With the National Two Sessions of 2025 approaching, analysts from various brokerages are maintaining a high level of attention.
The head of UBS Group's Asia Economic Research and chief economist for China, Wang Tao, expects that the National Two Sessions will focus on "stabilizing growth," emphasizing macro policy support to boost domestic demand, with "boosting consumer spending" listed as an important task.
She predicts that China will increase fiscal expenditure for consumption and households. Specific measures include: doubling the scale of the old-for-new subsidy, establishing a fertility and childcare subsidy plan, raising the basic pension payment levels for urban and rural residents, and increasing governmental financial support for basic social insurance. Additionally, China may continue to strictly control the growth of hidden debts from local financing platforms.
Wang Tao believes that in terms of monetary policy, the tone of "moderate easing" is likely to continue, including explicit requests to reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents, lowering the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments, and promoting a "reasonable rebound" of inflation; the central bank may use various liquidity tools to maintain adequate liquidity.
Nomura China's chief economist, Lu Ting, stated that there are several factors worth noting. On one hand, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew 5.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, significantly surpassing previous forecasts; on the other hand, the explosive growth of DeepSeek has sparked investment enthusiasm in a series of emerging fields such as AI and Cloud Computing. At the same time, the stock market's rebound has demonstrated a certain wealth effect, and the Real Estate sector has performed slightly better than expected.
Lu Ting expects that the central government's fiscal policy may focus on four areas: first, transferring payments to local governments; second, providing financial support for large-scale equipment renewal plans and old-for-new consumption plans; third, supporting the Real Estate industry through land buybacks or helping developers complete pre-sold houses; fourth, providing financial support for low-income families while ensuring funding for encouraging childbirth.
By conducting a word frequency analysis of the key work focuses in government reports for 2025, the chief economist of Southwest Securities, Ye Fan, found that terms related to technological innovation such as "innovation," "Technology," and "modernization" appeared frequently, followed by keywords such as "green," "ecology," "Consumer," "tourism," and "Retirement." In terms of industry models, the likelihood of mentioning the sharing economy and AI+ at the National Two Sessions is relatively high.
He stated that the implementation of the sharing economy in diverse consumer scenarios, service consumption, and cultural tourism is a key direction for tapping into consumption potential. The emergence of DeepSeek is expected to trigger a surge in demand for AI applications, with the core AI industry's scale in China projected to exceed 1.73 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for more than 30% of the global total. Additionally, 2025 marks the sprint and conclusion year for the deepening and enhancement actions of State-owned Enterprise Reform.mergers and acquisitions.Restructuring is expected to continue to accelerate, with a focus on Technology, Energy, Agriculture, Finance, and Logistics.
Zhang Hao, head of the macro group at Debon Securities Research Institute, stated that the National Two Sessions are about to be held, with local two sessions, collective research, and collective learning serving as important forward-looking signals. It is expected that the National Two Sessions will focus on three aspects: the economic growth target may remain at 5%, boosting Consumer spending is a top priority, and the coordination of fiscal, monetary, and various Industry, regional, and Eco-friendly Concept policies to support broad fiscal expansion is key to policy implementation.
He suggested paying attention to the important driving role of system and mechanism reform, unifying the national large market, promoting high-quality development of the private economy, deepening State-owned Enterprise Reform, and improving the Consumer and business environment as four key directions. "In 2025, the industrial themes will focus on five major areas: AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, Infrastructure expansion overseas, and Food Safety."
Editor/Somer
