2025年以来的港股市场， $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 无疑是“最靓的崽”，去年股价暴涨121%后，年初至今又继续上攻逾50%，公司总市值更是突破万亿港元大关。在交易所之外，小米SU7 Ultra更是赚足了眼球，可谓流量、市场双丰收。

在此节点上， $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ 将于北京时间3月18日发布的四季度财报备受瞩目。目前市场普遍预测，2024Q4预计实现营收102.211 billion元，同比增加39.55%；预期每股收益0.218元，同比增加20.83%。近期共有31位分析师对该股做出评级，近九成分析师表示“强力推荐”。

整体来看，小米汽车成为2月新能源车企零售销量榜单的“新面孔”，零售继续保持在0.02 million辆以上，机构预计小米汽车业务Q4将继续实现创收，2026年将实现盈利；小米手机2024年Q4出货量大增，以13%的市份额保持在第三位；IoT业务受益于国补政策，Q4营收有望超30 billion元。

汽车业务：Q4有望带来17.4 billion元的收入

This year, the launch of the XIAOMI SU7 Ultra has certainly attracted attention. On February 27, Xiaomi announced the launch of the SU7 Ultra with a price of 0.5299 million yuan, and it broke the order threshold of 0.01 million vehicles within 2 hours of going on sale. On March 2, Lei Jun stated on Social Media, "In less than 3 days, we received orders for 0.019 million units, locking in over 0.01 million units, completing the annual target ahead of schedule."

In February of this year, the official list of top 10 retail sales of new energy vehicle companies was released, with Xiaomi Autos being a "new face" on the February list. Although the family currently has only one model, the XIAOMI SU7, its various sub-versions have still achieved considerable sales performance, with retail sales of Xiaomi Autos continuing to exceed 0.02 million vehicles in February.

Looking at past performance indicators, Xiaomi's automotive business revenue for the third quarter of 2024 is expected to be 9.697 billion yuan, with an adjusted net loss of 1.5 billion yuan and a gross margin of 17.1%.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Partner and President Lu Weibing stated during the Q3 earnings call that Xiaomi's automotive business is still in its early stages and has not yet fully scaled up. The high initial investment and cost-sharing from building its own factory and developing core technologies have led to anticipated short-term losses for this business. However, Lu Weibing emphasized that as delivery volumes gradually increase, the losses in Xiaomi's automotive business are expected to narrow, and the scale effect will become increasingly significant.

The market holds an optimistic view on the future development of Xiaomi Autos. Deutsche Bank predicts that Xiaomi Autos is expected to achieve profitability by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of net income reaching 40% from 2026 to 2027, and a compound annual growth rate of total revenue at 17%; by 2027, the gross margin of the automotive business may reach 25%, becoming the group's largest revenue Sector; recently, China International Capital Corporation released a Research Report stating that Xiaomi Autos is expected to deliver about 0.07 million units in the fourth quarter of 2024, generating revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points to 19.8%.

For the follow-up of Xiaomi's automotive business, Goldman Sachs suggests that investors focus on the performance of the XIAOMI SU7 Ultra on the Nürburgring track in the coming months, the expansion of the first phase of the electric vehicle factory, the construction of the second phase, progress on the second factory, and potential news about the new product launch event possibly held in April, as well as the release of the XIAOMI YU7 series between June and July.

The market has high hopes for the YU7 model that Xiaomi plans to launch in the second quarter. UBS Group estimates that the annual delivery volume for Xiaomi will be 0.305 million vehicles, holding high expectations for its sales and pricing. If the YU7 performs strongly in sales, it will greatly enhance Xiaomi's revenue for 2025 and the valuation of its electric vehicle business based on P/S.

Mobile Business: XIAOMI-W's smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 increased significantly, firmly securing the third position in the Global market.

According to data from Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2024, XIAOMI-W maintained third place with a 13% market share, being the only brand among the top three to achieve year-on-year growth. The Xiaomi 14 and Xiaomi 15 series have made achievements in the high-end flagship market, and in the high cost-performance market, XIAOMI-W continues to solidify its market position through sub-brands like REDMI and POCO.$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Chairman and CEO Lei Jun expressed high recognition of this and forwarded the relevant data.

Specifically, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Global Smart Phone market share ranking showed Apple leading with a 23% market share, followed by Samsung with a 16% market share. XIAOMI-W and Transsion held 13% and 8% market shares respectively, while vivo also held 8%.

Market research firm Omdia stated that XIAOMI-W's performance for the entire year of 2024 exceeded expectations, mainly due to the great success of the Xiaomi 15 series and Redmi K80 series in the Chinese market, as well as Xiaomi's active expansion into overseas markets such as Africa and Latin America.

Everbright also notes that regarding ASP (Average Selling Price), it is expected that Q4 2024 XIAOMI-W smartphone ASP will achieve growth both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to smartphone policy subsidies in some provinces and cities in China (such as Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hefei) + the launch of the Xiaomi 15 series + a higher proportion of shipments from regions in China with higher ASPs. In terms of gross margin, the Xiaomi 15 series, as the annual flagship model launched in 10M24, is expected to drive the gross margin of the smartphone business up to about 12% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024.

CMB International predicts that the improvement in XIAOMI-W's smartphone product portfolio and the impact of national subsidy policies on smart phones and Internet of Things products sales will be beneficial, and it remains Bullish on the expansion of XIAOMI-W smartphones in the Latin America, EMEA, and Southeast Asia markets looking forward to 2025.

IoT Business: Benefiting from national subsidies, Q4 revenue is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ After going public, the ecological chain expanded from mobile phone peripherals, such as headphones, speakers, and power banks, and also opened up various fields of smart hardware, including air purifiers, water purifiers, Rice Cookers, and other white goods, as well as Drones, balance bikes, and Siasun Robot&Automation, extending to home living consumables.

Pursuing cost-effectiveness among products with a relatively mature supply chain is a business strategy that Xiaomi is quite skilled at. For example, Xiaomi's Air Conditioner has created several low-priced "hot-selling" models. From last quarter's data, past performance growth has been very strong. In the third quarter of 2024, the shipment volume of Air Conditioners and Washing Machines is expected to grow year-on-year by 55% and 50%, respectively.

Everbright Securities pointed out that Xiaomi's IoT business benefits from the home appliance national subsidy policy, and Q4 2024 revenue is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan, with gross margin maintained at 20% level. In addition, China International Capital Corporation believes that Xiaomi's Surge OS 2 'Super Xiaoi' system has been opened to official version users in mid-January, further enhancing confidence in Xiaomi's "people, vehicle, and home" full ecological closed-loop model and its development in end-side AI.

What other expectations are there?

Lei Jun stated in the "Representative Channel" at this year's Two Sessions that the latest AI technology will be applied to various terminals. Besides products like Autos, Smart Phones, and home appliances, $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ There is also market interest in whether other terminal products are making progress, such as the XIAOMI-W glasses and Siasun Robot&Automation.

At the end of February this year, the official Weibo of XIAOMI-W glasses has been launched, with the certifying entity being Xiaomi Communications Technology Co., Ltd. This Weibo has not yet published any content. There are rumors that the XIAOMI-W AI glasses will be launched together with the SU7 Ultra, but the subsequent Xiaomi press conference made no mention of the AI glasses; however, it is an industry consensus that XIAOMI-W will release an AI glasses.

2025 is anticipated to be the year of the AI glasses explosion, driven by major companies flocking in, continuous upgrades of AI large models, and, most importantly, falling costs. Citibank released Research Reports stating that the fourth-quarter performance, first-quarter outlook, and release of AI smart glasses could become short-term driving factors for XIAOMI-W. UBS Group believes that if XIAOMI-W launches AI glasses on a large scale, it will enhance its edge AI ecosystem, promote Internet of Things (IoT) sales growth, and increase the valuation multiples of its core business.

In addition, the Siasun Robot&Automation team announced progress on humanoid robots, currently advancing the phased implementation of its CyberOne (Iron Big) on its own manufacturing line. CyberOne is officially defined as a "full-size humanoid bionic robot," supporting multiple scenarios such as home care and companionship. Whether there will be more progress in the future is worth looking forward to.

mooers, are you bullish on XIAOMI-W's fourth-quarter performance?

Welcome to discuss in the comments!

Xiaomi Group's live broadcast of the full-year performance for 2024 (real-time translation).

Mar 18 12:30

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