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调查:粘性通胀或将席卷欧洲 拉加德该“头大”了

Survey: Sticky inflation may sweep across Europe, Lagarde may be feeling "overwhelmed."

cls.cn ·  Jan 24 09:22

①According to a survey of economists, concerns about inflation in Europe have resurfaced, raising questions about whether the European Central Bank needs to pause or stop interest rate cuts in the spring; ②The interviewed economists' basic forecast of four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the European Central Bank in 2025 remains unchanged, but there are differences regarding the timing of the cuts; ③Respondents believe that U.S. policies are seen as the most severe threat to economic growth in the Eurozone.

On January 24, according to a report by Caixin, a media survey of economists revealed that inflation concerns in Europe are re-emerging, raising doubts about whether the European Central Bank needs to pause or stop interest rate cuts in the spring.

Currently, the interviewed economists' basic forecast of four rate cuts of 25 basis points by the European Central Bank in 2025 remains unchanged, and their expectations for rate cuts next week and in March are generally consistent, with each cut projected to be 25 basis points, but differences arise in April. The respondents predict that the deposit rate at the end of 2025 (currently at 3%) will range between 1.25% and 2.5%.

In light of persistent inflation in the service sector, a still strong labor market, and the opposing threats posed by trade wars, most Analysts are not optimistic, believing that the risk of mid-term inflation exceeding the 2% target now surpasses the risk of being below the target.

Meanwhile, economists are also concerned that economic growth in the region may be disappointing in the next two years.

What do economists say?

However, policymakers at the European Central Bank have not changed their course, with officials reiterating this week in Davos that inflation rates will stabilize at 2% in the coming months, especially since U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet done anything particularly unpleasant to Europe.

They also pointed out that their thoughts are unlikely to change significantly before digesting the quarterly forecasts in March, as the March quarterly forecast will reflect the impacts of new U.S. policies on Europe.

The Chief Analyst of Danske Bank A/S Sponsored ADR, Piet Christiansen, stated, "The decisions for January and March are essentially set... We are focusing on the meeting in April, which is expected to become the 'battlefield.'"

Senior Economist David Powell from the Eurozone believes, "The European Central Bank will cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points this year. However, after March, the pace of easing may shift to a quarterly action."

Dennis Shen from Scope Ratings stated, "We believe that the European Central Bank will not further cut interest rates as the market currently expects." He believes the progress in slowing core and service industry inflation has recently stalled, and a low unemployment rate remains a concern.

However, compared to the ambiguous economic outlook within the Eurozone itself, respondents believe that the policies in the USA pose the most severe threat to economic growth in the 20 countries of the Eurozone.

For instance, Dennis Shen emphasized, "Anti-tariff measures and supply chain disruptions could affect inflation expectations, as trade conflicts and de-globalization may last longer."

Former Swiss Franc Central Bank Governor Philipp Hildebrand also raised similar concerns at the World Economic Forum.

Claus Vistesen, Chief Eurozone Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out, "The biggest challenge facing the European Central Bank is that they are making policy decisions under the shadow of Trump, who could change the fundamentals with a stroke of his pen."

Fabio Balboni of HSBC stated, "The European Central Bank will essentially be in 'autopilot' mode before March. After that, the outlook will depend on the trade-off between growth and inflation, as well as the speed of monetary policy transmission. This could spark a fierce debate."

The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, still believes that the inflation rate will reach 2% this year as planned, despite a slight rise in inflation last December and service prices continuing to increase at double that rate.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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