On February 10, Dan Bin's Oriental Harbor Overseas Fund ORIENTALHARBOR INVESTMENT FUND submitted its latest US stock holdings to the USA Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Hold Positions Change

According to the disclosed data, by the end of 2024, the total market value of the Fund's holdings is 0.995 billion USD, a slight increase from 0.969 billion USD in the third quarter. The Oriental Harbor Overseas Fund holds a total of 14 symbols, with the five largest heavy positions being:$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$、 $MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU.US)$ 、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 。

In terms of changes in Hold Positions, Dongfang Harbor Overseas Fund bought 3 new Stocks in the fourth quarter, which are respectively:$Palantir (PLTR.US)$、$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$、 $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ , Increase Holdings$Tesla (TSLA.US)$, Reduce Shareholding $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU.US)$ . In addition, to $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 、 $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 、 $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ 、$Amazon (AMZN.US)$、 $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)$ 、 $Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA.US)$ The Hold Positions remain unchanged.

Throughout 2024, the Oriental Harbor Overseas Fund performed excellently. In the Morgan Hedge one-year hedge fund yield ranking, this fund ranked third with a return of 46.99%. The list includes the performance of 9,956 funds globally with assets over ten million dollars.

Dan Bin warns about AI risks.

In the "Oriental Harbor 2024 Annual Report and Outlook" released in January, Dan Bin believes there are still quite a few investment opportunities amidst the AI wave.

Dan Bin believes that for AI computing power demand, the risks associated with cost reduction of models are secondary contradictions; the widespread adoption of AI applications after cost reduction is the primary contradiction; however, with the widespread adoption of AI applications, AI computing power will fully enter the 'inference era,' and the demand for high-end GPUs may actually increase rather than decrease, which is different from market concerns that 'the simplicity of inference tasks will lead to a decline in demand for high-end GPUs.'

Dan Bin also believes that the demand for pre-training and training computing power has not stopped, and competition may even intensify; B-end Software may be the first to be automated; the path for traditional C-end Software to be automated may be relatively narrow, but native C-end automated applications may emerge endlessly; opportunities for AI applications extend beyond the information industry, with traditional sectors such as Medical, Finance, and Education also presenting worthy investment opportunities.

Dan Bin also took a substantial portion of his outlook to highlight the risks associated with AI.

Dan Bin believes that risks come from expensive market valuations. After two years of increases, the current valuation of the US stock index appears relatively expensive compared to its history over the past 20 years.$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$The dynamic PE valuation for the next 12 months is 27 times.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The dynamic valuation is 22 times, both above average levels, close to the highest point in 20 years. Although he feels optimistic about the AI industry's development trend in 2025, a cautious attitude is warranted regarding the high market valuations. He tends to believe that, driven by current AI technology, economic recovery, and declining interest rates, market valuations may remain high; however, especially in the current unpredictable international environment and the diminishing global liquidity environment due to narrowing yen carry trade spreads, market volatility in 2025 could intensify, and index returns cannot be expected to be as high as in the past two years. Investors may consider increasing their Cash positions, using protective Options, or increasing positions in investments with relatively low valuations and high certainty to prepare for the high volatility market that may arrive at any time, both strategically and mentally.

In addition, market risks also include issues related to the concentration of US stocks, excessive short-term inventory of chips, and other factors.

Editor/rice