The performance of the 2025 Spring Festival travel chain sector was divided. Among them, the number of travelers slightly exceeded expectations, and the tourism boom continued.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that according to the Ministry of Transportation's pre-holiday forecast, the movement of people across regions throughout society is expected to reach 9 billion during the 40-day Spring Festival travel season, corresponding to a 6.9% year-on-year growth rate. According to the cumulative growth rate data for the previous 22 days, it is better than expected. According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic travelers nationwide was 0.501 billion/ +5.9%. The total domestic travel cost was 677.002 billion yuan/ +7.0%, and the implied customer unit price was 1,351 yuan/ +1.0%. The performance of the 2025 Spring Festival travel chain sector was divided. Among them, the number of travelers slightly exceeded expectations, and the tourism boom continued.
Looking ahead to the holiday, it is recommended to focus on: 1) the demand for leisure experiences has just become necessary; I am optimistic about the OTA sector benefiting from beta boom+pattern improvement; individual stocks in natural scenic spots that are supported by peak season traffic in the first half of the year, traffic improvements, or catalyzed by hot spots; 2) individual stocks with excellent dividend performance; 3) individual stocks.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Travel during the Spring Festival travel season: Slightly better than expected.
According to data from the Ministry of Transport, 2025/1/14 to 2/4 (22 days before the Spring Festival travel season), there were 5.482 billion people movements across regions, +7.6% compared to the same period during the Spring Festival in '24 and +21.5% compared to the same period during the Spring Festival in '19. According to the Ministry of Transport's pre-holiday forecast, it is estimated that the movement of people across regions throughout society will reach 9 billion during the 40-day Spring Festival travel season, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 6.9%. According to the cumulative growth rate data for the previous 22 days, it is better than expected.
Domestic travel: Under a high base, the number of visitors maintained a 5.9% increase. Ice and snow, cold weather, and intangible heritage are hot tourist spots.
According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic travelers was 0.501 billion/ +5.9%, the total domestic travel cost was 677.002 billion yuan/ +7.0%, and the implied unit price was 1,351 yuan/ +1.0%; in terms of consumer image & behavior, the number of travelers from rural areas grew faster, with an average travel radius of 233.1 km/ +2.3%. Key listed companies, such as Mount Emei, received 0.3875 million/ +4.01% of visitors. Under the high base figures of Huangshan Mountain and Changbai Mountain, the average number of daily performances of the Songcheng Performing Arts Asset Project is increasing.
Inbound and outbound tourism: The increase in inbound and outbound visitors was higher than that of domestic travel, and the expansion of visa-free entry+ChinaTravel hotspots promoted inbound tourism.
The number of inbound visitors was 3.4321 million/ +6.2%, including 0.6995 million foreign visitors, 2.7326 million visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan; 3.7838 million outbound tourists from Chinese citizens/+5.2%. According to data from the State Administration of Immigration, border inspection agencies across the country guaranteed a total of 14.366 million Chinese and foreign visitors during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year, which is the same as the average level of the 2019 Spring Festival. Among them, there were 7.671 million/ +5% for mainland residents, 5.737 million/ +5.6% for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents, and 0.958 million/ +22.9% for foreigners. According to Ctrip's “2025 Spring Festival Travel Summary Report”, during the platform's short-distance outbound travel, orders to Japan doubled compared to last year's Spring Festival; orders for long-term travel destinations such as the US, Spain, Italy, and France increased by 53%, 82%, 56%, and 50%, respectively.
Hotels: RevPAR declined by about 20% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, mainly due to the decline in occupancy rates.
According to Hotel Home, compared with data from the first to the seventh day of the new year in '24 and '25, the RevPAR ratio for hotels nationwide (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) was -18.9%, OCC was -8.9pct year-on-year, and ADR -5.7% year-on-year. The main reasons for the 2025 Spring Festival Hotel RevPAR decline a lot are: 1) when the 2024 Spring Festival is superimposed on Valentine's Day, and there is a certain high base for hotel demand; 2) supply in the hotel industry will continue to grow in 2024, leading to oversupply in parts of the industry, etc. In terms of grade, the decline in high-end was the lowest (-15.3%), followed by luxury models (-16.8%). It is speculated to be related to the better release of demand for leisure and vacation during the Spring Festival.
Catering: The customer flow performance of representative chain brands is relatively lackluster.
According to Jiuqian Zhongtai, the average daily comparison between New Year's Eve and the first seven days represents a year-on-year turnover rate of -12% for hot pot brands, -27% for sauerkraut and fish brands, -21% for each cup volume, and -24% for coffee brand stores. The relatively lackluster performance is speculated to be related to a high base, diverting food demand from local business districts when traveling back home, and changes in the brand's own potential cycle.
Tax exemption: The amount of duty-free shopping on the outlying islands of Hainan fell by double digits, and the customer unit price increased year-on-year.
According to Haikou Customs data, during the Spring Festival (January 28 to February 4), Haikou Customs supervised a total amount of 2.094 billion yuan/ -15.9% of duty-free shopping on the outlying islands, 0.2405 million people, -19.2%, and per capita consumption of 8,706 yuan/ +4.2%.
Investment advice
The performance of the Spring Festival travel chain sector was divided. Among them, the number of travelers slightly exceeded expectations, and the tourism boom continued. Looking ahead to the festival, it is recommended to focus on: 1) Demand for leisure experiences is just becoming needed. We are optimistic about the OTA sector, which will benefit the beta boom + pattern improvement. Individual stocks in natural scenic spots that are supported by peak season traffic in the first half of the year, improved traffic, or catalyzed by hot spots. 2) Those with excellent dividend performance, such as Yum China (09987). 3) Individual Alpha Logic stocks, such as Dashi Shares (01405) (pizza products+delivery+brand competitiveness, same store growth, accelerated store opening) and Tongqing Building (605108.SH) (compensation for wedding demand, declining capital expenditure).
Risk Alerts
Consumption power recovery has fallen short of expectations, industry price wars, labor shortages, sharp increases in raw material prices, etc.
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Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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