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A股两家次高端酒企去年净利预降超7成 业绩降幅超出券商预期|财报解读

The net profit of two A-share mid-range liquor companies is expected to decline by more than 70% last year, with the decrease in performance exceeding the expectations of brokerages.| Interpretations

cls.cn ·  Jan 23 14:48

1. Shede Spirits and Jiugui Liquor are expected to see their net income attributable to the parent company decline by 70% and 90% respectively in 2024, with the drop exceeding most Brokerage predictions. 2. The Baijiu Industry is in a deep adjustment phase, with intensified squeeze competition and sales pressure on Baijiu products, especially in the mid-range segment where consumer demand is weak. 3. Goldman Sachs forecasts that Shede Spirits' goal for 2025 may be to achieve balanced growth in both volume and price, with pressures expected in the first half of the year, followed by a gradual recovery in the second half.

According to the Financial Associated Press on January 23 (Reporter Zhu Wanping), during the deep adjustment phase of the Baijiu Industry and under intense squeeze competition, the performance of mid-range liquor companies is significantly under pressure. Tonight, two mid-range liquor companies in A-shares—Shede Spirits (600702.SH) and Jiugui Liquor (000799.SZ)—announced their expectations that the net income attributable to the parent company after deductions will decline by 70% and 90% respectively in 2024, with the performance decline exceeding most Brokerage predictions.

Specifically, Shede Spirits expects total revenue in 2024 to be 5.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year; the net income attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 0.32 billion yuan and 0.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 76.29% to 81.93% year-on-year; the net income attributable to the parent company after deductions is expected to be between 0.366 billion yuan and 0.466 billion yuan, a decrease of 72.85% to 78.68% year-on-year.

Looking at the quarters, Shede Spirits expects total revenue for Q4 2024 to be 0.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 53.65% year-on-year; the net income attributable to the parent company is expected to be a loss of between 0.249 billion and 0.349 billion yuan, compared to 0.476 billion yuan in the same period last year; the net income attributable to the parent company after deductions is expected to be a loss of between 0.188 billion and 0.288 billion yuan, compared to 0.46 billion yuan in the same period last year.

Shede Spirits' performance decline last year surprised the market. Data from Wind shows that since August of last year, 31 Brokerages have made predictions on Shede Spirits' revenues and net income for 2024, with average forecasts of 5.889 billion yuan and 982 million yuan respectively, with declines of 16.83% and 44.56%. However, Shede Spirits' forecast for the performance decline far exceeds most Brokerage predictions.

Regarding last year's significant reduction in performance, Shede Spirits first attributed it to intensified competition during the industry adjustment phase, with sales pressure on Baijiu products, especially due to weak demand for mid-range products. Secondly, Shede Spirits proactively implemented the 'quantity control and price support' strategy last year; assisted Dealers in destocking and temporarily increased market investment and other factors contributed to this.

Another mid-range liquor company, Jiugui Liquor, also had unimpressive performance last year.

According to the latest announcement, Jiugui Liquor expects total revenue in 2024 to be 1.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.71% year-on-year; the net income attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 0.01 billion and 0.015 billion yuan, a decrease of 98.17% to 97.26% year-on-year; the net income attributable to the parent company after deductions is expected to be between 0.005 billion and 0.008 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.07% to 98.61% year-on-year.

(Image caption: Jiugui Liquor exhibition booth, photographed by Zhu Wanping from Caixin)

Looking at the quarters, the total revenue of Jiugui Liquor in Q4 2024 is expected to be 0.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.25%; the net income attributable to the parent is expected to be a loss of 0.041 billion yuan to -0.046 billion yuan, compared to 0.069 billion yuan in the same period last year; the net income attributable to the parent after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be a loss of 0.043 billion yuan to 0.046 billion yuan, compared to 0.067 billion yuan in the same period last year.

The decline in net income for Jiugui Liquor in 2024 was unexpected by the market and did not meet the company's revenue 'restorative growth' target set at the beginning of last year. According to Wind data, since last August, 20 brokerages have made predictions for Jiugui Liquor's revenue and net income for 2024, with average forecasts of 1.779 billion yuan and 165 million yuan, representing declines of 37.14% and 69.9%, respectively. However, the predicted decline in net income for Jiugui Liquor far exceeds the predictions of most brokerages.

Regarding last year's significant performance drop, Jiugui Liquor similarly attributes it primarily to intensified competitive pressure during the industry adjustment period; channel partners adopting conservative operational behaviors, and customers showing cautious payment willingness; the company increasing promotional efforts to reduce channel inventory, leading to an increase in sales expense ratio, among other factors.

For 2025, both Shede Spirits and Jiugui Liquor proposed to focus on key markets, increase consumer cultivation, explore growth drivers, etc., to promote company sales growth. Goldman Sachs previously pointed out in a research report that Shede Spirits' goal for 2025 might be to achieve balanced growth in volume and price, predicting that the company will still face pressure in the first half of 2025, while gradually recovering in the second half.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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