The five major public fund chief foresees the two sessions! Focus on stimulating private sectors, promoting Consumer, and strengthening Technology in three major directions.

Source: Brokerage China
Reporters: Peili Rui, Wu Qi, An Zhongwen, Yu Shipeng, Zhao Mengqiao

Recently, reporters from Brokerage China interviewed chief economists Han Xianwang from Huatai-PB Fund, Li Zhan from CCB Fund's research department, Wei Fengchun from China Universal Asset Management, Zhu Guoqing, deputy general manager and chief investment officer of Pengyang Fund, and Qiao Peitao, administrative head and fund manager of Founder Fubon Equity Research Department, about investment opportunities in the upcoming two sessions.

Interviewees generally believe that this year's two sessions can focus on three major directions: "revitalizing the private sector", "promoting consumption", and "strengthening technology". The policy line may focus on areas such as "service-oriented consumption" in people's livelihoods and new productivity fields like "AI+", guiding capital toward improvements in people's livelihoods and technological innovation. At the same time, capital market reforms are steadily advancing, and policies are guiding medium- to long-term funds into the market to enhance the sustainability of financial services for the real economy, providing stronger support for economic transformation and industrial upgrades.

Han Xianwang from Huatai-PB Fund: Supporting technological innovation, policies for the private economy may become a highlight.

In an interview with reporters from Brokerage China, chief economist Han Xianwang of Huatai-PB Fund pointed out that against the backdrop of positive signals from local two sessions and the tone set at high-level symposiums, targeted promotion of the private economy and support for technological innovation may become the core topics of this year's two sessions. Meanwhile, capital market reforms are steadily advancing, with medium- to long-term funds entering the market which enhances the sustainability of financial services for the real economy, providing stronger support for economic transformation and industrial upgrades.

Han Xianwang believes that the targeted promotion of private economic development may be an important theme of this two sessions. On one hand, from the provincial two sessions held in January, more than ten provinces proposed "promoting the development and expansion of the private economy" or stimulating the vitality of various entities in their government work reports, indicating that the local two sessions can serve as a precursor signal for the national two sessions. On the other hand, on February 17, the general secretary attended a symposium on private enterprises and delivered an important speech, indicating that high-level meetings may suggest that policies regarding the private economy could become highlights in 2025.

Specifically, Han Xianwang predicts that the following three types of pragmatic policies may become the focus:

The first category is strengthening policy and institutional guarantees, with the expectation that three aspects of institutional construction will accelerate implementation. First, accelerating legislation, the "Private Economy Promotion Law" will be implemented quickly, filling the gaps in specialized legislation in key areas of property rights protection and fair competition that private enterprises are concerned about. Second, optimizing market access, revising the new version of the negative list for market access, promoting the opening of monopolistic areas like Energy and Communications to private enterprises, and implementing the principle of "not prohibited means allowed". Third, financing support systems will alleviate financing difficulties through special Crediting, pilot Bond financing tools, and relief funds, encouraging Banks to increase the proportion of first loans and credit loans for private enterprises.

The second category is policies to improve the business environment, focusing on two issues. First, regulatory enforcement, concentrating on rectifying behaviors like arbitrary fees and fines, preventing the recurrence of 'distant ocean fishing' issues seen in the second half of last year. Second, addressing issues of delayed payment to private enterprises, which has been a focus of private enterprise policies in recent years, local governments must fulfill territorial responsibilities and leverage new special local government bonds to accelerate the repayment of debts owed to enterprises to the greatest extent possible. State-owned enterprises are also expected to continue taking the lead in settling debts, ensuring that payments to small and medium-sized enterprises are made swiftly and fully.

The third category is policies supporting innovation and transformation. For example, supporting and encouraging private enterprises to participate in major national Technology projects and supporting private enterprises in participating in green transformation, providing certain fiscal and financial policy support for companies that align with policy directions.

It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, the wave of AI represented by DeepSeek has swept the Global scene, bringing vigorous vitality to various industries. Han Xianwang predicts that support for technological innovation will also be an important highlight of this year's Two Sessions, particularly in areas like computing power infrastructure, embodied intelligent humanoid robots, and 'AI+manufacturing', which may become the key supported policy directions.

First, computing power infrastructure, policies may support domestic AI large models (such as DeepSeek) penetrating industries, promoting the construction of computing power centers and the circulation of CNI Data Factor Index, for instance, the government work report of Zhejiang Province this year proposed to 'orderly implement foundational projects of large models, Big Data, and computing power'.

Second, industry integration, policies may focus on vertical fields like 'AI+manufacturing' and 'AI+medical', encouraging enterprises to apply actively. For example, the government work report of Shanghai City this year proposed 'focusing on industrial intelligence, accelerating the large-scale application of the Industrial Internet'. Another signal of industry integration is the recent centralized deployments by the central government regarding AI-related consumption, such as the proposal made at the State Council regular meeting on February 10 to 'promote AI+consumption' and the twelfth special study on February 20 emphasizing 'releasing the consumption potential of AI terminal products'.

Third, embodied intelligent humanoid robots, representative companies of humanoid robots made two appearances at this year's Spring Festival Gala and a meeting with private enterprises and are expected to be mentioned as one of the key areas of scientific and technological innovation in the Two Sessions.

Finally, Han Xianwang is also full of expectations for the capital market policies of the two sessions. Han Xianwang believes that the relevant statements from last December's Central Economic Work Conference can serve as a preview. The economic work conference pointed out, "Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, unblock the card points and bottlenecks for mid- to long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system."

According to this statement, Han Xianwang expects that this year's two sessions may focus on three directions regarding capital market policies: first, balancing the investment and financing functions of the capital market, promoting the formation of a good cycle for investment and financing; second, promoting mid- to long-term funds entering the market, with related implementation plans having already been released in January; the two sessions are expected to emphasize their execution and implementation again; third, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, which should accept different types of enterprises and further support high-quality technology companies in going public, while also being able to adapt to changes in new business formats and new industries.

CITIC Fund's Li Zhan: Focus on "promoting consumption" and "AI+"; the stock market is expected to rise further along with profit growth.

Li Zhan, the chief economist of the research department at CITIC Fund, stated in an exclusive interview with a reporter from Securities China that this year's two sessions will pay more attention to the setting of the annual economic growth target, the intensity of fiscal policy, the monetary policy tone, and other topics. In addition, topics related to industrial policies in the AI technology field and the development direction of the capital market are also worth paying attention to.

He expects that the policy's main line may focus on areas concerning "promoting consumption" and other livelihood areas as well as new productivity fields like "AI+", guiding capital to tilt towards improving livelihoods and technological innovation. Under a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy environment, there is still room for reserve requirement and interest rate cuts.

During the two sessions, which topics are receiving attention and have a significant impact on the capital market? Li Zhan told reporters that

First, the economic growth target and inflation expectations. The national GDP growth target and CPI target are worth paying attention to. If the targets are achieved or exceed expectations, it may boost market confidence, especially in relation to consumption and infrastructure sectors closely tied to domestic demand.

Second, the direction of increased fiscal policy. The deficit rate, scale of special bonds, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected increments that will be bullish for new infrastructure, urban village renovations, and technological innovation sectors. Additionally, the special bonds for land reserves may become a field with significant marginal changes, while structural policies in real estate may bring localized investment opportunities.

Third, the policy tone and tools. The monetary policy tone is "moderately loose," focusing on whether liquidity shifts from "reasonably abundant" to "abundant," and whether the amount or scope of swap convenience operations is further expanded, etc. The loose monetary environment has provided a driving effect on the Capital Markets from both liquidity and risk preference perspectives.

Fourth, new productive forces and State-owned Enterprise Reform. Firstly, AI, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, etc. have been repeatedly mentioned, and policy support may be further increased, which is Bullish for the Technology Sector; secondly, the State-owned Enterprise Reform, 2025 is the final year for deepening and enhancing actions in State-owned Enterprise Reform, and related reform measures may be accelerated, potentially bringing structural investment opportunities in the State-owned Enterprise Reform concept Sector.

Fifth, the policy of "upgrading old consumer goods" has been intensified, and the all-around expansion of domestic demand ranks first among the nine major tasks for 2025, with timely and moderate progress in income distribution reform, directly or indirectly boosting the Consumer Sector.

China's Capital Markets system, structure, and institutional mechanisms are continuously improving. What measures on the policy side are worth paying attention to? Li Zhan believes:

First, the introduction of medium and long-term funds and investment-side reform. Promote the establishment of a policy environment conducive to the market entry of medium and long-term funds, strengthening "patient capital." It is necessary to further relax the proportion and scope of long-term funds entering the market, while improving the long-cycle assessment mechanism for institutional investors and strengthening long-term performance orientation.

Second, the investor rights protection mechanism. Further improve relevant laws and regulations for the protection of small and medium investors, granting them greater information rights and participation rights in corporate governance, and accelerating the establishment of a diversified dispute resolution mechanism and civil compensation litigation system.

Third,Algo trading.Regulatory measures on securities lending. Issued the 'Regulations on the Management of Program Trading in the Securities Market' to standardize high-frequency algo trading; halt the expansion of Become Margin scale, and restrict 'disguised T+0' arbitrage.

Fourth, support Venture Capital and technology enterprises in financing. The State Council issued 'Several Policy Measures to Promote High-quality Development of Venture Capital' to encourage social capital to establishmergers and acquisitions.fund of funds, promote the participation of multi-tiered funds from Banks, Insurance, and social security in Venture Capital, and reform the entire chain of entrepreneurial investment.

Fifth, coordination of investment and financing and optimization of basic systems. Improve the pricing mechanism for new stock issuances, optimize the merger and acquisition system (such as relaxing restrictions on industry competition and simplifying performance commitment requirements), and promote industrial integration and the development of new productivity.

Sixth, increase constraints on the incentive for listed companies' dividends and buybacks. The 'Opinions on Strengthening Regulation of Listed Companies (Trial)' and the new 'Nine National Policies' both clearly state the need to enhance the stability, continuity, and predictability of dividends, promoting multiple dividends within a year. In addition, policies for Share Buyback and increasing refinancing are also continuously encouraging active participation from all market players.

Since the beginning of the year, the technology sector has been bustling with activity, with various cutting-edge results continuously emerging, and the Capital Markets have sparked a wave of interest in technology stocks. Technological innovation is also an important topic discussed during each annual session of the Two Sessions.

In the field of technological innovation, ****ggested, first, to establish a fund of funds for future industries, encourage social capital to participate in early-stage investments, and actively explore the 'research institution + enterprise' joint attack mode, focusing on nurturing a modern industrial system.

Second, increase the inclusiveness of Refinancing packages for unprofitable hard technology companies (such as AI Chips and Biomedical), relax the valuation limits for mergers and acquisitions; pilot a "spin-off listing green channel" to support technology giants in separating innovative businesses to independently list on the Star board.

Third, expand the equity investment ratio of social security funds and insurance funds in hard technology companies, and relax the restrictions on pension investments in the Star board; promote QFLP (Qualified Foreign Limited Partner) participation in Venture Capital funds, attracting international patient capital. In addition, pilot the securitization of intellectual property for technology companies, develop 'R&D insurance' products to hedge against technology failure risks, and promote innovation in risk mitigation tools.

The policy outlook is positive, and the capital markets are steadily progressing. Li Zhan stated that the stock market is currently in the mid-stage of a re-evaluation recovery; technology and the Internet are the core areas for this round of market re-evaluation and rise, but assets that are strongly correlated with the Chinese economy are still at relatively low levels, leading to the A-share market's profit growth not yet catching up, indicating that the stock market is expected to follow profit growth with further increases in the medium to long term.

Against the backdrop of more proactive fiscal policies and a loosening of monetary policy, Li Zhan believes that one of the biggest investment lines in 2025 is technology, with a focus on stable dividend directions also deserving attention. On one hand, the technology sector will focus on AI+, paying special attention to industries like computing power and edge applications (robots, cars, etc.); on the other hand, attention will be given to investment opportunities arising from domestic demand recovery driven by policies, especially when domestic AI valuation is relatively high, as pro-cyclical industries' valuation advantages become apparent, such as industries in the consumer and Real Estate sectors that are temporarily at the bottom.

Weifeng Chun from Chuangjin Hexin Fund: Service consumption has become a new highlight for investment this year, and there are still opportunities to get involved after missing out on technology stocks.

Weifeng Chun, chief economist of Chuangjin Hexin Fund, stated in an interview with Securities China that the expectation is that the economic fundamentals will further repair this year, and the proportion of service consumption in total consumption continues to rise, prompting service consumption to potentially become a new bright spot for investment in 2025. For some public fund managers and investors who missed the wealth effects of technology stocks, considering refining what is useful and achieving results, the evolution of wealth effects in technology stocks still leaves opportunities and space for re-entry and seizing transformation opportunities.

Weifeng Chun told Securities China that this year, expectations for the direction of monetary policy, economic development plans, and investment opportunities in capital markets are of great concern. In terms of monetary policy, it is expected to continue with a tone of 'moderately loose.' The monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2024 will upgrade the liquidity target from 'reasonably abundant' to 'abundant,' and make it clear that various tools such as interest rates and reserve requirements will be used comprehensively. Considering the gradual recovery of the current economic fundamentals, large-scale monetary operations like cuts in reserve ratios and interest rates may not happen in the short term, but policy space still exists and may be implemented after the two sessions until the second quarter.

He believes that internally, the central bank will fully leverage its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, support small and medium-sized banks in managing risks, and continue to provide liquidity reserves for resolving the debt risks of local government financing platforms. Externally, uncertainties brought by Trump's trade have caused fluctuations in the global economy and financial markets. China’s monetary policy needs to maintain flexibility and foresight, stabilize expectations for exchange rates, and reduce external risks to the domestic economy and financial market.

魏凤春进一步分析称，经济社会发展上，2025年是 “十四五” 规划收官之年，预计GDP增速目标为5% 左右，CPI增速目标约为2%。宏观政策需更加积极，财政政策上，赤字率或提高至4% 左右，新增专项债规模或增加，超长期特别国债规模也将扩大，以此全方位扩大内需，促进消费与投资。对内改革与对外开放持续推进。对内深化改革，优化营商环境，激发民营经济活力，推动产业升级；对外开放拓展经贸合作，参与全球经济治理，推动 “一带一路” 高质量发展，吸引外资，提升我国在全球产业链中的地位。

宏观经济变化反映到公募基金的赛道仓位选股决策上，魏凤春告诉记者，在资本市场投资机会方面，2025年的服务消费升级领域值得关注，随着居民收入增长和消费观念转变，服务消费在总消费中的比重不断提升。从餐饮、旅游、文化娱乐等传统服务消费，到健康、养老、家政等新兴服务消费，各类服务消费领域均展现出蓬勃发展的势头。例如，广东发布《广东省促进服务消费高质量发展若干措施》，涵盖餐饮住宿、家政服务、养老托育等领域，通过丰富文娱消费场景、培育壮大旅游消费等举措，满足民众个性化、多样化、品质化服务消费需求。在政策推动下，相关行业的优质企业有望迎来发展机遇。

以人工智能为代表的硬科技及其应用领域同样潜力巨大。在国产AI产业趋势下，科技板块可重点关注国产算力链、AI应用以及端侧AI。AI与消费行业融合趋势下，AI +消费成为科技消费主线。在消费电子领域，AI技术在智能手机和智能物联网方向的应用，提升产品智能化水平，刺激消费需求增长，蕴藏投资机会。两会将为经济发展指明方向，投资者应密切关注两会动态，把握政策导向，在服务消费升级、硬科技等领域挖掘投资机会，实现资产合理配置与增值。

“随着科技成长的财富效应出现，有一批踏空的投资者开始坐不住了。如此慌张其实大可不必，大家还有充足的时间进行抉择。”魏凤春强调，首先，去粗取精是成长必经的路线。其次，政策也会呵护真正的成长。2月21日，最高检与中国证监会联合召开“依法从严打击证券违法犯罪 促进资本市场健康稳定发展”新闻发布会，就是明确的信号，健康的科技成长才是众望所归的，随着上市公司业绩的公布，中国开年数据的展示，微观和宏观的双向验证都给科技股的定价带来考验。经受过考验的公司将会被划分到主导产业——龙头公司的行列，成为未来价值投资的蓝海。经受不了考验的公司，大概率会进行剧烈的调整，这是成长的烦恼，未来的仓位配置机会时点和机会依然充分。

鹏扬基金朱国庆：期待惠民生和促消费有政策落地，对中国资产充满期待

鹏扬基金副总经理、股票首席投资官朱国庆在接受券商中国记者专访时表示，2025年两会期待在惠民生和促消费方面能有财政支持政策落地，还期待在促进消费方面有中长期的政策出台。这些政策措施能够提升居民消费信心，对内需消费会起到中长期促进作用。

朱国庆表示，2025年经济增速如果能够稳住，对股票投资会迎来一个友好环境，行业和企业层面能够走出“内卷式”恶性价格竞争，改善盈利能力和提升ROE水平。对2025年乃至更长周期的中国资产表现充满期待，沿着人工智能、经济复苏和企业盈利能力修复两大主线进行投资布局。

朱国庆表示，每年两会都是资本市场关注的重点，2025年尤其期待在惠民生和促消费方面能有财政支持政策落地。除了已经落实的以消费品旧换新政策之外，还期待在促进消费方面有中长期的政策出台，比如生育补贴、对养老和社保的支持性措施等，这些政策措施能够提升居民消费信心，对内需消费会起到中长期促进作用。“今年经济增速如果能够稳住，对股票市场投资而言就是一个友好的环境，关键还是行业和企业层面能够走出“内卷式”恶性价格竞争，改善盈利能力和提升ROE水平，这些发展质量指标比经济增长指标的提升更加重要。”

We are filled with expectations for the performance of Chinese assets in 2025 and even beyond. Zhu Guoqing stated that with policy adjustments and breakthrough achievements in China’s Technology sector, investors are regaining confidence, and last year's 924 market might just be the starting point of a transition. The application of AI can be compared to the popularization of the Internet in the early 21st century, as it will have a broad and profound impact on all aspects of politics, economy, military, and everyday life, and future investment opportunities will surely stem from it, making it a significant investment direction that cannot be ignored for a long period. However, as current performance cannot be immediately seen, market performance appears like Thematic Investment, with a need to focus on those investment symbols that can maintain robust performance even after the noise subsides, and have a confirmed long-term outlook.

Another core theme remains the economic recovery and the restoration of corporate profitability. It is necessary to continuously observe which industries and enterprises can gradually emerge from vicious price competition, allowing profitability to be restored. Although it takes time, this is a highly probable event that will occur in the near future, and the restoration of corporate profitability is the basis for Chinese assets to truly break out into a significant market trend. We are filled with expectations and have strong confidence in this.

Zhu Guoqing also mentioned that DeepSeek has greatly enhanced confidence in China's technological innovation capabilities. In the field of AI applications, the combination of technological innovation and China’s manufacturing prowess suggests that China may likely take a globally leading position in applications. AI applications involve all aspects of our production and life, with breakthroughs in tech products from 0 to 1 being particularly notable, such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving, which are two disruptive applications that can change the world. In the Consumer Electronics sector, comparatively smaller innovative products like AI glasses may also emerge.

A broader application is the empowerment of various industries through AI, including its application in sectors such as Industry, Biotechnology, Military Industry, Services, and Consumer Electronics. The application of AI can significantly enhance our production efficiency, R&D efficiency, and service efficiency, greatly increasing labor productivity and creating new consumer scenarios. Many applications are still in the early exploratory stage, and results will gradually be showcased. When it comes to investment, opportunities will arise from capital expenditures related to AI and from the actual application scenarios of AI, which will be an ongoing process. Thus, we say this is a mid-to-long-term investment direction that cannot be overlooked.

Fangzheng Fubang's Qiao Peitao expressed hope that more "Six Little Dragons" would emerge across the vast land of China.

Qiao Peitao, the head of the administrative department of Fangzheng Fubang's Equity Research Division and Fund Manager, believes that the private economy is a crucial component of China's economic structure, especially in a new phase where innovation-driven development is the core driving force. The private economy, characterized by its flexibility, willingness to break through, and ease of innovation, has become one of the sources of innovation. Since the beginning of this year, the private economy, represented by DeepSeek and Yushu Robot, has added color to China's innovation, while private chip enterprises led by Huawei have become essential components in breaking the overseas tech blockade.

However, it is undeniable that private enterprises encounter various problems and difficulties in their development, such as unfair treatment, barriers to entry, etc., and sometimes the prejudices in people's hearts are like a mountain. Qiao Peitao stated that the development of private enterprises requires a more stable and harmonious development environment. Where the development environment is better, private enterprises will migrate like migratory birds. Previously, the competitive招商引资 by local governments will gradually shift to "building nests to attract phoenixes" and "inviting technology to inspire innovation". Therefore, it is anticipated that more "convenient measures" will be introduced by local governments during this year's Two Sessions, with more initiatives like "Zheli Ban" being launched to create a better development environment for the private economy.

Generally speaking, the A-share market exhibits a significant "Calendar Effect" around the Two Sessions, mainly because investors have heightened expectations for the policies discussed, and there tends to be some thematic market trends related to proposals, coinciding with the reporting vacuum period for annual performance results, providing opportunities for capital speculation.

I feel that this year's two sessions calendar effect will be relatively weakened. According to Qiao Peitao, first, investors' expectations for macro policies during the two sessions are not high this year, especially regarding further fiscal stimulus policies. Secondly, the market has formed a strong development expectation for 'new technologies', which comes more from the industry's own development trends rather than policy guidance, resulting in a lower sensitivity to policy themes compared to previous years. Thirdly, most companies that faced performance crises disclosed their earnings forecasts in January this year. Investors have certain psychological expectations for performance, and the probability of systemic risks arising from performance crises is relatively low.

Regardless of whether it is before or after the two sessions, I believe the investment opportunities still come from 'new technologies'. The technical route of Deepseek has already indicated a path to significantly reduce AI application costs. AI+ will rapidly diffuse into various industries, creating a new phase where 'everything can be AI'. Embracing AI will become the core development direction for the next five years, Qiao Peitao stated.

Qiao Peitao believes that the Capital Markets are a barometer of economic development and comprehensive national strength. After the Spring Festival, the Capital Markets increasingly present a trend of 'Eastern rise and Western decline', especially the 'new technology' sector has seen significant gains. 'Reevaluation of Chinese Assets' has become a hot topic, reflecting our new productive forces' rapid development. 'As we continue to advance in technology, constantly break through overseas technology blockades, and lead global innovation into uncharted territories in more fields, I believe our Capital Markets will also perform better. On the other hand, the Capital Markets are also an important part of supporting technological development. The management expressed their emphasis on the Capital Markets last year and believe that more favorable new measures for the development of technology enterprises will be introduced,' Qiao Peitao forecasted.

Specifically regarding policy guidance, this year's two sessions will see Qiao Peitao focusing more on what new measures the government has to support the development of new productive forces. Over the past twenty years, Real Estate and the infrastructure and urban investment driven by Real Estate have become the core engines for driving economic development. Qiao Peitao believes that as urbanization rates have risen to a high level and the total population starts to decline, the shift from 'pan-real estate' to 'pan-high-tech' will become the crucial variable for driving economic development in the next twenty years, whereas the operational style of the government, especially local governments, still largely remains in the last phase's thinking paradigm. In the future, it will also change with the development of productivity. The remarkable performance of Hangzhou's 'Six Little Dragons' since the Spring Festival indicates which regions are transforming quickly; those places will reap rewards sooner. It is hoped that more 'Hanzhous' and more 'Six Little Dragons' will emerge across the great land of China.

Editor/Somer