外部环境上，Source: China International Capital Corporation
Authors: Liu Gang, Wu Wei, et al.
Summary
During the Spring Festival, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on China, but then announced on the evening of February 3 to postpone the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days, further confirming our view that under the 'real constraints' like inflation, tariffs are more likely to be moderate and gradual. As a result, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline on the first trading day after the holiday, but surged the next day due to the postponement of the tariffs against Mexico and Canada, which aligns with our previous assessment that the additional 10% tariff would have a limited impact on the market.
In the external environment, Trump's gradual tariff increase approach basically aligns with expectations, with relatively controllable short-term impacts. Our previous calculations indicated that in a 30% tariff scenario (an additional 10% on the 19% base), the market's reaction might resemble that after the third round of tariffs in April 2019. This is because it conforms to expectations and the actual impact is controllable. However, this also means that expectations for strong fiscal stimulus during the Two Sessions may not be very high in the short term.
Domestically, the overall consumption during the Spring Festival holiday warmed up, but the seemingly strong consumption presents certain structural differences and a situation of volume increase with price decrease. At the same time, considering that service consumption has consistently rebounded ahead post-pandemic, its overall economic representation is limited in scale, and further growth recovery remains to be observed. On the other hand, the PMI for manufacturing and services in January both showed a significant decline, indicating that economic recovery before the holiday still requires more policy support.
Therefore, under the current circumstances where external disturbances are relatively controllable and internal trends are showing signs of recovery but with some divergence, we believe that the probability of a fiscal policy with 'sufficient strength' being realized before the Two Sessions remains limited. In this context, the market may reflect a volatile structure after periodic fluctuations during the policy vacuum, awaiting corporate annual report performances and policy directions from the Two Sessions to provide guidance for the next steps.
Even if the overall Index maintains volatility, it is still possible to create structural market trends that align with current industrial trends and policy support directions. During the Spring Festival, domestic AI startup company released the latest model DeepSeek-R1, attracting global attention. We expect that after the holiday, demand in related industries such as computing power, chips, data services, and communications may be stimulated, focusing on structural investment opportunities in Technology and AI.
Main text
What is the market outlook after the holiday?
Market trend review.
Before the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market saw a recovery in sentiment, rebounding for two consecutive weeks after a correction at the start of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising back above 20,000 points. During the Spring Festival, Trump's tariff policy was implemented[1], and on the first trading day after the holiday (February 3), the Hong Kong stocks experienced a slight dip, but the next day the market surged due to the postponement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico[2]. From January 20 to February 3, the Hang Seng TECH Index rose by 5.5%, while the MSCI Chinese Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Index rose by 4.1%, 3.8%, and 3.3% respectively. In terms of sectors, Information Technology (+5.9%), Media and Entertainment (+5.8%), and Consumer Discretionary (+5.1%) led the gains, while Energy (-1.2%), Materials (-1.0%), and Utilities (-0.7%) lagged behind.
Chart: From January 20 to February 3, the MSCI Chinese Index rose by 4.1%, with sectors like Information Technology, Media and Entertainment, and Consumer Discretionary leading the gains.
Market outlook
受特朗普上任后对华态度较预期温和、六部委联合发文推动中长期资金入市等相关影响，节前1月20日当周恒指上涨2.5%，沪深300上涨0.5%，但乐观情绪在节前最后一个交易日（1月27日）有所降温。春节期间，国内人工智能初创企业发布最新模型 DeepSeek-R1[3]，引发全球关注。海外方面美联储1月FOMC决定暂停降息，特朗普对墨西哥与加拿大加征25%关税、对华加征10%额外关税落地。受此影响，节后首日开盘港股一度走低，但随后低开高走，尾盘企稳。2月3日晚，特朗普宣布暂缓对加墨两国的关税政策，次日市场旋即大幅反弹。这也再度印证了我们对于通胀等“现实约束”下关税更可能是温和而渐进的观点（《2025年开年的关键变数》），以及此前对于额外加征10%关税对市场影响有限的判断（《开年回调的原因与前景》）。
图表：节前港股市场情绪有所回暖
从春节期间的外部环境看，特朗普渐进式的加征关税思路基本符合预期，短期影响相对可控。我们此前测算，30%关税（19%的基础上额外加征10%）情形，市场的反应可能更多类似2019年4月第三轮关税后。一是因为基本符合预期，二是因为实际影响可控，赤字率抬升约0.5%便可予以应对（《关税的可能路径及影响》）。当时在经历了2018年贸易摩擦后的持续下行和2019年初的快速修复反弹后，市场对关税已计入较多预期。同时，在政策持续的宽松对冲下，2019年增长也逐步企稳，因此在4月后第三轮200 billion美元25%关税出炉后，市场虽仍有扰动但维持震荡。但也正因此，短期内对于两会财政政策强刺激的预期可能也难以抱有很强期待。我们测算，要解决目前累积的产出缺口和信用收缩问题，或需要“一次性”（非多年规模累加）且“新增”（非同科目下已有支出）7-8 trillion元广义赤字（《港股市场2025年展望：密云不雨》）。目前已知同口径下的规模约为3 trillion元左右（赤字率如果提升到4%对应1 trillion元左右，加上当年2 trillion元化债），考虑到杠杆水平限制、利率下行和汇率贬值空间均相当受限等“现实约束”，增量刺激会有，但过高的期待可能并不现实。
美联储 1 月FOMC会议决定按兵不动，维持基准利率在 4.25-4.5%不变，与市场预期一致，尤其是 12 月意外走弱的通胀和强劲的就业数据进一步支持了本次暂停降息的决策。但我们认为，没有必要就此认为美联储后续无法降息。从利率的反身性效果看，当前越不预期降息反而有助于降息，就像去年 9 月越担心衰退反而越不会衰退一样（《暂停降息才能继续降息》）。现在高利率的反身性可能会使得未来一段时间更多数据转弱，这反而有助于压低利率和成本，推动部分降息预期回归，近期美债利率从高位已经回落30bp也体现了这一点。因此总体看，春节期间的海外环境（关税也好、美联储暂停降息也罢）并没有大幅改变原有的宏观路径（《港股市场2025年展望：密云不雨》）。
从国内基本面上看，春节假期整体消费有所回暖：1）旅游出行上，据交运部统计，自1月14日春运首日至2月2日，全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达到4.8 billion人次，与2024年同期相比总量增长7.2%，创历史同期新高[4]。据中国电信文旅大数据测算，截至 1 月 31 日，全国春节游客接待总人次达 0.49 billion，按可比口径增长 8%[5]。2）餐饮上，据商务部数据，春节假期前4天（1月28日至31日），全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额比去年同期增长5.4%[6]；重点监测餐饮企业营业额同比增长5.1%；美团数据则显示截至 1 月 16 日，年夜饭线上预订量同比增长 305%[7]。3）电影票房上，灯塔数据显示，截至2月3日17时，2025年春节档总票房（含预售）突破8.2 billion元人民币，创历史新高[8]。
但值得注意的是，表面强劲的消费也存在一定结构性差异和量增价减的情形，如春节超过3成国内目的地机票价格均有不同程度下降、非遗小城的预订订单量同比上涨4倍，以及小城市观影需求大增等现象，均反映出一定的下沉消费和降级倾向。同时，考虑到疫情后服务消费一贯复苏先行，从体量上对整体经济代表意义有限，后续增长修复仍有待观察。另一方面，1月制造业、服务业PMI均明显回落，表明节前经济修复仍有待更多政策支持。1月制造业PMI回落幅度大于季节性，相较上月下降1个百分点（2015-2019年1月PMI平均环比回落0.2个百分点），再度降至收缩区间，其中供需两端的生产指数及新订单指数均有所回落，企业规模上大、中、小型企业均低于临界值；非制造业PMI则相较上月下降2个百分点，其中服务业和建筑业分别较上月下降1.7个百分点及3.9个百分点，但受春节影响与居民出行消费相关的航空运输、住宿、道路运输、餐饮业则位于高景气区间，与春节假期整体消费表现一致。
Chart: The box office for movies during the Spring Festival in 2025 reached a historical high.
Note: The statistical period for the Spring Festival is from the first day of the lunar new year to the sixth day of the lunar new year each year.
Chart: January Manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range.
Therefore, under the current circumstances where external disturbances are relatively controllable, and there is a warming trend internally but with some differentiation, we believe the likelihood of a "sufficiently strong" fiscal policy being implemented before the two sessions is still limited. In this situation, the market during the policy vacuum period may reflect more of a fluctuating structure after phase volatility, waiting for corporate annual report performance and policy trends from the two sessions to provide the next direction. We still advise investors to intervene during the downturn, but to take profits appropriately during the exuberance, while paying attention to the structure rather than the overall index. Under the current approach of stabilizing leverage, even if the overall index maintains fluctuations, it is still possible to create a structural market that aligns with current industry trends and policy support directions. During the Spring Festival, the domestic AI startup released the latest model DeepSeek-R1, attracting global attention. The AI concept sector in the Chinese market led the gains, while US stocks and major computing power leaders saw a significant decline. As a result, we expect post-holiday demand to boost industries related to computing power, chips, data services, and communications, focusing on structural investment opportunities in Technology and AI.
In addition, on January 22, six ministries jointly issued a document to promote medium and long-term funds entering the market, proposing to strive for 30% of the newly added premium by large state-owned insurance companies to be invested in the A-shares and other stock markets starting from 2025; and to promote the implementation of the second batch of pilot projects for long-term stock investment of insurance funds, to be realized in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 100 billion yuan. The specific details and plans are still to be clarified, and whether this will lead to a diversion of southbound funds to Hong Kong stocks remains to be observed, especially since southbound funds have entered the Hong Kong stock market for three consecutive years since 2021, particularly in high-dividend segments with higher dividend yields.
In terms of allocation, the previous view is reiterated: the overall market has not yet escaped the oscillating pattern, with caution being the primary approach in the short term. Under the assumption that policy will support but overly strong expectations are unrealistic, more aggressive intervention can be made during sluggish periods, but profits should be taken moderately during euphoric times. The Hang Seng Index's critical Resistance at 19,000 points is evident in the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Compared to A-shares, Hong Kong stocks have advantages in valuation and industry structure, but a disadvantage in liquidity. Therefore, as long as the entry point is appropriate, it can provide stronger structural resilience. In terms of structure, a stable return (dividends + buybacks, especially for growth companies with a high net cash ratio) combined with structural growth is advised, such as focusing on Technology sectors like Semiconductors, AI, and Siasun Robot&Automation, as well as sectors benefiting from policy support under improving marginal demand, and more fully cleared sectors within the industry, such as appliances, Autos, Internet-related Consumer services, as well as some textiles and services. Conversely, attention should be paid to potential short-term disruptions in some export industries.
Specifically, the main logic supporting our above viewpoint, as well as the changes to pay attention to this week, mainly include:
1) The manufacturing and service sector PMIs for January were both below expectations. The manufacturing PMI for January was 49.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, and is in the contraction range. Looking at enterprise size, the PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises fell by 0.6, 1.2, and 2.0 percentage points from last month, all below the critical point. From the component indices, in the five categorization indices constituting the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index is above the critical point, while the production index, new orders index, raw materials inventory index, and employment index are all below the critical point. The non-manufacturing PMI for January was 50.2%, down 2.0 percentage points from last month. Among them, the business activity index for the construction industry was 49.3%, down 3.9 percentage points from last month; the business activity index for the service industry was 50.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from last month.
2) The January FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts. The Fed's January FOMC meeting decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the meeting statement made the following adjustments: 1) Emphasis on the resilience of the labor market, with stability maintained and unemployment rate kept low; 2) Emphasis on the lack of progress in inflation decline, which remains high. In the subsequent press conference, Powell also conveyed a more cautious message, stating that current interest rates are not strongly restrictive, and the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy, contingent upon seeing actual progress in inflation decline and weakness in the labor market.
3) The USA's fourth-quarter GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth was slightly below expectations. The actual GDP for the USA in the fourth quarter grew at an annualized 2.3%, compared to an expectation of 2.7%, with the third quarter at 3.1%. Growth in the fourth quarter continues to 'slow down', consumption has resilience, but non-residential investment and inventory have a significant drag, while government spending also saw a quarter-on-quarter decrease. Overall, the performance is not lacking, with consumption still being the main support. The effect of interest rate cuts partly translated into residential investment, but considering that rates soared again in the fourth quarter, this transmission may struggle to sustain. Moreover, improvements in non-residential investment and government investment may need to wait until the new government's policies are implemented. However, we believe that the substantial reduction in inventory should be temporary, partially related to holiday factors, and the drag on imports under tariff influence is also expected to decrease.
4) The outflow of overseas active funds has slowed, passive fund inflows have expanded, and southbound funds have significantly increased. EPFR data showed that as of January 29, the outflow of overseas active funds from the mainland Chinese stock market narrowed to 0.18 billion USD (from a prior week outflow of 0.26 billion USD) and has recorded 16 consecutive weeks of outflow. The inflow of overseas passive funds expanded to 0.54 billion USD (compared to a prior week inflow of 0.19 billion USD). Meanwhile, southbound funds saw a significant inflow of 9.08 billion HKD on a single day last week, greatly increasing from an average daily transaction amount of 1.82 billion HKD the previous week.
Chart: This week's outflow of overseas active funds has narrowed, while southbound fund inflows have expanded.
Key Events
February 7th USA non-farm employment population, February 9th China CPI and PPI data, February 12th USA CPI
[1]https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/articles/cjw41y6v7z2o/simp
[2]https://news.cctv.com/2025/02/04/ARTIVN3dVZemfUyvMePzvrVt250204.shtml
[3]https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1511297.html
[4]https://www.mot.gov.cn/zhuanti/2025chunyun/chunyunbaodao/202502/t20250203_4163589.html
[5]https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30068489
[6]http://big5.news.cn/gate/big5/www.news.cn/20250202/294eeddbf7bc4e07a66bb103158449ff/c.html
[7]https://www.toutiao.com/article/7460784992344392231/?upstream_biz=doubao&source=m_redirect
[8]https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2025-02-03/doc-ineifaiv7227612.shtml
[9]https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202501/content_7001054.htm
编辑/jayden
