1、本次交易完成后，衢州市国资委将成为公司实控人。公司原控股股东香港东风投资集团持有公司8.71 亿股股份（约占总股本的46.47%），本次交易完成后，衢州智尚、衢州智威、香港投资集团及其一致行动人将分别持有公司20%、9.9%、16.6%的股份。衢州智尚及衢州智威均为衢州市国资委实控企业，因此交易完成后，公司实控人将变更为衢州市国资委。The company's recent situation
Recently, the company announced that Hong Kong Dongfeng Investment Group Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder of the company, has signed a “share transfer agreement” with Quzhou Zhishang Enterprise Management Partnership (limited partnership) and Quzhou Zhiwei Enterprise Management Partnership (limited partnership) to transfer 0.375 billion shares of the company (about 20% of the total share capital) to Quzhou Zhishang and 0.186 billion shares (about 9.9% of the total share capital) to Quzhou Zhiwei. The transfer price is 3.483 yuan/share, at a 10% discount from the closing price before the announcement.
reviews
1. After the transaction is completed, the Quzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission will become the actual controller of the company. Hong Kong Dongfeng Investment Group, the original controlling shareholder of the company, held 0.871 billion of the company's shares (about 46.47% of the total share capital). After the transaction is completed, Quzhou Zhishang, Quzhou Zhiwei, Hong Kong Investment Group and their co-actors will hold 20%, 9.9%, and 16.6% of the company's shares respectively. Both Quzhou Zhishang and Quzhou Zhiwei are actually controlled enterprises by the Quzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission, so after the transaction is completed, the actual controller of the company will be changed to the Quzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission.
2. Continue to divest the cigarette label business, focusing on the field of new energy materials. Affected by changes in industry policies and increased competition in the industry, the competitive pattern of the tobacco label industry has changed greatly in recent years, and the profit level of the industry has generally declined. The company actively adjusted its strategy, actively reduced the cigarette label business, and sold tobacco label subsidiaries one after another to reduce its dependence on the cigarette label business. At the same time, the company is actively transforming and exploring new energy materials and other businesses. Currently, its subsidiary Bosheng New Materials has developed into a leading domestic battery separator company, established good cooperation with many leading battery manufacturers, and laid out new materials such as composite copper foil/aluminum foil and copper foam around the new energy industry chain. We believe that with the gradual divestment of the tobacco label business and the change of actual controllers, the performance of the new business is climbing, and the company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance.
3. The new energy industry in Quzhou is rich in resources, and the company's new energy business is expected to develop further. Quzhou has a leading domestic new energy industry cluster, and many new energy industry chain enterprises in the region have production capacity layouts, such as Huayou Holdings, Juhua Co., Ltd., Shanshan Group, etc., involving many aspects such as lithium carbonate, electrolytes, and battery anodes. We believe that after the actual controller of the company is changed to the Quzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission, the subsidiary Bosheng New Materials is expected to enjoy supporting dividends in the regional industrial chain. The battery separator business is expected to further improve the layout of the new energy industry in the region and form a closed loop in the industry. In the future, the company is expected to build a new growth curve with the new energy materials business.
Profit forecasting and valuation
The profit forecast for 2024/2025 remains basically unchanged. The profit forecast for 2026 was introduced. The company's strategy was adjusted, the profit situation was poor, and it was in the share sale period, so it was switched to a net market ratio valuation. The current stock price corresponds to 1.0/1.0 times P/B for 2025/2026, respectively. Keep the target price of 3.2 yuan unchanged, corresponding to 1.1/1.1 times P/E in 2025/2026, respectively, with 4% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
Competition in the industry intensified; new production capacity fell short of expectations; prices of raw materials fluctuated greatly, and governance risks brought about by changes in shareholders.
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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