行业规模：传统晾晒市场饱和，智能替代空间广阔。伴随晾衣机功能变革，智能晾晒行业正在经历快速扩容。根据我们测算，2024 年我国智能晾衣机市场规模约321 万套，市场渗透率约17%，市场提升空间仍然可观。从竞争格局看，智能晾晒市场格局呈现为“一超多强”，好太太品牌市占率约在四成左右，是智能晾晒行业绝对龙一，若我国智能晾衣机品类渗透率提升至40%，好太太智能晾衣机业务规模尚有140%+的提升空间。Ingenious for more than 20 years, he has become the king of drying
Deeply cultivate the field of drying and focus on intelligent transformation. The company has been deeply involved in the drying field for more than 20 years. It is now a smart home enterprise integrating R&D, production, sales and service. It is a leading leader in the domestic drying industry. As of 2024, the company has been ranked in the “Top 500 Chinese Brands” for 10 consecutive years, with a brand value of 28.617 billion yuan. In 2018-2023, the company's revenue grew steadily, with a CAGR of 5.2%. Among them, revenue in 2023 also increased 22% to 1.688 billion yuan, exceeding the equity incentive target. In 2024, the company faced a severe external environment in the home furnishing industry, and revenue showed resilience. In the first three quarters, it achieved revenue of 1.069 billion yuan, or -4% year-on-year.
The intelligent drying space is vast, and the foundation for changing the main business to wisdom is stable
Industry scale: The traditional drying market is saturated, and there is plenty of room for intelligent replacement. Along with changes in the functionality of clothes dryers, the smart drying industry is undergoing rapid expansion. According to our estimates, in 2024, China's smart clothes dryer market size is about 3.21 million sets, the market penetration rate is about 17%, and there is still considerable room for market improvement. Judging from the competitive pattern, the smart drying market pattern is “one super many strong”. The market share of the Good Wife brand is about 40%, making it the absolute leader in the smart drying industry. If the penetration rate of the smart clothes dryer category in China increases to 40%, the smart clothes drying machine business scale still has room for 140% + increase.
Main business of drying: the cornerstone of the transformation to wisdom is steady, and performance is improving steadily. The company adheres to the product leadership strategy and continues to develop a new “moat” for the main business. As of 2023, the Group and its subsidiaries have obtained more than 1,400 national patents, which has a significant advantage over mainstream competition.
Brand side: The company has a high brand recognition rate (73.1%) and brand purchase rate (39.1%) in first-tier/new first-tier/second-tier cities, and the brand effect is remarkable. Product side: The company covers a comprehensive price range (the mainstream price range is 1000-1500 yuan), has diverse product categories and functions, and stabilizes its market share by mainly promoting smart clothes dryers with functions such as lightweight, invisible, intelligent lifting, and intelligent voice control. It is expected that in the future, along with supply chain integration and smart factory commissioning, the company's main business advantage will continue to deepen, boosting profit growth & quality and efficiency.
Multi-channel collaboration, improved product service system
Multi-channel collaboration enables continuous optimization of overall operations. Compared to most competitors, who have not developed for a long time and mainly rely on online sales channels, Good Wife has been deeply involved in the home furnishing industry for many years, has accumulated rich omnichannel resources, and has been able to achieve collaborative development through multiple channels such as offline dealer channels, online e-commerce channels, and engineering channels. 2024H1, the company's online/offline model revenue accounted for 63%/34%, respectively. Looking at e-commerce channels, the company has a first-mover advantage in traditional e-commerce platforms. In 2024, Tmall/Jingdong's category market share was 31%/40%, far ahead of the market, but with e-commerce competition becoming more intense, the company is also actively exploring new channels such as Douyin and Kuaishou to expand its footprint; from offline channels, the company has strong terminals & after-sales services, and terminal sales service outlets have covered 100% of the country's prefecture-level cities to escort product sales. In addition, the company also lays out high-quality customers on the engineering side, and is looking forward to future expansion.
High potential categories: Multiple categories are ready to go. Smart door locks are the second growth curve. Smart homes are developing in multiple categories, and subsequent growth is poised to begin. The company adheres to a multi-category development strategy and has developed a multi-dimensional layout around the smart home field. Currently, the company focuses on smart clothes dryers as the main product, and smart door locks have become a new growth point. In the future, it will gradually expand to smart categories such as smart curtains, electric towel racks, smart lighting, smart gateways, switches, sockets, etc., gradually implementing a multi-scenario and widely linked smart ecological product package for the whole house, and undertaking medium- to long-term growth tasks in the company's performance. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.26/0.32/0.38 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 21/17/14x, covered for the first time, and given a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
1. The increase in the penetration rate of smart drying products falls short of expectations; 2. The competitive pattern of the industry deteriorates; 3. Prices of raw materials fluctuate greatly; 4. Real estate sales and completion fall short of expectations; 5. Profit forecasts fall short of expectations.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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