Signs of economic cooling in the USA are increasing, with enhanced signals of stagflation. The job market is slowing, with last week's initial unemployment claims reported at 0.242 million, the highest since early December last year. The real estate market is under pressure from high prices and high interest rates; following poor sales of new and second-hand homes, the number of homes for sale in January fell by 4.6% month-on-month to a historical low. From egg prices to real estate, inflation in the USA is heating up again, with the PCE inflation data revised up to 2.7%.

However, the actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revision for the fourth quarter of 2.3% met expectations. Driven by a surge in aircraft orders, durable goods orders in January increased 3.1% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since July of last year. On Friday, the market will focus on the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, with the market generally expecting a month-on-month rise to 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), while year-on-year may drop to 2.6% (previous value 2.8%).

On the Federal Reserve side, this year's voting members, Kansas Federal Reserve President Esther George, are more cautious about inflation, warning that the current inflation risks in the USA coexist with concerns about economic growth, and the Federal Reserve may have to seek a balance between the two. Next year's voting member, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Harker, continues to show a hawkish stance, believing that the current interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve may be close to a neutral level.

Trump intensifies tariff threats, the US dollar rises sharply, and G10 currencies face collective pressure.safe-haven assetRelative resilience. On Thursday, the Trump administration confirmed a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and other goods, with tariffs on Mexico and Canada set to take effect on March 4. This announcement further depressed investment sentiment, causing the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, euro, and Europe ETF to drop. The French finance minister stated that if the USA increases tariffs, the EU will respond with the same measures.

NVIDIA's earnings report was not impressive enough, combined with the impact of Trump's tariffs and increasing concerns about the cooling of the US economy, the tech sector in the US stock market led the declines, with NVIDIA falling sharply by 8.48%, bringing its market cap below 3 trillion USD, and the chip index dropped over 6%. The China Concept Index erased an earlier drop of 2.1% and even turned positive for a time, but ultimately still fell by 0.93%.

• All three major U.S. stock indices fell. The S&P 500 Index closed down 1.59%. The Dow, closely tied to the economic cycle, closed down 0.45%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 2.78%. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 2.75%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed down 3.81%. The Russell 2000 small cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed down 1.59%. The fear index VIX rose 10.79% to 21.16.

• Most industry ETFs in the U.S. stock market fell. The Semiconductor ETF closed down 6.16%, the Global Tech Stocks Index ETF fell 3.88%, the Technology Sector ETF fell 3.64%, the Internet Stock Index ETF fell 2.23%, and the Consumer Discretionary ETF fell 1.44%. The Regional Banks ETF, Banks ETF, Energy Sector ETF, and Financial Sector ETF rose between 0.15% and 0.55%.

• Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 Index, the Information Technology/Technology sector fell 3.79%, the Utilities sector fell 2.23%, the Telecom and Consumer Discretionary sectors fell about 1.8%, the Energy sector rose less than 0.5%, and the Financial sector rose less than 0.6%.

• In terms of investment research strategy, signs of a cooling trend have appeared in the Wall Street AI boom. The Chinese company DeepSeek launched a low-cost AI model, affecting market sentiment; furthermore, this week analyst reports suggested that Microsoft might cancel some datacenter leases, raising concerns about AI overcapacity. These factors led investors to adjust their valuation expectations for AI companies, causing the market's attitude towards tech stocks to turn cautious.

• The "Seven Tech Sisters" suffered significant losses. NVIDIA closed down 8.48%, marking the worst single-day performance since the DeepSeek shockwave in January. Tesla fell 3.04%, and Alphabet A dropped 2.45%. Microsoft dropped 1.8%. Amazon fell 2.62%, reporting that after Microsoft, Amazon also officially announced its quantum computing chip, with breakthroughs that can reduce error correction costs by up to 90%. Meta dropped 2.29%, reporting that it is in talks with private equity firm Apollo for $35 billion in datacenter financing. Meta plans to release a standalone Meta AI app in the second quarter, hoping to compete with OpenAI's ChatGPT. Apple fell 1.27%, reporting that Apple's first folding screen phone may be released in the second half of 2026.

• Chip stocks generally fell. The PHLX Semiconductor Index closed down 6.09%. The NVIDIA two-times leveraged ETF fell 17.14%. Intel closed down 1.83%. Nawei Semiconductor dropped 8.46%, Wolfspeed fell 3.91%, Micron Technology dropped 6.03%, Broadcom fell 7.11%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR dropped 6.95%, and Qualcomm fell 4.73%.

• AI concept stocks generally fell. Super Micro Computer closed down 15.97%. Oracle fell 4.47%. Dell Technologies dropped 6.76%, briefly rising 4.79% after hours. BullFrog AI fell 5.34%, Palantir dropped 5.08%, AppLovin fell 3.18%. Snowflake closed up 4.51%. Salesforce fell 4.04%.

• Most Chinese concept stocks fell. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.93%. Among ETFs, the FTSE China 3X Long ETF (YINN) closed down 2.85%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed down 2.09%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) fell 1.45%, the "China Dragon" DRAG closed down 0.54%, while the FTSE China 3X Short ETF (YANG) closed up 3.04%. The FTSE A50 futures index closed down 0.30% in the consecutive night session, at 13,360.000 points.

• Among the popular China Concept Stocks, Kingsoft Cloud fell by 13.03%, 21Vianet dropped by 7.53%, EHang fell by 6.34%, GDS Holdings declined by 5.34%, Canadian Solar decreased by 4.68%, WeRide dropped by 15.04%, ZEEKR increased by 4.33%, NIO rose by 1.48%, XPeng increased by 1.23%, JD.com grew by 0.02%, while Alibaba fell by 1.82%, Fangdd Network decreased by 7.67%, Li Auto dropped by 3.02%, and Baidu declined by 1.01%. Reports indicate that Baidu will launch an upgraded AI model in mid-March. Xiaomi Group's ADR fell by 0.28%. At the Xiaomi product launch, the price of the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra was set at 0.5299 million yuan, and the Xiaomi Phone 15 Ultra starts at 6499 yuan.

• Among other key stocks: BEIGENE rose by 7.48%, with 2024 revenue expected to grow by 56.2%, and global R&D accelerating. Toyota increased by 0.59%, marking its first production growth in a year, with domestic production in Japan surging by 22%. Beyond Meat fell by 10.67%, accumulating a decline of over 20% in the last five trading days, as the company announced a layoff of about 6%. In recent days, global consumer companies have consecutively announced cost-cutting plans. Reports state that Elon Musk's Tesla plans to launch FSD taxi service in California, with Uber Technologies down by 2.19% and Lyft's increase narrowing to 1.56%. Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, led by Buffett, rose by 1.68%, closing above the psychological threshold of $500 for the first time in history, setting a new closing record after just one trading day.

Trump has once again threatened to impose a 25% tariff on the EU, raising market concerns. European stocks dropped broadly on Thursday, with the European automotive sector, highly sensitive to global trade, plunging 4%. Analysts state that if Trump's tariff threat materializes, it could severely impact European automakers, especially large manufacturers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler that export to the USA.

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.46%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index decreased by 1.00%. The FTSE Pan-European 300 index dropped by 0.40%.

• The German DAX 30 index dropped by 1.07%. The France CAC 40 index decreased by 0.51%. The Italy FTSE MIB index fell by 1.53%. The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.28%. The Spain IBEX 35 index declined by 0.46%.

• Highlighting stocks:

Ferrari fell by 7.91%, after the Agnelli family's holding company Exor announced the sale of about 4% of its shares.

Aerospace & Defense company Rolls-Royce rose by 15.94%, as the company raised its mid-term targets in its annual performance, recording higher revenues and profits, and restoring shareholder dividends.

UK building materials supplier Howden Joinery fell over 6%, despite announcing a new £0.1 billion (approximately $0.1267 billion) share buyback plan, due to slightly lower than expected annual revenue.

The threat of Trump's tariffs resurfaces, as the US Treasury market ended its recent gains on Thursday, with medium and long-term bond yields rising. The 3-month 10-year Treasury bond once again shows an inversion, and the yield curve is signaling stagflation. Sovereign bond yields in several Eurozone countries climbed, with the 2-year German bond yield falling more than 3 basis points.

• US Bonds: The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond rose by 1.90 basis points to 4.2752%, refreshing the daily low when US durable goods orders, GDP, and weekly job reports were released at 21:30 Beijing time. The 2-year US bond yield fell by 0.62 basis points, hitting a daily low of 4.0655%.

• European Bonds: At the end of the European session, the yield on the German 10-year Treasury bond fell by 2.0 basis points to 2.413%. The 2-year German bond yield dropped by 3.3 basis points. The UK 10-year Treasury bond yield rose by 0.9 basis points. The 2-year UK bond yield increased by 0.4 basis points. The yield on France's 10-year Treasury bond declined by 0.9 basis points, while the Italy 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield remained roughly flat.

With the tariff schedule clarified, the dollar rose over 0.7%, putting pressure on G10 currencies. The euro fell over 0.8% for two consecutive days, and the yen dropped about 0.5%, briefly falling below 150. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar both declined by around 1.1%.

• Dollar: At the end of the New York session, the ICE Dollar Index rose by 0.73% to 107.195 points. The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.61% to 1294.19 points.

• Non-US Currencies: At the end of the New York session, the euro fell by 0.84% against the dollar, trading at 1.0398. The British Pound fell by 0.59% against the dollar. The dollar rose by 0.55% against the Swiss Franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian Dollar fell by 1.10% against the dollar, the New Zealand Dollar declined by 1.09%, and the dollar rose by 0.72% against the Canadian Dollar.

• Yen: At the end of the New York session, the dollar rose by 0.47% against the yen, trading at 149.80 yen, fluctuating upward throughout the day, trading in the range of 148.75-150.16 yen. Japan's Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if bond yields rise rapidly, the central bank will conduct unscheduled bond operations.

• Offshore Renminbi: The offshore Renminbi (CNH) fell 357 points against the US Dollar at the close, reported at 7.3010 yuan, trading overall in the Range of 7.2623-7.2798 yuan during the day.

• Cryptos: The largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose 0.04% at the close, reported at 84,320.00 US Dollars. The second largest Ethereum fell 2.27% at the close, reported at 2,277.00 US Dollars.

Affected by Trump's tariff news and OPEC+ production policies, the crude oil market strengthened on Thursday and closed at a high, with US oil rising over 2.5%, back above 70 US Dollars:

• US Oil: WTI April crude oil futures closed up 1.73 US Dollars, an increase of 2.52%, reported at 70.35 US Dollars per barrel.

• Brent Oil: Brent April crude oil futures closed up 1.51 US Dollars, an increase of 2.08%, reported at 74.04 US Dollars per barrel.

• Due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs and sanctions by the US and Western countries on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ is cautious about the planned production increase in April. Sources say that Russia and the UAE hope to increase oil production in April as planned, but Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries prefer to delay the increase. Some Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, expect OPEC+ may postpone the April production increase plan again, with some even anticipating a delay until the second half of 2025.

• Natural Gas: US April natural gas futures fell 0.63%, reported at 3.9340 US Dollars per million British thermal units. In the European market at the close, TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 8.70%, reported at 45.000 Euros per megawatt-hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 8.05%, reported at 106.730 pence per kilocalorie.

A strong US Dollar puts pressure on Gold, with New York gold futures falling about 1.5%, briefly dipping below 2,880 US Dollars. Boosted by a surge in Orders, nickel prices rose for the second day in a row, while cobalt rose for the third consecutive day:

• Gold: COMEX Gold Futures fell by 1.48%, reporting at $2887.30 per ounce. Spot gold fell by 1.34% at the end of the day, reporting at $2877.24 per ounce, with a downward fluctuation throughout the day.

• Silver: COMEX Silver Futures May contract fell by 2.24%, reporting at $31.845 per ounce. Spot silver fell by 1.86% at the end of the day, reporting at $31.2630 per ounce.

• London Industrial Metals showed mixed results. London Nickel rose by over 1%, while London Tin fell by over 2%: London Copper fell by $70, reporting at $9390 per ton. COMEX Copper Futures May contract rose by 0.17%, reporting at $4.5945 per pound. London Aluminum steadied, reporting at $2632 per ton. London Zinc fell by $3, reporting at $2809 per ton. London Lead fell by $4, reporting at $2007 per ton. London Nickel rose by $252, reporting at $15832 per ton. London Tin fell by $700, reporting at $31704 per ton. London Cobalt rose by $150, reporting at $23030 per ton, marking its third consecutive trading day of gains.

编辑/jayden