周二，30年期政府债券的收益率短暂超过2%，这是今年首次。两年期票据的收益率周二基本持平，而基准10年债券的收益率上升三个基点，达到1.9%。FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) reported that this week, Chinese Bonds face a crucial test as the bond market faces intensified selling, while the Chinese government plans to issue a record two-year government bond.
The Ministry of Finance stated in a press release that it plans to sell 167 billion yuan (approximately 2.3 billion USD) of two-year government bonds on Friday, which, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, is the largest issuance volume for bonds of this maturity in a single auction. This move may challenge China's bond market, as any signs of weak demand during the auction could exacerbate the selling wave that has already pushed benchmark yields to their highest levels this year.
This year, Chinese bond yields have risen significantly due to the People's Bank of China's reluctance to loosen monetary policy, liquidity tightness, and optimism towards Chinese Stocks. The yield on two-year government bonds reached its highest level since October last year on Monday, rising about 50 basis points since the beginning of the year, which may deter investors from buying bonds due to concerns over further losses.
On Tuesday, the yield on 30-year government bonds briefly exceeded 2%, marking the first time this year. The yield on the two-year note was essentially flat on Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield increased by three basis points to reach 1.9%.
On Friday, another 30 billion yuan of 30-year bonds will be auctioned, the same as the previous issuance volume.
In recent weeks, bond losses have accelerated primarily due to weak demand for the notes. On February 14, the one-year yield rose by more than 9 basis points, the most since the beginning of 2023, as weak bids during the auction pushed up yields. Last week, another batch of one-year notes was sold at the highest yield since April 2024.
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior strategist at ANZ, stated that it may still be too early to say the auction results will be very bad, but in any case, the auction results will become a barometer of market sentiment.
Despite this, considering the ongoing deflationary pressures and Peking's 5% growth ambitions amid escalating trade tensions with the USA, some still expect the People's Bank of China to provide necessary liquidity support for the economy. However, the timing of any bold monetary stimulus measures remains uncertain, posing risks to the yuan.
Since last September, the central bank of China has not reduced interest rates or the deposit reserve ratio of Banks, and has paused purchasing government Bonds in the first two months of this year. Some local Fund companies believe that if the delay in lowering the deposit reserve ratio continues, the benchmark Bond yield may test 2%.
This year, the annual supply of newly issued government Bonds in China will increase to 11.86 trillion yuan, as officials have raised the general budget deficit target to about 4% of GDP, the highest level in more than thirty years.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(0)
Reason For Report