欧洲九国2月新能源车注册量17.60万辆，同比+19.3%，环比+1.9%，渗透率24.6%，同比+4.5pct，环比+0.7pct。分国家来看：In February, the registration of Electric Vehicles in nine European countries reached 0.176 million units, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 24.6%, up by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points month-on-month.
According to the Zhito Finance APP, CSC has released a Research Report stating that the total sales of Electric Vehicles in Europe for the entire year of 2024 will be 2.9714 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. In February, the registration of Electric Vehicles in nine European countries was 0.176 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, a penetration rate of 24.6%, with an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points month-on-month. Based on the postponement of the EU carbon emission assessment, it is expected that sales of Electric Vehicles in Europe will increase by 10% year-on-year to exceed 3.267 million units in 2025. However, the registration volume in the first two months of 2025 for the nine European countries shows a strong year-on-year growth of 22%, and there remains a chance to reach over 3.4 million units in 2025. Bullish on the domestic midstream lithium battery and material supply chains overseas.
The main viewpoints of CSC are as follows:
In February, the registration volume of Electric Vehicles in nine European countries reached 0.176 million units, which represents a year-on-year increase of 19.3% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9%. The penetration rate is 24.6%, up by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points month-on-month. By country:
1) United Kingdom: February sales reached 0.0285 million units, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of +35.2%/-32.5%. The month-on-month decline is mainly due to the replacement cycle of old and new license plates, but the year-on-year performance remains strong, mainly because the UK government announced a plan to align the vehicle taxes of Electric Vehicles with those of RBOB Gasoline vehicles starting April 1, which brought some sales forward. 2) France: February sales reached 0.0318 million units, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of -15.5%/+28.3%. The ecological bonus for February 2025 will decrease by 3,000 euros, leading to pressure on year-on-year sales due to the reduction of subsidies, with a decline greater than the total sales of Passenger Vehicles.
3) Germany: February sales reached 0.0553 million units, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of +31.5%/+5.9%. The year-on-year growth is attributed to the early reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles, and the base from the same period in 2024 is relatively low. 4) Italy: February sales reached 0.0132 million units, with year-on-year/month-on-month changes of +35.3%/+13.7%. Year-on-year growth is due to the reduction in taxes for using Electric Vehicles from 2025, coupled with a relatively low base from the same period in 2024.
5) Nordic countries: In February, Norway/Sweden/Denmark saw sales of 0.0086/0.012/0.008 million units respectively, with year-on-year changes of +26.8%/+23.2%/+46.1% and month-on-month changes of -4.8%/+18.3%/+12.4%.
Policy side:
The European Commission will soon pass a new amendment to the carbon emission assessment, and the carbon emission assessment target originally set for 2025 may be relaxed to a three-year completion, using the average carbon emissions from 2025 to 2027 as compliance criteria. China Securities Co.,Ltd. predicts that under compliance conditions, the total sales of electric vehicles in Europe from 2025 to 2027 will be 10.5296 million units. If the sales of electric vehicles in 2025 increase by 5%/10%/15% year-on-year to 3.119 million/3.267 million/3.416 million units, it would only place pressure on the total sales from 2026 to 2027 of 0.357 million/0.208 million/0.06 million units. Based on the delay of the EU carbon emission assessment, it is expected that the sales of electric vehicles in Europe will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, exceeding 3.267 million units. However, the registration volume in nine European countries in January-February showed a strong performance with a year-on-year increase of 22%, and there is still a chance to achieve sales of over 3.4 million units in 2025.
Tesla impact analysis:
In February, the total sales in nine countries reached 0.012 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% and a month-on-month increase of 85.5%. Market share stood at 6.8%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.0 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.1 percentage points. Excluding Tesla, other automakers sold a total of 0.1639 million units in the nine countries, a year-on-year increase of 29.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3%.
1) In terms of year-on-year comparison, the decline in February is mainly due to intense competition in the European market, aging vehicle models, and unstable political conditions in Europe. By country, the year-on-year sales for Germany/Italy/Portugal/Denmark fell by -76.3%/-54.5%/-52.6%/-52.5% respectively.
2) In terms of month-on-month comparison, the increase in February is mainly due to the off-season in January and the low volume of delivered units, leading to a lower base. By country, the month-on-month sales for Spain/United Kingdom/France/Italy increased by +242.5%/+164.2%/+109.7%/+106.6% respectively.
In terms of symbols:
It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Kedali Industry (002850.SZ), Shangtai Technology (001301.SZ), Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. (300014.SZ), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709.SZ), CNGR Advanced Material (300919.SZ), Shenzhen Capchem Technology (300037.SZ), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Shenzhen Senior Technology Material (300568.SZ), Yunnan Energy New Material (002812.SZ), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology (688005.SH), Better Ray (835185.BJ), Hunan Zhongke Electric (300035.SZ), etc.
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