On February 10, the Financial Associated Press reported (edited by Liu Rui) that Andrew Swan, head of Asian Stocks at Man Group, the world's largest publicly traded hedge fund company, expressed great optimism about the investment outlook for Chinese Stocks.

On one hand, he believes that the market's concerns about the actual impact of Trump's tariffs on the Chinese economy are limited; on the other hand, he anticipates that China is preparing to implement economic stimulus and significant structural reforms, which will bring strong returns for Chinese enterprises.

The impact of Trump's tariffs will be smaller than eight years ago.

When discussing recent trends in the Chinese stock market, Swan stated,

“The sentiment in the Chinese market is obviously very sluggish, and this has not only been the case recently, but has persisted for some time. I believe investors have overlooked many positive developments,” Swan said, “People seem to have a very poor memory.”

He mentioned that as early as last September, China implemented a package of incremental support policies for the economy. “I believe that by 2025, we will see more policies aimed at supporting the economy being introduced.”

After President Trump took office, his tariffs on China became a key concern for the outside world. However, Swan believes that the impact of Trump's tariffs on China this time will actually be smaller than eight years ago and could potentially be avoided through an agreement.

Currently, economists generally believe that, given the current situation, Trump's trade measures against China have a relatively limited impact on China's economy, even for those industries that heavily rely on exports.

Because during Trump's first term as president, the USA has frequently employed "dark tricks" in China-US trade, many companies have already taken proactive measures to shift their supply chains.

Capital Economics estimates that the demand for USA's commodities accounts for less than 3% of China's GDP, and even after the new tariffs imposed by Trump, most of this trade will continue.

China is at a growth turning point.

Swan believes that technological development—including the development of AI technologies represented by DeepSeek—and changes in the economic model will have a greater impact on China's investment return prospects.

It is believed that we will see a different economic model emerge, where the government not only provides cyclical support for the economy, and it is believed that we are at a turning point where significant structural changes in the growth model are about to occur.

It is believed that when we look back at this period, the proportion of Consumer spending in China's GDP might be seen as a turning point; for example, maybe low-income groups will lead Consumer growth... This is the big picture, and it may change people's perceptions.

Swan stated that due to macroeconomic conditions, Chinese companies have faced pressure on profits for many years, and the market's expectations for corporate profit growth are very low, which has already been reflected in their valuations.

We believe, and there is a lot of evidence to suggest, that the true driving force of the regional stock market trends is the expected growth rate, rather than just the absolute growth rate.

He added, "You often see that when these expectations begin to improve or exceed expectations, the stock market performs very well… (China) corporate profitability is currently at a historical low and valuations are close to this level. Therefore, any improvement in corporate profitability can lead to very strong investment returns."

Editor/ping