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黑天鹅作者:英伟达(NVDA.US)周一暴跌只是开始,未来回调幅度可能是两、三倍

Black Swan Author: NVIDIA (NVDA.US) plummeted on Monday is just the beginning, and future pullbacks may be two to three times larger.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 28 23:54

The author of the book "The Black Swan," Nassim Taleb, stated that the painful 17% sell-off NVIDIA faced on Monday is just the beginning. Considering the Industry risk, the actual drop for NVIDIA on Monday is quite small.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Nassim Taleb warned that investors blindly chasing the Wall Street AI craze face risks. The painful 17% sell-off of NVIDIA (NVDA.US) on Monday is just the beginning, and the future pullbacks might be double or even triple the 17% decline.

This is just the beginning, as people start adapting to reality. They now realize that it is no longer flawless—a small crack has appeared in the Glass.

So far, investors have been overly focused on one narrative: as NVIDIA maintains its dominance in the AI field, the company's stock price will continue to rise. However, considering the Industry risks, the actual drop for NVIDIA on Monday was quite small.

NVIDIA's plunge on Monday wiped out $589 billion from its Market Cap, marking the largest in the history of the US stock market. On Tuesday, NVIDIA rebounded significantly during the day.

Taleb is known for his bestseller "The Black Swan," which explores the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable events. He currently serves as a scientific advisor at Universa Investments, a fund focused on tail risk hedging that offers Insurance-like strategies to help investors protect their portfolios from severe market fluctuations.

Taleb was previously an Options Trading trader, known in the industry for his pessimistic predictions. However, his predictions do not always come true. For example, at the beginning of 2023, he warned many investors that they were not prepared for a high-interest rate era and that Assets may not inflate as wildly. But since then, fueled by the AI investment frenzy, US stocks have soared significantly.

However, Taleb and Universa Investments do not advocate for investors to completely exit the market, thereby missing potential gains, but rather suggest allocating a portion of assets in the portfolio to guard against sudden shocks.

Taleb stated that too many investors blindly drive up the stock prices of AI-related companies, while they do not actually understand how this technology works or how to succeed. He described Technology companies as "gray swans" because the market often underestimates the enormous intraday volatility that these Stocks can experience.

Taleb also reiterated his concerns about the unsustainability of USA debt. He warned that if rising labor costs are combined with aggressive tariff policies, it could trigger an "inflation explosion," and considering this risk, the USA Bonds market is not a wise investment symbol.

This article is adapted from "Wall Street Weekly," author: He Hao; edited by Liu Xuan from Zhitong Finance.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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