市场预期

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$盘前跌超5%，消息面上，Adobe公布截至今年2月28日止2025财年首财季营收为57.1亿美元，超过分析师预期的56.6亿美元；经调整后每股盈利为5.08美元，高于预期的4.97美元。衡量未来销售额的剩余履约义务为197亿美元，则低于分析师平均预期的198亿美元。

Palantir被散户热捧的时候，CEO一直在“疯狂套现”

自2024年初以来，CEO Alex Karp已通过公司股票出售计划抛售了价值19亿美元的 $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ 股票，出售额仅次于Meta的扎克伯格。Karp以其非传统的言论和行为而闻名，但其“出格”言论却似乎深受散户投资者的喜爱。

Siri升级推迟，iPhone换机潮要凉？大摩下调苹果目标价

分析师警告，约50%未升级到iPhone 16的 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 用户承认，延迟推出AI功能影响了他们的升级决定。延迟推出更先进的Siri功能，可能会影响苹果在2026财年加速iPhone升级率的计划。苹果产品更新周期一直是投资者关注的重要指标。

全球宏观

CPI降温利好降息？大摩泼冷水：PCE依然坚挺，美联储今年依然只降一次息！

美国隔夜公布的通胀数据显示，CPI全面低于预期，通胀放缓迹象明显，引发了市场对美联储可能加速降息的猜测。摩根士丹利最新发布的研报却泼了一盆冷水，指出虽然CPI数据有所改善，但更受美联储青睐的核心PCE通胀数据将依然坚挺，今年降息的次数可能只有一次，时间点或在6月。摩根大通的报告也佐证了这一观点，认为PCE数据依然强劲。

衰退的信号？从日用品到奢侈品，美国消费全线萎靡

面对持续的关税压力、顽固的通货膨胀以及对经济衰退的新担忧，美国消费者正在全面收紧钱包。Target、 Foot Locker和Lowe’s等零售商都报告称，2月份需求疲软；在Macy’s购物的 “富裕客户也同样对正在发生的事情感到不确定、困惑和担忧”。

铜价要破万了？关税前抢进口，美国囤货潮或引爆全球铜库存危机

全球铜价近期持续走高，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价已接近每吨1万美元关口。花旗表示，未来三个月内，铜价将突破1万美元/吨大关，全球铜市将持续紧张直至美国进口关税政策明朗。高盛则表示，到第三季度末，铜价上涨将使美国铜库存从目前的9.5万吨激增到至少30万至40万吨，占全球报告库存的45-60%，其他地区的铜库存将非常低。

小摩预警解除：美股“至暗时刻“或已过，信贷市场释放关键信号

小摩，美国股市此次调整的最糟糕阶段可能已经过去，信贷市场的表现显示美国经济衰退的风险正在降低。报告指出，信贷市场在过去两年中多次被证明是准确的，此次它对美国经济衰退风险的预期也比股票或利率市场更为乐观。他们认为，信贷市场对美国经济衰退风险的怀疑态度，值得投资者关注。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国至3月8日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国2月PPI

22:30 美国至3月7日当周EIA天然气库存(亿立方英尺)

编辑/danial

Hot News

On Thursday, the February PPI was lower than expected, and the decline in the three major USA stock index futures narrowed.

In February, the USA PPI increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with an expected growth of 3.3%, and the previous value was revised from a growth of 3.5% to 3.7%. The month-on-month PPI in the USA was flat in February, with an expected growth of 0.3%, and the previous value had a growth of 0.4%.

For the week ending March 8 in the USA, the number of initial jobless claims was 0.22 million people, with an expectation of 0.225 million people, and the previous value was revised from 0.221 million people to 0.222 million people.

Most Growth Tech stocks fell in Pre-Market Trading. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Down 1.25%,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Down 0.04%,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$Down 1.96%.$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Down 0.81%.$Apple (AAPL.US)$down 0.45%.

China Concept Stocks show mixed fluctuations in Pre-Market Trading. $Baidu (BIDU.US)$Increased by 2.63%, $XPeng (XPEV.US)$Increased by 0.4%,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Decreased by nearly 1%.

Quantum Computing concept stocks have risen.$Intel (INTC.US)$Increased by nearly 12%,$D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ Increased by over 4%, $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$Increased by over 3%.

Dollar General is up over 6% in Pre-Market Trading; Q4 EPS and revenue exceeded expectations.

$Dollar General (DG.US)$ In Pre-Market Trading, up over 6%, the company released its fourth quarter Earnings Reports, showing that revenue surpassed Analyst expectations, and EPS exceeded Analyst expectations.

Baidu is up nearly 2% in Pre-Market Trading, once up nearly 4%, Tesla will collaborate with Baidu.

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, an increase of nearly 2% is noted, with reports suggesting that Tesla is collaborating with Baidu to improve the performance of its assisted driving system in China.

Taiwan Semiconductor fell nearly 3% in Pre-Market Trading as the **** stock market experienced the most severe foreign sell-off in history.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, a decline of nearly 3% is observed. Reports indicate that the Taiwan stock market is facing the most severe foreign sell-off in history, with global Funds having net sold a total of 414.58 billion New Taiwan dollars in the past 13 trading days as of Thursday (13th). Data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange shows that on Thursday, foreign and mainland investors net sold 23.624 billion New Taiwan dollars worth of stocks, compared to a net sell of 17.21 billion New Taiwan dollars the previous day, marking 13 consecutive trading days of selling exceeding 414.58 billion New Taiwan dollars.

Intel saw a surge of over 11% in Pre-Market Trading after appointing Chen Lifeng as the new CEO with the goal of becoming a world-class product company again.

$Intel (INTC.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, Intel increased over 11%, with news that its Board of Directors has appointed Lip-Bu Tan as CEO, effective March 18. In a message to all employees, Lip-Bu Tan stated that under his leadership, Intel will become an engineering-focused company, "We will work together to restore Intel's status as a world-class product company and position ourselves as a top-tier global foundry."

Adobe fell over 5% in Pre-Market Trading, with its second-quarter performance guidance slightly below market expectations.

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock dropped over 5%. Regarding news, Adobe reported its first fiscal quarter revenue for the 2025 fiscal year, ending February 28, at 5.71 billion USD, exceeding the Analyst expectation of 5.66 billion USD; adjusted EPS was 5.08 USD, higher than the expected 4.97 USD. The remaining performance obligations that measure future sales were 19.7 billion USD, which is lower than the average Analyst expectation of 19.8 billion USD.

When Palantir was favored by retail investors, the CEO was "cashing out like crazy".

Since the beginning of 2024, CEO Alex Karp has sold 1.9 billion USD worth of Stocks through the company's stock sale program. $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ The sales volume is second only to Meta's Zuckerberg. Karp is known for his unconventional comments and behavior, but his 'out-of-the-box' statements seem to be quite popular with retail investors.

Siri upgrade delays, will the iPhone replacement wave cool down? Morgan Stanley lowers Apple’s Target Price.

Analysts warn that about 50% have not upgraded to the iPhone 16. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Users admit that the delayed launch of AI features affected their upgrade decisions. The delay in releasing more advanced Siri capabilities may impact Apple's plans to accelerate iPhone upgrade rates in fiscal year 2026. The product update cycle for Apple has always been an important indicator of concern for investors.

Global Macro

CPI cooling is Bullish for interest rate cuts? Morgan Stanley pours cold water: PCE remains strong, and the Federal Reserve will still only cut rates once this year!

The inflation data released overnight in the USA shows that CPI is significantly below expectations, indicating a clear slowdown in inflation, which has sparked market speculation about the Federal Reserve possibly accelerating interest rate cuts. However, the latest research report from Morgan Stanley poured cold water on this, pointing out that while CPI data has improved, the core PCE inflation data, which the Federal Reserve favors more, will remain robust, and there may only be one interest rate cut this year, potentially in June. JPMorgan's report also supports this view, indicating that PCE data remains strong.

Signs of recession? From daily necessities to luxury goods, consumer spending in the USA is weak across the board.

Faced with ongoing tariff pressures, stubborn inflation, and new concerns about economic recession, American consumers are tightening their wallets comprehensively. Retailers like Target, Foot Locker, and Lowe’s reported weak demand in February; 'affluent customers shopping at Macy’s are also feeling uncertain, confused, and worried about what is happening.'

Will Copper prices break ten thousand? Before the tariffs, there is a rush to import, and the trend of stockpiling in the USA may trigger a global copper inventory crisis.

Global Copper prices have continued to rise recently, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper prices nearing 0.01 million USD per ton. Citigroup stated that in the next three months, Copper prices will break through the 0.01 million USD/ton threshold, and the global Copper market will remain tight until the USA's import tariff policy is clarified. Goldman Sachs indicated that by the end of the third quarter, the rise in Copper prices will cause USA Copper inventories to surge from the current 0.095 million tons to at least 0.3 million to 0.4 million tons, accounting for 45-60% of global reported inventories, while inventories in other regions will be very low.

JPMorgan has lifted its warning: the "darkest hour" for the USA stock market may be over, and the Crediting market is sending key signals.

JPMorgan believes that the worst phase of this adjustment in the USA stock market may have passed, as the performance of the Crediting market shows that the risk of a USA economic recession is decreasing. The report pointed out that the Crediting market has proven to be accurate multiple times over the past two years, and its expectations regarding the risk of USA economic recession are more optimistic than those of the stock or interest rate markets. They believe the Crediting market's skepticism about the risk of a USA economic recession is worth investors' attention.

Pre-Market Trading Top 20 by transaction volume.

Macro calendar reminders for the USA stock market.

(The following are all in Beijing Time)

20:30 Initial jobless claims in the USA for the week ending March 8 (thousands), USA February PPI.

22:30 EIA Natural Gas inventory in the USA for the week ending March 7 (billion cubic feet).

Editor/danial

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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