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主攻和佯攻:字节跳动的视频迷魂阵

Main Attack and Pretend Attack: ByteDance's Video Ecstasy

远川科技评论 ·  Mar 4, 2020 21:09

Xu Zheng's "embarrassing Mom" made its premiere on platforms such as Douyin, watermelon video, Jinri Toutiao and Douyin volcanic version, bypassing the cinema.

Some people think that this will bring about changes in the film industry, some think that this is just a byte-beating customer acquisition marketing, others think that this is a byte jump into the army commander video field test.

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The action is so big.Does byte beat really want to make a long video?

We don't think so.

Before talking about byte jumping to make a long video, you need to talk about the short video matrix of the headlines.

All-in short video: three musketeers in the headlines

In 2016, Zhang Yiming proposed at Jinri Toutiao creators' meeting that short videos are a new entrepreneurial outlet. Jinri Toutiao will all in short videos, spending 1 billion yuan to subsidize short video creators. This has becomeA turning point in the field of short video.

Jinri Toutiao launched three short video platforms, watermelon video + Douyin + volcano mini video.

Watermelon video, originally called Toutiao Video, is a section of Jinri Toutiao app. Zhang Nan believes that China must have its own YouTube, so under his efforts, Toutiao became independent from Jinri Toutiao in May 2016.

The headlines divided the positions for the three brothers:Douyin is the music short video community, volcano short video counterpart Kuaishou, watermelon video pairing YouTube.Within the byte beat, Jinri Toutiao, Watermelon Video and mantis shrimp are known as Big Toutiao, while Douyin and Volcano Mini Video are under Interactive Entertainment.

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The short video matrix of Jinri Toutiao

As the son of Jinri Toutiao, Toutiao Video has received huge traffic support, coupled with Zhang Nan's own background as a user growth, Watermelon Video has reached 10 million daily active users in the first year of its establishment.

In media reports, watermelon videos are also calibrated with YouTube and are considered to be the largest PUGC (professional content production + user content production) platform in China. The fast-growing watermelon video is the eldest son to inherit the family business.

But then two fast-rising contestants completely broke the pattern. September 2016Douyin was establishedSubsequently, Douyin attracted a large number of young students and white-collar workers with magic music, the right 14 seconds, and the vertical full-screen movie feel.

After all, it's so cool to slump on the sofa and browse Douyin after school.

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During the Spring Festival in 2018, Douyin's daily active users surpassed watermelon videos and volcano videos and started explosive growth. The number of daily active users of Douyin was 30 million in January 2018, exceeded 250 million in December 2018, and exceeded 400m at the beginning of this year.

Douyin has become the first phenomenal product in the post-Internet era.

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Douyin's daily active users (unit: 100 million)

Douyin not only became the first race on the Volcano Video track, but also accounted for more than half of the watermelon video track.

Douyin and Volcano Mini Video were both initially positioned as UGC, with user-generated content. Watermelon video positioning is PUGC, specializing in content production + user production content.

But Douyin has spawned a group of up owners with millions of followers, and these up owners became famous and began to transform into professional content producers. Some Douyin up owners are professionals themselves or have professional teams.

Although the three products have their own positioning, butIn essence, it is still an internal horse racing mechanism.There is no question of who occupies whose track, who can run out and who is good.

Watermelon video is under pressure from Douyin in the internal short video matrix, while external direct rival Bilibili Inc. is going straight to the watermelon video lair:Bilibili Inc. is becoming more and more like YouTube.

At first, everyone thought Bilibili Inc. was just a two-dimensional community, with a group of otaku sitting in front of the computer eating instant noodles, watching Kawayi's 2233 mother and brushing the barrage.

But with the growth of users, people began to watch movies, pet cats, listen to birds and even study advanced mathematics in Bilibili Inc.. Taking the second dimension as the foothold, Bilibili Inc. began to expand the radius.

Now, Bilibili Inc. has 2299 channels, covering almost all the subdivisions. Although there is still a long way to go from YouTube, Bilibili Inc. has become the first short video platform in China that can really start benchmarking YouTube.

Short video circuit, Douyin basically won, YouTube circuit, Bilibili Inc. has also risen.Watermelon video needs to be repositioned.In August 2018, Watermelon Video announced its entry into the commander's video, investing 4 billion in homemade variety shows.

For a time, the media reported one after another, and even a headline said: "as the carrier of the long video strategy, watermelon video is gradually returning to the center of the stage!" It seems that the long video track, which is tripod by Aiyou Teng, will be the main direction of watermelon video.

Young man, if you believe it, you are too na ï ve.

Mode traps: the pits in the long video track

Byte beat never said anything about making a long video.

In 2016, at the second Toutiao creators' Conference, Zhang Yiming made it clear thatAll in short video.Since then, Zhang Yiming has not said on any occasion that this strategy has changed.

I'm afraid it's not that simple to make Zhang Yiming jump the big pit of the long video.

On the surface, the well-known reasons are:The cost of long video content is high, but the willingness of users to pay is low, the advertisement is truncated by short video, and the revenue can not cover the cost, resulting in a huge loss on the long video platform.

The whole long video has been developed for 16 years, dozens of players in the middle have ups and downs, and none of them is profitable.

Sohu.com Ltd lost money for 14 years, and BABA lost 7.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, mostly from Youku. According to China Business report, Tencent Video's loss in 2018 could be as high as 8 billion.

Long video Bazu Letv is even more miserable, with an estimated loss of 11.2 billion yuan in 2019, shareholders want to smash the company, and the boss does not know when he will be able to return home.

After iQIYI, Inc. went public, the dilemma of the long video was put on the table. two

In 2009, iQIYI, Inc. had as many as 500 million monthly active users, 107 million paying users, 14.4 billion member revenue and 8.3 billion advertising revenue, but the cost of content was as high as 22.2 billion, resulting in iQIYI, Inc. 's annual loss of 10.3 billion.

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IQIYI, Inc. 's net profit from 2015 to 2019 (unit: 100 million yuan)

Everyone is losing money, and everyone is clenching their teeth. But the truth is:The formation of payment habits, the extinction of online piracy and the decline in the cost of content can be called the "three delusions of life" of video giants.

None of them is easy to achieve.

First of all, aboutThe habit of paying.IQIYI, Inc. currently has an annual membership fee of RMB218 for iOS, accounting for 0.30% of China's per capita GDP, and an annual fee of RMB178for Android, accounting for 0.24%. Compared with Netflix Inc, the most advanced package is $15.99 per month, accounting for 12.99 per capita GDP0.30%, per month in the United States, accounting for 0.23%.

Although the proportion looks similar, when people buy things, they should look not only at the absolute price, but also at the same time.Frame of reference.For example, pay for video sites in China with reference to free piracy or cable TV worth 360 yuan a year. In the United States, the reference is the annual Cable fee of $1000 a year (usually including broadband).

No wonder there are the following jokes: lipstick 500: buy!

Two thousand sneakers: buy!

Video member 20 yuan: are you there? XX member can lend me!

Second,Internet piracyIt's a problem. I won't go into details about this. Although piracy is not as easy to find as it used to be, it is impossible to hold the masses' ability to find resources to keep pace with the times. Otherwise, do you think Xunlei Ltd's immense throughput is all about the postgraduate entrance examination?

Last,The cost of content decreasesIt's a problem. High-quality content is scarce and priced through the market, so it is impossible to expect a pay limit to reduce the cost of content, while non-high-quality content is difficult to retain users.

Reducing costs through homemade content seems to be a way out, but the barriers are high. Film and television variety is a creative industry, even professional film and television companies can not guarantee the continuous and stable output of high-quality content.

Foreign giants such as Netflix Inc and HBO have actually formed a complete closed loop:High-quality homemade content → attracts and maintains a large number of paying users → membership fees to ensure the production budget → high-quality homemade content.

China's long video giants still have a long way to go to achieve this closed loop. Let's take iQIYI, Inc. as an example. It may need to reach the level of 200 million paying users before it can form a stable closed loop. It may take many years to wait because of the first two factors mentioned above.

And watermelon video 4 billion self-made variety IP, such as "me and Brothers", "Danhang Line", "number one Action" and "Life Choice questions", did not become a big IP, and there was not even any score on Douban.

Therefore, in the context of "Youai Teng" profit is far away, how can byte beat be optimistic about long videos? Aren't 4 billion original variety shows exciting enough? In that case, why buy the copyright of "embarrassing Mom" in watermelon video? What about a big event during the Spring Festival?

First of all, let me give you the answer:It was a very clever feint.

Defend Douyin: main attack, feint and diversion

Before we unravel the video obsession of byte system, let's correct a misconception, that is:

The business model of the content platform is to attract users to open and stay by providing high-quality content, and to make a profit by inserting advertisements.

The above is the mainstream consensus, but it is ridiculously wrong.

It is widely believed that the main role of television stations is to broadcast high-quality content such as news, TV dramas and variety shows, boost ratings, and then make a profit in the form of advertisements.

I would like to quote a passage from the book "HBO's content Strategy" to correct this misunderstanding:

"the purpose of commercial television is not to inspire, educate, inform or inspire people, nor is it for entertainment. Commercial television exists to help advertisers attract people's attention as much as possible. To achieve this goal, commercial television will provide various forms of entertainment content, and occasionally provide content that can inspire and educate people. "

Whether it is a TV station or a video platformIts primary purpose is to "help advertisers attract customers".Providing quality content is only a means to this end.

Therefore, the correct version of the statement at the beginning should be:The significance of the existence of the content platform is to help advertisers attract customers. The lower the cost to achieve this goal, the more valuable the content platform will be.

Therefore, Douyin's "short video + UGC+ algorithm recommendation" mode, according to user portraits to achieve accurate push, through the algorithm to filter out a large number of high-quality supply, compared with the long video company to spend a lot of money to produce shows, the cost is very low.

Users can browse about 300,500 videos after browsing Douyin for an hour, and 20 short video ads can be seamlessly inserted in the middle. While watching an hour of long video, there are only a few advertising positions, and it is easy to interrupt the plot and make users bored.

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Typical advertisements on Douyin:Drama + high precision release

Therefore, the Douyin model is naturally much more efficient than the traditional long video model in terms of "helping advertisers attract customers".

From this point of view, whether it is Douyin or headlines, when faced with traditional video sites and news sites, they are essentiallyThe mode innovation brought by technology, the victory of high latitude and low latitude, rolling victory.

This is also the essential reason why the advertising revenue of Toutiao and Douyin can grow at a rocket rate. Douyin aims to generate 50 billion yuan in revenue in 2019, compared with 20 billion yuan in 2018.

Under the background that Jinri Toutiao app has vaguely touched the ceiling, Douyin and TikTok are the biggest grab and main direction of byte beating, and for Zhang Yiming, we must defend the fruits of Douyin's victory.

The efficient mode of short video, you can see the byte jump, other people can also see it. And the fiercest attack on Douyin is obviously the love Youteng that used to do long videos. And use watermelon video to make a pretentious feint, set a fire in the enemy's backyard, involve the enemy's energy and resources, four or two thousand jin, this is a clever strategy to fight a defensive war.

Although the first echelon formed by Douyin and Kuaishou Technology has far left the second echelon, for byte beat, this defensive battle is far from over. The seemingly stable pattern of the outside world may only be a very short-lived state in the long history of an industry.

Byte beat may remember that at the beginning, standing in front of the huge traffic entrance of long video, BAT spent a lot of money and destroyed the PPS covering long video user 1Acer 3 in three years, which established the top three industry pattern of Youai Teng.

They are the winners of the long video era. Ten years later, the new giants and the old giants stand together at the barrier of the short video era, with the vast resources behind, their strategies and tactics, representing the top level in the history of China's business war.

What they are fighting for is a new era.

The video war is far from over, please look forward to the next episode of the "video war" series.

Edit / Edward

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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