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特朗普贸易政策推动避险需求,黄金价格一飞冲天!

Trump's trade policy has driven the demand for safe-haven assets, and Gold prices have soared!

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 5 11:21

According to Zhitong Finance APP, recently, investors are worried about tariff issues, but the Gold market has become a highlight. As US President Donald Trump continues to release threats regarding tariffs, market uncertainty is rising.

As of the time of writing, Gold prices have risen nearly 9%, approaching a historic high of $2,900 per ounce, while Gold prices for 2024 have accumulated an increase of nearly 30%. Meanwhile, the performance of mining stocks has been even stronger. $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$It has increased by 18% this year.

Despite the significant increase, investors still need to be cautious about market risks. However, if Gold prices continue to rise, mining stocks may still have room for further increases, and this possibility is increasing.

According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks in emerging market countries such as Poland, Turkey, India, and China are making large purchases of Gold by the end of 2024. Joe Cavatoni, a senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, stated, "Emerging market central banks are bullish on Gold and have the ability to increase their shareholding further. Strategically, they will continue to be major buyers of Gold."

The core factor for the recent rise in Gold prices is still the trade policies of the Trump administration. Notably, the surge in Gold prices has coincided with the strengthening of the US Dollar, which is not common historically. Kinesis Money market analyst Frank Watson pointed out that typically, a strong US Dollar would exert pressure on Gold prices that are denominated in Dollars. However, due to market unease over the economic and inflation impacts from US trade policies, the safe-haven attributes of Gold remain strong. In other words, Trump’s trade policies may be "overriding" the suppressive effect of a strong Dollar on Gold prices.

Not only Gold but also Silver prices have seen a strong rise. This year, Silver prices have increased by about 13%. Allegiance Gold Chief Operating Officer Alex Ebkarian stated in an interview that market uncertainty will continue to drive the prices of Gold and Silver upwards. He noted, "In a high-risk environment, the appeal of physical Gold and Silver is even stronger, as they eliminate counterparty risk and provide reliable value storage." In addition, JPMorgan recently delivered Gold Futures worth about $4 billion, which is considered a hedging strategy against potential trade disruptions.

Looking ahead, State Street SPDR's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Arone predicts that this year Gold prices may break through the $3,000 mark. He stated, "Geopolitical risks and structural changes in Global monetary and fiscal policies will further boost the Gold market." Arone believes that global central banks may continue to purchase Gold through 2025, which will support Gold prices and possibly lead to increased investor interest in Gold.

For mining stocks, even after a round of significant increases, valuations remain relatively reasonable.$Golden Minerals (AUMN.US)$The current PE is about 12 times the expected earnings for 2025, lower than its past five-year average of 15 times valuation. In addition, the current PE of this ETF is$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$about 45% lower, far above its usual 20% discount level, which indicates that mining stocks still have attractiveness in the overall market.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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