“长端债券可能还有更多调整空间，因为最近的走势已经放弃了自12月以来基于宽松货币政策预期的涨幅，”包括Zuo Dayong在内的兴业证券公司的分析在一份报告中写道，“投资者应该保持防御性，我们建议降低仓位并转向较短期限，不应在下跌时买入。”FX168 Financial News (Asia Pacific) News The yield on China's 10-year treasury bonds is close to the much-publicized 2% level. Outsiders are worried that the recent bond sell-off may be exacerbated by supply pressure and Beijing's unwillingness to speed up monetary easing.
On Wednesday (March 12), the benchmark yield hovered around 1.93% after rising for four consecutive days. The yield on 30-year treasury bonds stabilized at 2.04%, surpassing 2% for the first time since December last year.
Since the central bank has not lowered interest rates or bank reserve ratios since September last year, Chinese bonds are under pressure this year. Increased supply, including plans to issue a record two-year treasury bond on Friday, and the recent rise in the Chinese stock market, have also reduced demand for fixed-income products.
“Long-term bonds may have more room for adjustment, as recent trends have abandoned gains based on loose monetary policy expectations since December,” an analysis by Societe Generale Securities, which includes Zuo Dayong, wrote in a report. “Investors should remain defensive. We recommend reducing positions and moving to a shorter term, and not buying when falling.”
The next key test for the world's second-largest bond market will come on Friday. At that time, China's Ministry of Finance plans to issue 167 billion yuan (about 23.1 billion US dollars) of two-year treasury Bonds. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this will be the largest issuance of this term Bonds in a single auction.
Meanwhile, the annual supply of new government bonds in the world's second-largest economy will increase to RMB 11.86 trillion this year. Previously, officials raised the general budget deficit target to about 4% of GDP, the highest level in more than 30 years.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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