投资建议：预计公司2024-2026 年实现营业收入461.61、489.83、568.87亿元，实现归母净利润22.91、35.30、40.74 亿元，同比增长-21.1%、54.1%、15.4%，对应EPS 分别为0.62、0.96、1.10 元，当前股价对应的PE 倍数为17.5X、11.4X、9.9X，技术储备、一体化建设、成熟的管理决策是公司稳健的底色，组件与大储在高门槛市场的放量有望驱动公司在下行周期仍跑出分 化，予以“买入”评级。Incident: On February 28, 2025, the company released its 2024 performance report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 46.161 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%, and realized net profit of 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.09%, corresponding to a net profit of 0.336 billion yuan in the 24Q4 single quarter, up 433.33% year on year and 53.07% month-on-month. The fluctuation was mainly due to depreciation at the end of the year. The overall performance was still relatively steady.
Brand channel advantages are remarkable, and the boom in large storage volumes continues. The company has made solid accumulation in various key aspects of the energy storage business, such as global business expansion, overseas localization team building, product development, and industrial chain cultivation. During the reporting period, a large amount of energy storage project reserves and contract orders entered the harvest period. Shipments of 6.5 GWh were achieved throughout the year 24, an increase of 505.28% over the previous year. It is expected to ship 2-2.4 GWh in a single quarter in 24Q4, maintaining an increase of more than 10% over the third quarter, making it the company's strong second main business. As of November 30, 2024, the company's energy storage has an energy storage system order reserve of about 60 GWh, with an order amount of 3.2 billion US dollars already signed. The order resources are sufficient and widely distributed, mainly in overseas markets such as North America, Europe, Australia, Latin America, Japan, etc., building a solid foundation for the company's shipment volume growth next year and achieving a steady profit level. It is expected to achieve 11-13 GWh of energy storage shipments throughout the year 25, nearly doubling the high growth rate over the previous year.
The component business focuses on moving through the profit cycle and steadily lays out a high-profit market. Irrational competition in the PV main chain is intensifying. The company's module business continues to implement the current strategy to prioritize profits and achieve a good quantitative balance to achieve the company's operational stability and financial health. Shipments of 24Q4 modules are expected to be 8-8.5GW, which fluctuates slightly from the third quarter. Total annual shipments are about 30GW, which is in line with expectations. Q4 single-watt profit is clearly affected by fluctuations in the shipping structure and impairment calculation at the end of the year. It is expected that there will be a slight decline. Industry-leading internationalization capabilities and global brand channels have always been the company's core underpinning. The first-mover advantage in 5GW module+5GW battery production capacity in the high-profit market is expected to further consolidate the company's overseas advantage and share, and capture and explore high-margin orders. It is expected that module shipments will be 30-35 GW in 2025, maintaining a dynamic balance between scale and profit.
Investment advice: The company is expected to achieve operating income of 46.161, 48.983, and 56.887 billion yuan in 2024-2026, and achieve net profit of 2.291, 3.53, and 4.074 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of -21.1%, 54.1%, and 15.4%. The corresponding EPS ratio is 0.62, 0.96, and 1.10 yuan respectively. The PE multiples corresponding to the current stock price are 17.5X, 11.4X, and 9.9X. Technical reserves, integrated construction, and mature management decisions are the company A steady undertone, and the volume of components and large reserves in the high-threshold market are expected to drive the company to diverge in the downturn cycle and give it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: PV installations fall short of expectations, risk of fluctuating raw material costs, risk of overseas exchange, risk of increased industry competition, etc.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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