管线2.0：重新起航，发挥公司研发优势Summary:
Cornerstone Pharmaceutical is an innovation-driven biomedical enterprise focusing on anti-tumor drug research and development. As of February 2025, the company has successfully marketed 4 innovative drugs, approved 16 new drug marketing applications (NDAs), and 9 indications. The current R&D pipeline is balanced with 16 drug candidates, including potentially first-in-class or best-in-class antibody-conjugated drugs (ADCs), multi-specific antibodies, and immunotherapy and precision therapy drugs.
The company's main commercial products, sugarimab (PD-L1), platinib (RET), and avatinib (KIT/PDGFRA), have been commercialized; the key clinical projects CS5001 and CS2009 in the R&D pipeline 2.0 have great potential and are expected to continue to drive business growth.
Pipeline 2.0: restart and give full play to the company's R&D advantages
CS5001 (ROR1 ADC): CS5001 is a seed player in the company's current 2.0 pipeline. It has shown good potential benefits in multiple hematoma indications, and has also shown good tumor inhibitory activity in the field of solid tumors. Furthermore, the ROR1 ADC zilovertamab vedotin, a competitor with the same target and mechanism, has shown impressive data (100% CR) in 1L DLBCL. We believe that the company's CS5001 is expected to reap good commercialization results with its differentiated design and the second-highest clinical progress in the world.
CS2009 (PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 triple antibody): Preclinical data showed that crosslinking with VEGFA can significantly enhance anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA4 activity, and has clearly superior anti-tumor activity to potential competitors. On December 23, 2024, Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals announced that CS2009 had submitted a clinical trial application in Australia. Considering the potential shown by PD-1, VEGF, and CTLA-4 targets in single drugs and in combination, the good pre-clinical data of CS2009 and the scope of application of common tumors, CS2009 is expected to become the next promising variety after CS5001.
Pipeline 1.0: Many potential varieties have entered the commercialization stage, and local production is expected to accelerate the implementation of results
Sugarimab: It is the 2nd PD-L1 monoclonal antibody produced in China and the 4th PD-L1 monoclonal antibody approved domestically. As of February 2025, all five indications of sugarizumab have been approved in mainland China, and domestic commercialization has been authorized to Pfizer, so Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals can receive license revenue. In 2024, sugarizumab 1L NSCLC indications were successively approved in the European Union and the United Kingdom. Subsequent revenue and milestones from overseas partners are expected to continue to increase the company's revenue.
Platinib & Avatinib: Both drugs were introduced from Blueprint in 2018. The drug competition pattern is good, and the cost is high because local production has not been completed. Considering that the commercialization of Platinib and Avatinib is currently authorized to Alis and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, and after local production is completed, the company is expected to improve drug accessibility through strategies such as price reduction and medical insurance. The next 2 products are expected to accelerate the release of the next 2 products.
Profit forecast
We expect the company's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 0.386/0.516/0.829 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of -16.68%/33.59%/60.62%, respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is -0.003/0.029/0.093 billion yuan, respectively.
The company has entered the pipeline 2.0 era. Considering the outstanding commercialization potential of ROR1 ADC and PD-1/VEGF/CTLA-4 and the accelerated commercialization of existing varieties, the market value of the company is estimated using the DCF method. Assuming that WACC is 7.29%, the sustainable growth rate is 0.5%, the corresponding market value is 8.673 billion HKD/share, and the target price is HK$6.75 per share.
Risk warning: drug development risk, market competition risk, operating risk, Hong Kong stock liquidity risk, estimation is subjective risk
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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