组织管理效率化：公司在组织架构改革后，持续对三大中心的融合协作进行优化，公司产能效能得到进一步发挥。其中：营销中心优化考核制度，激发销售人员拓客积极性；产品中心采用项目制进行内部竞争择优，同时对产品的费用决策权重加大；供应链中心持续提升效率，保质量、供应、时间和费用等。The three cycles of “channel, product, and management” resonated, and growth had a starting point. The company started the year well and is expected to maintain a steady growth trend. After internal organizational restructuring and integration of the three major centers of product, marketing, and supply chain, it is expected to resonate in the three cycles of “channel, product, and management”. We believe that the current strategic plan of the company is clear, the growth path is clear, and marginal trends are gradually strengthening.
Diversified channel layout: On the basis of consolidating traditional bakery baking channels, diversification will be a key direction to deal with new channel changes in 2025. The company actively explores snack mass sales systems, food and tea systems, supermarket systems, etc., while incorporating new channel development into the assessment system to motivate sales teams to make breakthroughs. Among them: in terms of mass sales of snacks, products have been initially introduced for testing; in terms of supermarket regulation, the company is actively implementing the “one customer, one policy” strategy, actively connecting with development, and is expected to contribute to growth throughout the year.
Single product serialization of production lines: The company clearly classifies products, including star categories, golden bulls, and problem categories, and provides targeted resource input allocation. At the same time, production line management is strengthened, and large single products are serialized; for long-tail production lines, resources are allocated to achieve better efficiency improvements. Categories such as cream, grease, and cake are expected to increase rapidly in 2025. Medium- to long-term development will follow the “concentric circle” model, such as gradually expanding to deep-processed products based on cream.
Efficient organizational management: After the organizational structure was reformed, the company continued to optimize the integration and collaboration of the three centers, and the company's production capacity efficiency was further exploited. Among them: the marketing center optimizes the assessment system to stimulate the enthusiasm of sales staff to expand customers; the product center uses a project system to select advantages in internal competition, while increasing the weight of product cost decisions; and the supply chain center continues to improve efficiency to ensure quality, supply, time and cost.
Investment advice: The company is subject to “good short-term data, while marginal changes and increases” in the procyclical catering chain. Marginal trends are strengthened, and the channel logic is expected to be implemented one after another. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.27/0.34/0.42 billion yuan in 2024-2026, corresponding PE of 26.5/21.5/17.4 times, respectively, to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations; food safety risk; risk of increased industry competition; risk of changes in consumer preferences
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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