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“人类史上最大的泡沫”!“黑天鹅”作者:英伟达暴跌恐是更大回调的开始

"The biggest bubble in human history!" The author of "Black Swan": NVIDIA's crash may be the start of a larger correction.

FX168 ·  Jan 29 02:38

FX168 Financial News (Asia-Pacific) reported that Nassim Taleb, the author of "Black Swan", stated that NVIDIA's 17% plunge may just be the beginning of a larger correction that investors are about to face.

Taleb pointed out that the market sell-off driven by DeepSeek has exposed the fragility of the market. He added that considering NVIDIA's sharp rise in stock price in recent years, this loss is relatively small.

As a consultant for the hedge fund Universa Investments, Taleb warned that NVIDIA's plunge (which caused the chip giant's market cap to evaporate by nearly $600 billion) could trigger a more significant decline.

"This is completely expected. Think about it, if a stock goes from 1 to 10, then drops back to 9, people start to panic," Taleb said during an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday.

On Monday, NVIDIA's stock price plummeted by 17% during the broader market sell-off triggered by DeepSeek, setting a record for the largest single-day market cap loss in history, evaporating $589 billion. The total loss for the entire market exceeded $1 trillion at market close on Monday.

However, Taleb believes that considering the rapid rise in NVIDIA's stock price in recent years, this drop is merely a "small setback."

"You build everything on hope, hoping people will use your chips, hoping chip investments won't be replaced by software or other better methods, and the fact is, similar things have already happened. This is just a warning," Taleb told Bloomberg.

Taleb pointed out that NVIDIA's pullback illustrates the fragility of the market. He mentioned that investors' funds are overly concentrated in a small portion of the market. According to Goldman Sachs' analysis, nearly half of the S&P 500 Index's earnings in 2024 will come from five companies: NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Broadcom.

Taleb also stated that people often underestimate the volatility of technology stocks in a single day, referring to this type of stock as "gray swans."

"This is just the beginning," Taleb added. "This is the beginning of people adjusting their reality, as they now realize that the market is no longer perfect. You've found a small crack in the glass, and now they realize, 'Oh, it is not flawless, maybe I should reassess.'"

China's startup DeepSeek is competing with its American counterparts with its AI model without relying on the latest chip technology, heightening concerns about investment in the AI sector in the USA.

In particular, this sell-off exposed two major risks that investors had previously overlooked: high valuations and the huge expenditures of large technology companies in the USA on AI.

Mark Spitznagel, Chief Investment Officer of Universa Investments, compared the recent surge in technology stocks to the Internet bubble and stated that the current market may be the "largest bubble in human history."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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This page is machine-translated. Futubull tries to improve but does not guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the translation, and will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by any inaccuracy or omission of the translation.