個別では、ディスコ＜6146＞や東エレク＜8035＞などの一部半導体関連株が堅調に推移。また、ファーストリテ＜9983＞、三菱重工業＜7011＞、任天堂＜7974＞、フジHD＜4676＞、キーエンス＜6861＞などが上昇した。ほか、想定以上の業績回復や自社株買いを評価された日本電気硝子＜5214＞が急騰、ミガロホールディングス＜5535＞、ルネサスエレクトロニクス＜6723＞、AZ丸和HD＜9090＞などが値上がり率上位となった。The Nikkei average rose slightly, closing the morning session at 38,888.04 yen, up 56.56 yen (Volume estimated at 1 billion 81.34 million shares).
On the previous day, the Dow Inc in the USA closed up by 317.24 dollars at 44,873.28 dollars, while Nasdaq finished up 38.31 points at 19,692.33 points. Concerns over Alphabet's disappointing earnings led to selling in the tech sector, which varied after the opening. Although Alphabet's decline weighed on the Nasdaq, the rise of semiconductor NVIDIA offset it, and the index recovered to positive territory towards the end. The Dow was supported by expectations of additional rate cuts, a decline in interest rates, and a weaker dollar, remaining robust throughout the day and expanding its gains towards the close.
Against the backdrop of a rising US stock market with all major stock indices up, on the 6th, the Nikkei average opened up by 146.10 yen at 38,977.58 yen for the third consecutive rise. Notably, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX Index), comprising major semiconductor-related stocks, rose by 2.31%, showing a higher rate of increase compared to the Dow and Nasdaq, providing support for semiconductor-related shares in the Tokyo market. Additionally, the decline in US long-term interest rates in overseas markets also contributed to this sense of security. However, in the foreign exchange market, the yen strengthened and the dollar weakened, putting pressure on stock prices of export-related companies in the Tokyo market, leading to a reduction in the gains after an initial buying spree.
Individually, some semiconductor-related stocks like Disco and Tokyo Electron performed well. Other stocks like Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, NINTENDO CO LTD, Fuji HD, and Keyence also saw increases. Additionally, Japan Electric Glass soared as its earnings recovery exceeded expectations, along with Share Buyback, while Migaro Holdings, Renesas Electronics, and AZ Maruwa HD recorded high rates of increase.
On the other hand, certain automotive-related stocks like Toyota Motor and Honda were sluggish, as were financial stocks such as Mitsubishi UFJ and Mitsui Sumitomo. Moreover, SOFTBANK GROUP CO, Recruit HD, Laser Tech, and IHI saw declines. JMDC faced selling pressure with higher hurdles to achieve its full-year plan, while Kanadevia sharply dropped due to a significantly reduced profit forecast for the October to December period. Other stocks such as Avant Group, Matsukaze, and Intelligent Wave also ranked high in terms of declining rates.
By industry, securities and commodity futures trading, air transportation, and other products rose, while transportation equipment, information and communications, and nonferrous metals declined.
In the afternoon session, the Nikkei average is expected to continue showing a sluggish trend. Naoki Tamura, a member of the Bank of Japan's Policy Board, stated today that 'it is necessary to raise the policy interest rate to at least around 1% by the second half of 2025,' and the foreign exchange market has seen a stronger yen and weaker dollar. Mr. Tamura appears to be positioned as the most hawkish among the nine policy members, demonstrating a strong willingness to continue policy normalization. Should the yen strengthen further, it may pose headwinds to domestic export-related stocks, while attention may shift more towards domestic demand-related stocks. However, there are also those waiting to gauge the results of the Japan-US summit scheduled for the early hours of the 8th, leading to a reluctance for active buying, and a lackluster price movement is likely to continue in the afternoon session.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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