产品层面，分红险销售占比的提升有望较今年更加显著，但预计整体增幅将保持稳健，推动险企刚性负债成本进一步下行。选股层面，看好投资端边际改善和资负久期匹配更优的个股，维持行业“优于大市”评级。Zhao Yin International expects that by 2025, the NBV growth rate of listed insurance companies will return to a mid-to-high single-digit to low double-digit level.
According to the Zhiyuan Finance APP, Zhuhai International has released a research report recommending stable growth in liabilities for China Pacific Insurance (02601), Ping An Insurance (02318), and China Life Insurance (02628), along with stable dividends from PICC P&C (02328). During the equity bull market cycle, it is advised to focus on pure life insurance symbol China Life Insurance.
The report states that five listed insurance companies in mainland China have disclosed announcements for a strong growth in full-year net income attributable to shareholders, mainly due to the significant increase in investment income driven by the surge in the equity market in the third quarter of 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, it is believed that the growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance will be primarily driven by an increase in value ratios, with new premium growth expected to return to a stable norm. It is projected that the NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies will return to the mid-to-high single digits to low double digits by 2025.
In terms of products, the increase in the proportion of participating insurance sales is expected to be more significant than this year, but the overall growth rate is expected to remain stable, further pushing down the rigid liability costs for insurance companies. In terms of stock selection, there is a Bullish outlook on stocks with improved marginal investment and better asset-liability duration matching, maintaining an "outperforming the market" rating for the Industry.
