在2023年及以前，公司四川水电铝的电费为按全年均价结算，2024年开始由于四川省电力交易方案变更，电力用户需打捆购入非水电成分，丰、平、枯水期非水电量比例为30%、40%、60%，即在水电基础上添加一部分火电比例，而火电电价更高，导致用电成本提升。而四川省2025年的电力交易规则再次变更，用户不再打捆配置非水电量，因此添加火电的比例可能有所下降，公司四川水电电费有望同比降低。Bankruptcy and restructuring were completed, and an employee stock ownership plan was introduced. The company was founded in 1993. The controlling shareholder is Yulian Group. Its main business includes three segments: electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, and coal, with production capacity of 0.75/0.69/2.25 million tons respectively. Since the company's early main equipment all used advanced but expensive imported equipment, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Henan was affected by the shutdown of production during the heating season, the company fell into an ST crisis in 2019, and creditors filed a bankruptcy and restructuring application with the court in 2020. The company's restructuring plan was completed at the end of 2021, and the cap was successfully removed in 2022. In February of this year, the company announced the 2025 employee stock ownership plan (draft), which transferred 0.26 billion shares of the special account through an agreed transfer, accounting for 6.47% of the total share capital; the number of participating employees did not exceed 6,500, accounting for 74% of the total number of employees.
The company's electrolytic aluminum equity production capacity increased to 0.75 million tons. The company's combined production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 0.75 million tons. Starting in 2023, it has gone through two share acquisitions, increasing equity production capacity by 50%: 1) Acquiring 25% of the subsidiary Zhongfu Aluminum's shares with 1.026 billion yuan in 2023, increasing equity production capacity from 0.5019 million tons to 0.6285 million tons; 2) Acquiring the remaining 24% of Zhongfu Aluminum's shares with its own capital of 1.254 billion yuan in 2024 million yuan. The tonne rose to 0.75 million tons. The acquisition was registered as a commercial and commercial in March 2025, so far the company's equity ratio in electrolytic aluminum has reached 100%.
Starting in 2025, the electricity bill for hydropower and aluminum in Sichuan is expected to drop year on year. Of the company's 0.75 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, 0.5 million tons are aluminum for hydropower in Guangyuan, Sichuan; 0.25 million tons are aluminum for thermal power in Gongyi, Henan.
Before 2023, the company's electricity bill for Sichuan Hydropower and Aluminum was settled at the average price for the whole year. Starting in 2024, due to changes in the Sichuan Electricity Trade Plan, electricity users needed to bundle non-hydropower components. The ratio of non-hydropower during the rich, ping, and dry water periods was 30%, 40%, and 60%, that is, adding a portion of thermal power to the hydropower supply, and the price of thermal power was higher, leading to an increase in electricity costs. However, the electricity trading rules in Sichuan Province in 2025 were changed again, and users are no longer bundled with non-hydroelectric power, so the proportion of additional thermal power may have declined, and the company's hydropower bills in Sichuan are expected to decrease year-on-year.
Alumina prices have declined, and profits of electrolytic aluminum have increased. The company does not have alumina production capacity, and the alumina used to produce electrolytic aluminum is all outsourced. Therefore, when the price of alumina rises significantly in 2024, the company's profits from electrolytic aluminum are seriously squeezed. Since 2025, the price of alumina has dropped sharply. The average price in January-February was 4,150 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price of 5,318 yuan/ton in 2024Q4, it has fallen 22.0% month-on-month. As of March 5, 2025, the spot price of alumina had fallen to 3,387 yuan/ton, and the decline continues. We estimate that under the assumption that the price of alumina is 3,300 yuan/ton and the price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,000 yuan/ton, the company's net profit per ton of alumina can reach about 2,700 yuan/ton, which is a significant increase over 2024.
Profit forecast and valuation: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.767/2.102/2.662 billion yuan in 2023-2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -33.86%/+174.24%/+26.62%, respectively; EPS 0.19/0.52/0.66, respectively. Through relative valuation, we believe that the reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is between 4.93-5.98 yuan. Compared with the current stock price, there is 18.77%-44.05% premium space, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: valuation risk; risk of electricity costs falling short of expectations; risk of production and sales falling short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in aluminum prices; risk of recurrence of coal mine production safety accidents.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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