IEA在报告中将2025年全球石油需求增长的预期提高至110万桶/日，并下调了包括俄罗斯和伊朗在内、欧佩克+国家的产量预期，因为美国加大了对这两国的经济压力。The International Energy Agency has lowered its 2025 Global Crude Oil Product surplus expectation to 0.45 million barrels per day, a reduction of about 50%, due to increased demand in Asia and the impact of sanctions on OPEC+ member countries.
On February 13, according to Financial Associated Press (editor Zhao Hao), the International Energy Agency (IEA) has again lowered its forecast for this year's Global Oil & Gas surplus against the backdrop of strong growth in Asian demand and sanctions on OPEC+ countries.
Local time on Thursday, February 13, the IEA released its monthly oil market report on its official website. The agency now expects that the oil surplus in 2025 will reach 0.45 million barrels per day, a reduction of about 50% compared to two months ago.
In the report, the IEA raised its forecast for Global Oil & Gas demand growth in 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day and lowered the production expectations for OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Iran, as the USA intensified economic pressure on these two countries.
Last month, as the Biden administration took office, it announced a large-scale sanction on the Russian energy sector, targeting large Russian oil and Henry Hub Natural Gas producers, oil Marine Transportation export businesses, oilfield service providers, and oil & gas production projects for export.
Last week, President Trump signed a directive aimed at restoring the 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran. At that time, Trump explained that Iran is 'too close' to acquiring a Nuclear Weapon and that the USA has the right to prevent Iran from selling oil to other countries.
The IEA stated that the new sanctions from the USA disrupted the market and triggered concerns about potential supply interruptions, causing oil prices to rise, with Brent Crude Oil Futures price at one point exceeding $82 per barrel in January. However, the IEA believes the sanctions have not yet had a substantial impact on Global Oil & Gas supply.
Despite Trump's repeated calls for OPEC+ to 'lower oil prices', the IEA believes that OPEC will continue to maintain its current oil production levels and will not increase output. Data from the IEA indicates that if OPEC+ were to increase supply, the Global surplus would significantly increase.
The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for Russia's average production in 2025 from 10.76 million barrels per day a month ago to 10.61 million barrels per day. However, the IEA warns that uncertainties remain regarding sanctions prospects and a series of tariff policies from Trump.
Yesterday, Trump had phone calls with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky in succession. Trump posted on Social Media that he and Putin would send their respective teams to "immediately begin negotiations." Following this news, Brent crude has fallen below $75.
In terms of demand, the IEA stated that China will continue to be the largest driver of demand expansion. Last week, Saudi Aramco increased the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for March deliveries to Asia by $2.40 per barrel, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022.
Editor/ping
