除了针对价格敏感消费者的“拼好饭”和满足品质需求的品牌卫星店外，美团自2025年1月起推出“浣熊食堂”，该模式将连锁餐厅摊位集中，消费者可一次订购多家商户商品节省配送费，还能提升营运效率和单位经济(UE)，因为骑手能从集中地点配送多份订单。UBS Group believes that its stock price may enter a consolidation phase before the earnings announcement, awaiting clearer information on growth prospects, the impact of rider social insurance, and the scale of overseas expansion.
According to the Zhithong Finance APP, UBS Group released a Research Report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating on MEITUAN-W (03690) with a Target Price of 270 HKD. MEITUAN's food delivery Orders in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased steadily by 10% year-on-year, and the firm believes that its unit economics in the fourth quarter have the potential to exceed market expectations (consensus at 1.2 RMB).
UBS Group stated that through interviews with experts from third-party local service agencies, it was learned that since the integration of MEITUAN's "Home" and "In-Store" services into the divine membership plan in July 2024, the number of memberships had grown to approximately 0.12 billion by December (a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter), accounting for 24% of monthly active users (MAU). The purchasing frequency of members is, on average, 25% higher than that of non-members, and a higher membership penetration rate will support the future growth of average revenue per user (ARPU). Experts expect Order growth to stabilize at 10% in 2025.
In addition to the "Pineapples Good Rice" for price-sensitive consumers and the brand satellite stores that meet quality needs, MEITUAN will launch the "Raccoon Canteen" starting January 2025. This model will consolidate chain restaurant stalls, allowing consumers to order from multiple merchants at once to save on delivery fees, while also enhancing operational efficiency and unit economics (UE), as riders can deliver multiple orders from a centralized location.
After significant improvement in unit economics in 2024, considering the increased support for merchants and the expanded coverage of rider social insurance, experts expect a stable trend in unit economics in 2025. With high market expectations, MEITUAN is currently trading at a PE ratio of 18 times for the year 2025. UBS Group believes that its stock price may enter a consolidation phase before the earnings announcement, awaiting clearer information on growth prospects, the influence of rider social insurance, and the scale of overseas expansion. In the short term, facing a challenging macro environment, MEITUAN is expected to focus on ecosystem investments and merchant support, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on MEITUAN's moat advantage and robust monetization potential in the locally service sector, where penetration remains low.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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